Israel 2009

[ag]

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.

I don't mean Feiglin, there are plenty of things we disagree on. I meant someone more like Benny Begin

You mean someone just a little to the right of such well-known left-wingers as Jean-Marie Le Pen and David Duke

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?

When I say right, I mean it in the israeli sense, not in the international one. in the US I would be left leaning and I would probably have voted for Obama. My political matrix score would indicate that I'm not really right wing.

I actually prefer the American right.

[ag]

Primaries seem to help Kadima

A poll from Maagar Mohot

Likud 29
Kadima 25
Shas 12
Yisrael Beteinu 12
Labor 10
Meretz 8
Yahadut Hatorah 6
Jewish Home (NU+NRP) 4
Green 4
Gil 1
"Arab Parties" 9

A fully rightwing gov't would need all the religious parties: Likud+Shas+YB+YH+JH=63. A centrist "grand coalition" of Likud+Kadima+Labor would be possible as well (64 seats).  Likud+Kadima+Shas is another possibility (66 seats). Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.

[Yamor]

Two splits were approved by the Knesset House Committee. UTJ (Yahadut Hatorah) separated into Agudat Israel and Degel Hatorah, and Meimad left Labor to run on a list with the greens. Hatikva's split from NU-NRP is expected to be approved as well.
I actually don't think the official splitting of UTJ actually means anything - IIRC, they always split at the end of Knesset sessions to gain from party funding laws. That's not to say they will definitely run together, in fact it looks more likely they won't, but this official splitting doesn't mean anything, I think.

[danny]

Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.

Considering Kadima had no problem until now with being in a coalition with YB I don't see why that would be a problem.

[danny]

Meimad left Labor to run on a list with the greens.

There are actually two green parties: "The green party", and "The green movement", with Meimad joining the latter.

[ag]

Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.

Considering Kadima had no problem until now with being in a coalition with YB I don't see why that would be a problem.

There is a difference between a coalition w/ Labor and YB, in which Kadima is the senior partner, and a coalition w/ YB and Likud, headed by Likud. Likud-Kadima-YB government would be far to the right of the natural leanings of a lot of the ex-labor people. At the very least, Kadima should be expected to try to make it a Likud-Kadima-YB-Labor.  Though, of course, this is Israel - anything unnatural is possible there.

[danny]

If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

[ag]

If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

Hadash and YB?

[danny]

If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

Hadash and YB?

Except for majority arab parties, who don't enter any coalitions.

[ag]

Meretz, YB, NRP, Shas (without Likud, Kadima or Labor)?

BTW, this, actually, may become interesting. The Arab proportion of the potential electorate, if I am not mistaken, is growing, while most non-Arab parties (other then Hadash )) ) are not getting any more attractive to them. What happens, if Arab parties + Hadash start getting consistently, say, 15 to 20 seats? It would make it pretty hard to form a minimally cohesive government just w/ Zionist parties. Furthermore, if the leftist parties plus Hadash could ever (numerically) form a government, it would be very tempting to do this (especially, if Hadash does break out a bit from the Arab ghetto - Chenin's success in TA seems to hint at such a possibility, however, small).

[danny]

Meretz, YB, NRP, Shas (without Likud, Kadima or Labor)?

BTW, this, actually, may become interesting. The Arab proportion of the potential electorate, if I am not mistaken, is growing, while most non-Arab parties (other then Hadash )) ) are not getting any more attractive to them. What happens, if Arab parties + Hadash start getting consistently, say, 15 to 20 seats? It would make it pretty hard to form a minimally cohesive government just w/ Zionist parties. Furthermore, if the leftist parties plus Hadash could ever (numerically) form a government, it would be very tempting to do this (especially, if Hadash does break out a bit from the Arab ghetto - Chenin's success in TA seems to hint at such a possibility, however, small).

Define minimally cohesive, remember that this is a country where Labor and Likud have often been in the same coalition. And labor is much more likely to invite Likud in their coalition than the arab parties. Btw if the arabs voted in the election at the same rate as Jews and voted 100% for arab parties they would already get more than 15 mandates. As for Chenin, he tried to hide his affiliation during those elections, and the number two in the list he ran on is a known Likud supporter (who now, because Chenin went back to the Knesset rather than serve in the council, is the number 1 in the party).

[ag]

Likud and Labor together is, actually, not at all unnatural - they are both in the center of Israeli political space (now joined there by Kadima). The problem is, what happens if Likud+Labor+Kadima are still nowhere near to forming the gov't and it has to be formed including multiple parties from the far ends of the political spectrum. Of course, it can be done: but the larger the proportion of the "Arabs" in the Knesset, the more it will become the norm, rather than an exception. At some point, somebody would have to get tired that sort of an arrangement

Chenin is Chenin - hard to hide Hadash will never become a mainstream party in Israeli society, but if (a huge if, of course) it starts to, consistently, gain 6-7 seats, 2-3 of them going to Jewish MKs, it will become a force that would be hard to ignore in some coalition negotiations: it may be easier for the secular parties to satisfy, then some of the religious demands. Chenin's ability to deal w/ a Likudnik only confirms this. Of course, 35% of TA residents would never vote for Hadash even in their nightmares, even if it is no longer a ghetto party - what if 10% do? No matter what, Chenin has shown he is an electoral asset. I just hope they use it.

[danny]

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

[ag]

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

[Dan the Roman]

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well. Arabs are not cohesive. Druze and Bedouins hate Palestinians intensely, so intensely that army units including them can not be used on the West Bank. What you are really asking is whether nationalist Arabs will reach that level, and that is a question that involves questions other than pure demographics, and assumes that identification will remain the same proportionally over the next 30 years which is not clear.

[ag]

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties.

Of course, I don't assume this Never-ever, honest Of course I am aware that Arabs have always been an important electorate for Labor. That's absolutely unrelated to the point I've been making.

That does not change the fact that a) the share of Arabs in the voting population is bound to grow and b) that the "mainstream" Israeli parties are becoming increasingly unattractive for the average Arab citizen. As for your last claim (about "identification"), that's the gist of the problem. It's not the Arabs' decision to identify or not to identify with the mainstream: they are not given this choice by the society at large. There is no desire on the part of the Jewish mainstream to have them "assimilated". I fully trust that if it were up to the Arab street, assimilation (at least, political) wouldn't be a problem - what I don't believe is that the Jews would let them in. That's why Hadash is important: it's the only non-Arab party that treats them as equals.

The problem is, Arabs are Israel's Jews And, of course, some Jews have always been attracted to the Communists ))

[danny]

Good news for ag, a new directive by the election committee means that polls will now have to include the arab parties separately.

[ag]

Good news for ag, a new directive by the election committee means that polls will now have to include the arab parties separately.

My Jewish soul is smiling

[Cylon Candidate]

New Ma'ariv poll puts Kadima slightly ahead: Kadima 30 seats, Likud 29 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu 13 seats, Labor 11 seats. 

http://jta.org/news/article/2008/12/26/1001827/poll-kadima-takes-lead-over-likud

[Senator Ben]

I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.

[Yamor]

There's talk of postponing the elections now. It'll probably depend on how the situation in Gaza develops. As it is most campaigning has been stopped.

[danny]

I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.

I haven't seen any polls since the fighting started, but it should help Labor.

[Yamor]

Yeah, because Barak is defence minister. It should help Livni as well, and explains why Netanyahu wants a unity government.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Will this mean a further bleeding of Labour's Arab vote?