Israel 2009

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think your underestimating the ability of Israeli politicians to fight amongst eachother.

Which is not something that you should ever, ever do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Oh, I know (see also the endless hilarity that is constituency polling in countries with fptp). Which is why it's funny

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe it's a symphathy vote now that Lieberman is under police investigation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting that the area around Sderot was strongly Labour. (Maybe it wouldn't be surprising if I knew anything about the area at all other than hearing about rocket attacks in the news, but I don't).

Amir Peretz is from Sderot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls are notoriously poor in Israel though,

Ah yes. I remember Peres v Bibi in 1996 (one of the first elections anywhere I paid more than a tiny bit of attention to, IIRC).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would be stunned if there are no surprises.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout at noon was slightly above 2006 levels; which is apparently a surprise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time can we expect results?

Polls close at, IIRC, 10pm, Israeli time (so 8pm GMT).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the BBC's election liveblog thingy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Likud MK is quoted on the above livebloggy thingy as saying:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Haaretz reports that Bibi himself has been bitching along similar lines. Also; Arab turnout low.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Projections are that overall turnout may be around 69% or so; not a huge increase on last time, but a noticable one anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Channel 1's exit poll is: Kadima 30, Likud 28, Yisrael Beiteinu 14, Labour 13

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So how hilariously wrong will the exit polls be this time?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hilarious how it seems we have a very-close-race for first place and a very-close-race for third.

---

Yeah, Balad in particular look rather vulnerable. How do things look for parties just below that? Any chance of any of them making it? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Labour off the bottom of the charts?

How long have you got? Though if you read back through the thread, you'll note that it was looking even worse for them a couple of months back...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3% of votes counted. No point really listing the results as they won't be even slightly representative yet...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

Anywhere I can follow the results?

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Coalition related news: Bibi and Lieberman are reported to have started talking to each other already, while Barak has openly stated that Labour might go into opposition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

I don't think Meretz would ever agree to be in a government with YB or Likud. But they wouldn't be necessary for a majority anyway.

...and if they did, it'd be the end of them anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mmmm... some traditional post-election regret from Haaretz methinks...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

I don't think that seat numbers are irrelevant as far as building coalitions goes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in some larger cities:

Tel Aviv: Kadima 34%, Likud 19%, Labour 15%, Meretz 8%, Yisrael Beitenu 6%, Shas 6%

Jerusalem: Likud 24%, UTJ 19%, Shas 15%, Kadima 11%, NU 7%, Yisrael Beitenu 6%, Labour 6%

Haifa: Kadima 28%, Likud 20%, Yisrael Beitenu 16%, Labour 13%, Hadash 4%

Be’er Sheva: Likud 28%, Yisrael Beitenu 25%, Kadima 20%, Labour 7%

Ashkelon: Likud 31%, Yisrael Beitenu 27%, Kadima 16%, Shas 11%, Labour 6%