R2K, CA-04: Brown +6

[Meeker]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)

McClintock (R) 42 (41)
Brown (D) 48 (46)

Among early voters (13 percent of respondents)

McClintock (R) 38
Brown (D) 56

[Ronnie]

AHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

[Senator Sbane]

Yay!!! I really really don't like Mclintock for some reason.

[HardRCafé]

Why is this surprising?

[Ronnie]

Yay!!! I really really don't like Mclintock for some reason.

Because he is a conservative?

[Lunar]

Well because he's a bit of a sleezeball, career politician who's willing to do anything to get to a higher office.  Not too different from most, but McClintock wears it on his sleeve a bit more.  Trying to depict a 26-year veteran as anti-troops/anti-American is just absurd.

This is my district, go Brown! I've followed this race intensely and Brown seems like a genuine good guy.

[Lunar]

Why is this surprising?

A likable nobody [and a big-time veteran, Dems hella love their veterans to prove that we've got military credentials, something we're insecure about] in a very republican district taking down a conservative establishment figure in what will be the fourth or fifth most Republican-leaning [nationally] districts controlled by a Democratic representative.

[HardRCafé]

I am still not seeing how McClintock losing an election is surprising.  This is the result I expected.

[Lunar]

I am still not seeing how McClintock losing an election is surprising.  This is the result I expected.

Well most pundits ranked it somewhere between the 40th an the 60th seat most likely to change hands.  McClintock has run four state-wide campaigns and always did extremely well in the district.  And his signature issue, pretty much the only thing he cares about, taxes, is the signature issue for the district.  Tom McClintock is basically as perfect of a fit for the district as one could get.  And if Charlie Brown got elected, again, he'd be in the top five or so of the most conservative districts held by Democrats.

I did a lot of research into the district and trust me, if Brown wins, it'll be one of the key House upsets of the year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I am still not seeing how McClintock losing an election is surprising.  This is the result I expected.

Out of California's 53 Congressional districts, only 1 has flipped so far this decade. There are similar numbers for the state legislature.

[HardRCafé]

Brown came close last time, and McClintock does not even live here.

Good grief.

[Lunar]

Brown came close last time, and McClintock does not even live here.

Good grief.

Brown came close last time to a evidence-supported, corrupt politician.  This was during a Democratic landslide year and Brown couldn't beat a pseudo-indicted politician with the lastname "dolittle" (the attack ads write themselves).

McClintock is heavily favored.


That said, the Brown campaign has been SUPERB and McClintock has a 5 to 6 election history of running "almost" campaigns - but that has usually been statewide offices in liberal California -- he has generally overperformed his expected margins.

[cannonia]

I really don't want to see Brown win on the strength of his aw-shucks name and his alternatively vacuous and dishonest campaign.  I have to hope the Kos polls rest on faulty assumptions, and that McClintock is not underperforming so badly relative to how he's previously done in this district.  If not, that's politics.

[Senator Sbane]

Yay!!! I really really don't like Mclintock for some reason.

Because he is a conservative?

No I just don't like his personality overall. I mean he's not the kind of conservative I usually loathe. I think it might have been because he was running as the "arch-conservative" during the recall race. And the people I knew voting for him were really off the deep end and Ahhnold was too liberal for them.

[Sam Spade]

McClintock has run a bad, bad campaign in a year when you can't afford to do such.

Even given the R2K bias, he's probably down slightly with little time left.

[Senator Sbane]

Brown came close last time, and McClintock does not even live here.

Good grief.

Like Lunar said Mcclintock is a perfect fit for this district. It is very fiscally conservative and that is all Mcclintock talks about anyways. Plus he has performed well here in statewide races. Mcclintock is definitely a household name in California and there is no reason for him to lose the race in that kind of conservative seat.

[Vasall des Midas]

Wow. Thought this one would be close but not super-close. And not close at all in 2010.

Well I might be right on that much - just with the wrong winner.

[Sam Spade]

McClintock has run about one of the worst campaigns I've seen in quite a while.

[Lunar]

He has a history of running losing campaigns (another House race, two State controller races, a Lt. Governor's race, and a governor's one), which was one of my points that you dismissed

[Sam Spade]

He has a history of running losing campaigns (another House race, two State controller races, a Lt. Governor's race, and a governor's one), which was one of my points that you dismissed

In the statewide races, he always ran better than the generic Republican.  The House race was not in that favorable of a seat and he ran well.

Strange that you give him a race that he should be favored in and he runs worse than usual.  Kinda like a team that plays down to its competition.

[Lunar]

He has a history of running losing campaigns (another House race, two State controller races, a Lt. Governor's race, and a governor's one), which was one of my points that you dismissed

In the statewide races, he always ran better than the generic Republican.  The House race was not in that favorable of a seat and he ran well.

Strange that you give him a race that he should be favored in and he runs worse than usual.  Kinda like a team that plays down to its competition.

McClintock would be stomping the district if he was running against a California generic Democrat.

But he has been helpless from stopping Brown redefining the race as a battle of biographies.  I don't know how much of that you attribute to each candidate. 

[Former Moderate]

Flat out, I wouldn't vote for someone who moved to my district from halfway across the state for the sole reason of political opportunism.  I have a feeling there are a lot of voters in CA-04 who feel the same as I do.

[Verily]

Flat out, I wouldn't vote for someone who moved to my district from halfway across the state for the sole reason of political opportunism.  I have a feeling there are a lot of voters in CA-04 who feel the same as I do.

McClintock still lives in SoCal. There's no residency requirement (other than living in the same state) for House districts.

[Senator Sbane]

Flat out, I wouldn't vote for someone who moved to my district from halfway across the state for the sole reason of political opportunism.  I have a feeling there are a lot of voters in CA-04 who feel the same as I do.

I wonder if that has some effect. He is around Sacramento most of the time though. Might as well be the representative.

[HardRCafé]

McClintock still lives in SoCal. There's no residency requirement (other than living in the same state) for House districts.

None of the Democrats running in traditionally Republican districts in suburban Chicago lives there, either.  Legal, yet repugnant.