Israel 2009

[danny]

the elections will be on the 10th of February and it will be the First elections I can vote in.
Anyway i'm leaning likud rught now (but might change).

[danny]

I can't prove it, but I don't think Gil really underpolled. I think it was more a case of people that didn't like any party that made up their minds in the last minute.

The latest poll i saw on TV showed Likud and Kadima tied at 31 with Yisrael beitenu at 11 and labor and shas with 10 (lol at labor).

[danny]

Good news for me, a new poll shows Likud gaining:

Likud: 32
Kadima: 26
Shas: 11
"arab parties": 11
Yisrael beitenu(Lieberman): 9
Labor: 8 (lol Baraks pathetic)
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Jewish home (replaces Nrp-Nru): 6
Greens: 3

link: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3625850,00.html

[danny]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

[danny]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.

Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

[danny]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.

Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

But they would all come from the same party, making coalitions easier.

I think your underestimating the ability of Israeli politicians to fight amongst eachother. It's already common for parties to split and for MKs to leave their party when they're supposed to be more homogenous.
Besides even if they work it out it would just give even more sway to the haredi.

[danny]

Up to now this is turning in to a bizarre election so far where most parties seem to be fighting amongst themselves rather than against each other.

 Labor is the funniest case where Barak forced through a vote in the party committee to have non-secret voting for "shiryunim" (deciding in advance a certain place for a certain person in the party before the primaries) to make sure his buddies get in. However, the plan backfired when it was eventually decided that an open ballot was against the party constitution so the whole thing was canceled. The whole affair was of course accompanied by fighting between the Barak camp and some anti-Barak party activists.

 Kadima- Following the announcement of Meni Mazuz (officially called the legal adviser to the government but is the Israeli version of attorney general) that he will press charges against Olmert on corruption charges, Livni, Kadimas chairwoman and the acting prime minister, called for Olmert, Her own parties representative, to step down. Of course, par the course with Livni, she did in a gutless hypocritical way since Olmert said no she seems to have no desire to actually resign from her roles in Olmert's government.

 Likud- Following the polls showing a Likud win suddenly a whole bunch of people, some of whom with very questionable ties to the party, decided to run in the primaries. These people have been welcomed with great fanfare and press conferences by bibi, something that's causing a murmur amongst Likud old timers. Also the primaries are heating up between the moderate wing of the party( Meridor, Hefetz, sort of bibi etc) and the more hawkish wing (Benny Begin (son of) Zeev Zhabotinsky (grandson of) Feiglin, and the Likud rebels).
 On a personal note, if the hawkish side wins I'll definitely vote Likud, if the moderate wing wins I'll have to reconsider.

 The Jewish home- A total mess, this party is a union between the NRP and the National Union parties. the main point of the union seemed to be to have a single primary amongst them to decide the placings in the list. To decide on how the primary will be conducted they set up a committee to set the rules. Except rather than do their job, they decided not to have any primaries and to simply decide on the placings itself, using the the excuse that primaries would be divisive (as if the decision to cancel the primaries wasn't...). This decision caused the members of the former parties to blame one another of being behind the decision because they were afraid to lose in the primaries.

 United Torah Judaism- The big fight is over the aftermath of the Jerusalem Municipal election where the haredi candidate, mk Porush, was hated by several hasidic sects, most prominent among them being the Gur, after Porush supposedly screwed them over in past. This resulted in the Gur voting for the secular candidate, and being partially "to blame" for Porush's loss. The whole ordeal caused a huge rift between the Porush camp and between Gur and allies, with both sides threatening not to vote for the party as long as the other side will be represented in the list.

[danny]

new poll:

Likud- 35
Kadima- 26
Shas- 10
"arab parties"- 10
Yisrael Beitenu- 9
Meretz- 8
Labor- 7
UTJ- 6
The Jewish Home- 6
Greens- 3

[danny]

New poll in Yisrael hayom by "new wave":

Likud 35
Kadima 26
Yisrael Beitenu10
Shas 10
Labor 8
Meretz 7
Jewish home 5
UTJ 5
Greens 2
GIL 2

they the combine it to right- 65, left- 55.The paper is right that Kadima is left nowadays but GIL is more problematic.

