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Author Topic: Israel 2009  (Read 43166 times)
Yamor
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« Reply #75 on: December 13, 2008, 03:04:38 PM »

I think Cylon was refering to the Livni-Mofaz leadership contest, in which the exit polls were a joke.
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danny
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« Reply #76 on: December 13, 2008, 04:42:59 PM »

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #77 on: December 13, 2008, 04:58:26 PM »

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes Grin
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danny
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« Reply #78 on: December 13, 2008, 05:15:16 PM »

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes Grin

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #79 on: December 13, 2008, 05:22:35 PM »

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes Grin

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Oh, I know (see also the endless hilarity that is constituency polling in countries with fptp). Which is why it's funny Smiley
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Hash
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« Reply #80 on: December 13, 2008, 05:23:42 PM »

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes Grin

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Oh, I know (see also the endless hilarity that is constituency polling in countries with fptp). Which is why it's funny Smiley

Jonquiere-Alma polls were hilarious this year Grin. Segma did some hilarious polls this year. They should get an award.
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Cylon Candidate
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« Reply #81 on: December 13, 2008, 07:41:21 PM »

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes Grin

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Great, now we'll be talking about the Livni Effect in all primaries with women...


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Yamor
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« Reply #82 on: December 14, 2008, 06:10:33 AM »

Meretz primaries today, and this is a poll of a party with only about 1000 members I think!
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #83 on: December 14, 2008, 08:04:37 PM »

When will the primaries be held for the other major parties?
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Yamor
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« Reply #84 on: December 14, 2008, 08:29:34 PM »

Only Kadima to go, and their primaries are on 17th December.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #85 on: December 14, 2008, 09:00:50 PM »

Only Kadima to go, and their primaries are on 17th December.

Thanks.  How did the other major primaries go?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #86 on: December 14, 2008, 11:01:29 PM »

What's the voting system used for the primaries?
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Yamor
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« Reply #87 on: December 15, 2008, 04:35:25 AM »

Well, Labor were first, and they had embarrassing problems with a new electronic system, so they were pushed off a couple of days. The actual results didn't have too many suprises, although ex-leader Amir Peretz came in only at number 10.
Likud also had problems with their electronic voting system, and extended voting hours till one in the morning. The results there were not such a success for Netanyahu who's trying to move the Likud to a more centrist position, however quite a few far-right hardliners got in (although Feiglin, who's the leader of the major far-right faction got demoted from 20th to 36th, which actually is very likely to make the difference whether he gets in or not).

The voting system used is all party members select a certain amount of candidates, and maybe a local candidate etc. The final party list basically reflects this (i.e. most votes at the top, least at the bottom), except that there are reserved spots for women, arabs, druse, candidates from certain areas of the country, olim etc.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #88 on: December 15, 2008, 04:06:13 PM »

So the system used is bloc voting?
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Yamor
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« Reply #89 on: December 15, 2008, 04:59:12 PM »

Basically, however I'm not sure if they all use that. I know Likud do, and I'm almost sure Labor and Kadima also do. Of course they have different rules regarding how many candidates are chosen by each voter, and also regarding 'reserved' places (for women, minorities, local candidates etc.).
Regarding the reserved places there are also differences, with some reserved spots having a separate ballot, and some just promoting a candidate from the general vote to the reserved spot. For example, the reserved places for local candidates in the Likud primaries have a separate ballot, and each party member can only vote for the position reserved for a candidate from his area of the country.
This is actually what caused the confusion with Feiglin who originally received the 20th spot, but was then demoted to 36th. It was because the 20th spot was originally reserved for (I think) a woman, however a woman got higher then that anyway, so it was given to Feiglin. Then, however, it was decided to bump up all the reserved spots (the local candidates), so Feiglin got moved down to the next free spot, which was 36.
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danny
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« Reply #90 on: December 16, 2008, 02:50:02 PM »

there's apparently a "new" party running, which will be this years Kahanist party. the party will have a chabad rabbi at its head and Bruch Marzel in second place, and will be called "The land of Israel is ours". While the Kahanist party hasn't gotten in lately, with the problems in The Jewish Home the new party should do better in this election.
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danny
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« Reply #91 on: December 16, 2008, 03:32:35 PM »

new poll from shvakim panorama I saw on http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32419/support_for_likud_soars_before_israeli_ballot:

Likud- 34

Kadima- 20

labor- 14

Shas- 12

Yisrael beitenu- 11

"arabs"- 9

UTJ- 7

Meretz- 5

Jewish Home- 4

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #92 on: December 16, 2008, 03:39:20 PM »


Wow.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #93 on: December 16, 2008, 04:31:27 PM »

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #94 on: December 16, 2008, 04:41:50 PM »

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.
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Yamor
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« Reply #95 on: December 16, 2008, 05:52:43 PM »

It's more then quite unlikely, it's virtually impossible. No chance it'll ever happen.
Anyway, I find that poll very suprising, and I'm not putting much by it.
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Yamor
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« Reply #96 on: December 16, 2008, 06:15:49 PM »

Rumours are that the Degel Hatorah faction of UTJ may run on a joint list with Shas. That'll mean their combined list would almost definitely be the 3rd biggest party, as well as leaving it touch and go as to whether the Agudas Yisroel faction will make the Knesset at all. Haredi politics are a joke!
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Yamor
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« Reply #97 on: December 17, 2008, 04:36:07 AM »

Well, today are the Kadima primaries.
They've kept their original decision to use the new computerised system (they were considering reverting back after the problems Likud and Labor had). So far everything seems to be going smoothly.
Regarding what'll happen, no major suprises expected here, with most likely just a slight shuffling of the list from the last elections (which was actually decided by Sharon and not through primaries). Kadima didn't go out bringing in any 'big names' like Likud did, so the potential for current MK's to lose ground is much smaller.
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danny
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« Reply #98 on: December 17, 2008, 02:28:04 PM »

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?

When I say right, I mean it in the israeli sense, not in the international one. in the US I would be left leaning and I would probably have voted for Obama. My political matrix score would indicate that I'm not really right wing.
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danny
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« Reply #99 on: December 17, 2008, 02:31:24 PM »

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.

I don't mean Feiglin, there are plenty of things we disagree on. I meant someone more like Benny Begin
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