Israel 2009

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Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Anyway, good to see Kadima in the lead, if only narrowly. Hopefully the disaster of Netanyahu will be averted.

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Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.

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More signs of a war-bump for Labor and Kadima, although this poll suggests it is Kadima, not Labor, who is benefiting the most. From Maariv, changes are based on their 10 December poll.

Kadima: 28 (+7)
Likud: 28 (-7)
Labor: 16 (+1)
Yisrael Beiteinu: 12 (+1)
Shas: 11 (-1)
Meretz: 6 (nc)
UTJ: 5 (-2)
NU-NRP: 4 (nc) (Unseparated here but will be running separately; one or both may fail to make the threshold)
"Arab parties": 10 (nc) (Not separated in the poll despite the recent decision. )
Others, incl. Greens and Gil: 0

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32573/governing_kadima_ties_likud_in_israel/

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Wait... weren't Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu in coalition together with Kadima and Labor for a while before Lieberman left the coalition?

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Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

Because the pollsters suck. They will end up with 9 to 11 seats between them and will all be in the Knesset.

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What is Lieberman under investigation for?

Taking bribes.

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Four recent polls showing tightening as Yisrael Beitenu surges:

Likud: 27
Kadima: 24
YB: 18
Labor: 13
Shas: 10
Arabs: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
NU: 3
BY: 2


Likud: 25
Kadima: 23
YB: 19
Labor: 16
Shas: 10
Arabs: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
BY: 4
NU: 3


Likud: 27
Kadima: 25
YB: 18
Labor: 14
Shas: 9
Arabs: 8
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 6
BY: 4
NU: 2


Likud: 26
Kadima: 23
YB: 19
Labor: 17
Shas: 10
Arabs: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
NU: 3
BY: 3
Gil: 2 (!)

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Yisrael Beiteinu is also benefiting from demographic trends. Most new Jewish immigrants to Israel these days come from the former Soviet Union, which is the direction YB focuses its greatest attention. They have an added bonus in appealing to a constituency which is not really familiar or comfortable with democracy and therefore maybe more inclined to be forgiving of things like taking bribes (or not understanding why it matters).

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Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...

I don't really know anything about Israeli political parties....but just by casually looking over the Wikipedia pages, I'd lean towards supporting Kadima. Anybody that knows something about Israel that can confirm or deny that that'd be a good fit for me?

You would almost certainly be a Kadima supporter. Shinui in 2003, Kadima in 2006 and now.

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Polls close in just three minutes. Exit polls will be released immediately, although of course Israeli exit polls are as unreliable as the pre-election polls. Still, whispers seem to be that Kadima will lead in the exit polls with Likud in a close second and Yisrael Beiteinu's election-day surge failing to materialize.

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Coalitions will be tough. If the exit polls are correct, the all-right coalition will need Shas. But they won't work with YB. (And the reverse, of course.)

I'm thinking Kadima-Likud-Labor grand coalition with Livni as PM.

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Composite exit polls:

Kadima: 29-30
Likud: 27-28
Yisrael Beiteinu: 14-15
Labor: 13
Shas: 9-10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4-5
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3-4
United Arab List - Ta'al: 2-4
National Union: 3
Balad: 2-3

Any party at 4 or fewer seats in the exit poll could conceivably fail to make the threshold. The margin for winning only two seats is tiny, and parties are likely to win three seats or none.

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Coalition related news: Bibi and Lieberman are reported to have started talking to each other already, while Barak has openly stated that Labour might go into opposition.

Unless Shas gives in to working with YB, they won't have the seats unless the exit polls are badly wrong. Not even the most optimistic combination of exit polls for the right gives them enough seats without Shas. And Kadima and Livni can easily demand that Livni be PM even if Kadima leads an otherwise right-wing coalition.

No, this will be a grand coalition. Maybe Kadima-Likud-YB, but probably Kadima-Likud-Labor.

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Jump in reporting to 10%; the numbers are starting to look representative of the likely final result.

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kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

I don't think Meretz would ever agree to be in a government with YB or Likud. But they wouldn't be necessary for a majority anyway.

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Jump to 27% reporting. Still pretty much matching the exit polls, maybe slightly better for Shas than they predicted and slightly worse for Labor. But it's not clear what's in and what isn't.

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Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.

now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.

they have, at least traditionally, though Barak's role as defense minister during the attack on Gaza, as well as his generally disastrous term as prime minister in the late 90s probably turned them off to Labor.

As I recall, Labor's percentage of the Arab vote was close to negligible in 2006, something like 2-3%. Higher than any other Jewish party, of course, but not enough to make any difference in terms of seats either way.

But remember that there will be basically no Arab-party votes from the army. And the Arab parties are now down to 11 seats again.

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Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

As I've pointed out multiple times, Netanyahu does not have an advantage.

"The right" has a majority of seats, but internal fractures within "the right" make it much less likely that they will be able to work together than that a grand coalition will be formed. Shas would lose all legitimacy as the primary party of the ultra-Orthodox if they agreed to a coalition with the militantly secular Yisrael Beitenu, a position only reinforced by Shas's declaration before the election that they would never work with Yisrael Beitenu. Similar holds for the smaller ultra-Orthodox parties, but they did not (as far as I am aware) make unconditional statements of refusal to work with Yisrael Beitenu.

So, what about grand coalitions? There are a number of possible combinations: Kadima-Likud-YB, Kadima-Likud-Labor, even Kadima-Likud-Shas. But any such coalition requires Kadima, which as the largest party in the coalition could easily demand the Prime Ministership. Since Likud can't form a government otherwise, they will be forced to accept.

Initially, I thought Kadima-Likud-Labor was more likely; now I'm leaning towards Kadima-Likud-YB. Netanyahu gets to be Foreign Minister, which is really what he wants anyway.

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Interesting. I suppose Livni at Defense with Netanyahu as PM is not all that surprising. But who will be the third member of the coalition if Lieberman is being unreasonable? Labor? Or the religious parties?

(Really, I don't mind the religious parties so much. Aside from Meretz, they tend to be the least militant of the Jewish-community parties.)

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Well, the survival of Meretz is ensured for the next election.

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They let Lieberman be Foreign Minister?!?!

It could have been worse; he could have been named Defense Minister.

Anyway, this coalition will not survive more than a year. Hopefully it won't do too much damage during that time