[danny]

Lol, just when you think Labor can't get more pathetic they do this:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3631836,00.html

idiots.

[danny]

What is causing the widening gap between Likud and Kadima?

Not sure, but probably in part due to the many people who joined Likud lately.

Also, is the infighting in Likud (Beilin) making any difference?

You mean Feiglin (Beilin is the former Meretz chairman) and I don't think care about it yet but if he gets in and Kadima attacks Likud over his presence it will.

[danny]

Today they had the Labor primaries for a second and it seems to have gone off okay, and the results should known by tomorrow . Of course, because of the events in hebron the elections have become an afterthought in the news and are barely mentioned.

[danny]

Today is the primaries in the Likud, and just like Labor it seems they can't get the computers to work properly which caused long lines at the polls so they have extended the voting until 1:00 at night. btw, all these problems have caused Kadima to announce that they're moving to paper ballots.

[danny]

The Likud list after preliminary results in the primary:

1. Bibi

2. Gidon Saar

3. Gilad Erdan

4. Rubi Rivlin

5. Benny Begin

6. Moshe Kachlon

7. Silvan Shalom

8. Boogey Yeelon

9. Yuval Shteinitz

10. Lea Ness

11. Yisrael Katz

12. Yuli Edelstein

13. Limor Livnat

14. Yossi Peled

15. Chaim Katz

16. Michael Eitan

17. Dan Meridor (this guy is Israels bellwether, he supported Bibi in 96, Barak in 99, Sharon in 01 and 03, Olmert in 06 and now he's going for Bibi).

18. Tzipi Chutubli

19. Gila Gamliel

20. Moshe Feiglin

21. Zeev Elkin ( currently an Mk from Kadima but will be on the LIkud list.

[danny]

Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...

yeah, this is a victory for the right wing within the Likud, and with a list like this I have finally made up my mind that I'm voting for Likud. hopefully Bibi gets replaced as party chairman next election so there is a proper right leadership in the Likud.

[danny]

New poll from "Haaretz-dialog":

Likud- 36
Kadima- 27
Labor- 12
Shas- 9
Israel Beitenu- 9
UTJ- 6
Meretz- 6
Hadash- 5
Jewish home-4
Raam-Taal- 4
Balad- 2

This is the first poll I've seen that put the arab parties separately.

[danny]

Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.

Why would there be any doubt that they make it?
They always make it.

[danny]

yes, but they were such a joke that their chances to get in are slim to none.

[danny]

Does the old people's party still exist?

They split up IIRC but neither will have seats.

To be more precise, they split up to 4 staying with the pensioners and 3 creating a new party called Justice for the elderly. Following the split there was a period of time when the two sides constantly attacking each other and with the pensioners saying that they won't be in the coalition with the other faction. After that they they rejoined, except for one mk Elhanan Glazer who created a new party called Right Way.

So the two parties that will be running will be GIL with 6 of the 7 mks and The Right Way with Glazer, with both expected to fail to reach the cutoff.

[danny]

Haven't Israeli-polls been pretty bad lately? They overestimates Kadima by several seats, and Livni by thirty points, if I remember right. 

In Israel you only vote for the party so the polls can't overestimate Livni.

The polls during the last elections showed Kadima with a precipitous decline with the last polls only slightly above the actual results.

[danny]

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

[danny]

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

[danny]

there's apparently a "new" party running, which will be this years Kahanist party. the party will have a chabad rabbi at its head and Bruch Marzel in second place, and will be called "The land of Israel is ours". While the Kahanist party hasn't gotten in lately, with the problems in The Jewish Home the new party should do better in this election.

[danny]

new poll from shvakim panorama I saw on http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32419/support_for_likud_soars_before_israeli_ballot:

Likud- 34

Kadima- 20

labor- 14

Shas- 12

Yisrael beitenu- 11

"arabs"- 9

UTJ- 7

Meretz- 5

Jewish Home- 4

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

[danny]

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?

When I say right, I mean it in the israeli sense, not in the international one. in the US I would be left leaning and I would probably have voted for Obama. My political matrix score would indicate that I'm not really right wing.