Your worst predictions this year

[Brittain33]

I've been thinking about some of the bad predictions made earlier this year (one person kept insisting that Obama had a steel ceiling of 278 EVs and could not win Missouri or Florida) and turned the light back on myself. We could have some fun with this. What bad predictions did you make this year?

The prediction can't have been solely overtaken by events. If you predicted Michigan would be competitive this summer, well, if the race were closer, maybe it would have been. If you said Michigan would be the key swing state to hand the election to McCain because the Kwame Kilpatrick ad would move hundreds of thousands of voters, that's another story. Your prediction must combine boldness with a strong belief in your own powers of analysis leading to a position of great wrongness.

(For that reason, I don't include my prediction that Sarah Palin wouldn't be picked, because 98% of us can agree she really shouldn't have been, and it's pretty much for the reasons people cited that week of the DNC.)

1. Joe Biden was "damaged goods" and would not be picked as Vice President.
2. Virginia was tailor-made for McCain to do better than the national mean because of its Navy and D.C. orientations.

[JSojourner]

My worst prediction will likely be that McCain would win, and while not in a landslide, but a moderate to substantial margin.  I expected a massive 527 dump by Republicans (not McCain himself) filling with references to black power, whitey, Louis Farrakhan and Obama bin Laden.

I was woefully wrong and couldn't be happier about it.

My other lousy prediction was that Huckabee would be the GOP nominee. But then, it's hard to keep track of my bad predictions as they go by.

[Smid]

My worst prediction will likely be that McCain would win, and while not in a landslide, but a moderate to substantial margin.  I expected a massive 527 dump by Republicans (not McCain himself) filling with references to black power, whitey, Louis Farrakhan and Obama bin Laden.

I was woefully wrong and couldn't be happier about it.

My other lousy prediction was that Huckabee would be the GOP nominee. But then, it's hard to keep track of my bad predictions as they go by.

Yeah - I thought Huckabee was going all the way. I also thought Obama would be easier to beat than Clinton (and if I was right about that... well... what would the map look like today???).

[DownWithTheLeft]

I thought that Fred Thompson would be the GOP nominee and that if he wasn't it would be Brownback.  I thought the Big 3 would completely fall off.

[Workers' Friend]

That Oregon would go GOP.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I thought Rudy would win Florida

[Associate Justice PiT]

     That McCain could be competitive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess that Massachusetts would be any closer this year than it was in 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My predictions for the general and Dem primary were fine. The only things I badly blew were New Hampshire (and who didn't?) and California and Texas where I probably let wishful thinking get ahold of me.

I bombed the GOP primary pretty badly though. I predicted Huckabee stood no chance of going anywhere and could never win Iowa (I foolishly shorted a ton on him winning Iowa when he was at a 20% chance on the mock InTrade, far before his peak even. Lost big time.) and never thought McCain would make a true comeback. I had Huckabee winning South Carolina and Romney Florida.

[Lunar]

I made one bold prediction that Clark would be the VP choice of Obama, taking various big clues that it might be the case and ignoring some reason.  I was the first person to announce that I was wrong, though   I like being bold.

I made one safe prediction that I would eat my hat if Palin was selected as the VP and argued endlessly that this would not be the case.  I ate my hat.

But I've also made some pretty accurate predictions too, like that McCain would soon start spending money in Florida the day before he did, and others

[Alcon]

Probably being way too insistent that Palin wouldn't be chosen.

South Dakota in the Democratic primary was pretty embarrassing, in a state where I like to think I know a reasonable amount.  I wasn't as enthusiastic about Obama's chances there as some others, but I had him as a pretty solid shot to win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alcon had Hillary winning Minnesota! That was the worst.

[Alcon]

Alcon had Hillary winning Minnesota! That was the worst.

I didn't realize it was a caucus, and I'm pretty sure I also forgot to update that.  I may be wrong on the second count.  Still, if it were a primary, I doubt I would have been as off as you were in South Dakota.

(jerk.)

[minionofmidas]

This year? I didn't think it possible for the CSU to suck this badly.

I read the Dem primary season's fundamentals right, didn't bother with predicting individual states much so no potential for error very low there. Hilary hung in much longer than I expected her to, but this is a misreading of her rather than of the race. The race was over when I thought it was over, ie after Wisconsin.
Read the Rep primary season's fundamentals right before the thing started (and never quite wrote off McCain as a result - I said that either McCain or Giuliani would likely bomb and the other would likely win. It's just that at one point McCain to bomb looked far more likely) but during the campaign I let wishful thinking get the better of me. And was too ignorant of Rep delegate-distribution rules.

[Boris]

Hillary taking 49 states on January 2nd, 2008. I bombed the GOP primary like BRTD until Florida. After that it was pretty easy. But I always forgot to update my primary prediction maps

I forget what I predicted on Super Tuesday. I think I might have been fairly close to correct - maybe CT and MO.

[Workers' Friend]

Hillary taking 49 states on January 2nd, 2008. I bombed the GOP primary like BRTD until Florida. After that it was pretty easy. But I always forgot to update my primary prediction maps

I forget what I predicted on Super Tuesday. I think I might have been fairly close to correct - maybe CT and MO.

Which one, Primary or General?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In hindsight, the GOP race was very easy to read. It's simple, there was only enough "room" for three major candidates at once, and acheiving that status relied on appeal to four different groups (with abbreviations) Win two of those groups and you've won:

Economic conservatives - EC
Social conservatives - SC
Foreign policy hawks - FPH
Moderates - M

Early on the race was this:

Giuliani - FPH
McCain - M
Romney - EC, SC

Then the social conservatives decided "oh wait, we ARE voting for a Mormon", and McCain's support was too weak. McCain collapse, Thompson rose and the alignment became this:

Giuliani - FPH, M
Romney - EC
Thompson - SC

Then the social conservatives realized Thompson was a joke after all. Huckabee filled the void.

Giualini - FPH, M
Romney - EC
Huckabee - SC

Then Giuliani collapsed. We ended up with this:

McCain - FPH, M
Romney - EC
Huckabee - SC

And that was the alignment when the voting began. Romney should've found a way to reach out to one of the two groups with Giuliani once he collapsed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When looking at things immediately after Super Tuesday I failed to remember quite how complacent and lazy the Clinton campaign had been before Iowa.

[© tweed]

I had Hillary sweeping the Dem primary

[Hash]

I didn't predict +21 for the Socialists in the Senatorial elections (though I wasn't the only one). I saw +10-14 as a reasonable guess. And I didn't want to believe in the UMP's total trashing in Ille-et-Vilaine. Even though I knew that they would be trashed.

[Brandon H]

Rudy McRomney would fail to win the Republican nomination.

[Sensei]

I haven't had any real facepalms this election season, but I was pretty sure Hillary would win the nod as would Giuliani.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I didn't predict +21 for the Socialists in the Senatorial elections (though I wasn't the only one). I saw +10-14 as a reasonable guess. And I didn't want to believe in the UMP's total trashing in Ille-et-Vilaine. Even though I knew that they would be trashed.

One of these posts just doesn't belong

[CARLHAYDEN]

Not realizing how many slack jawed yokels there were in the Iowa Republican caucus in January to support the Huckster.

[The Mikado]

Predicting Obama v. Huckabee.  I obviously got carried away by wishful thinking and my incomprehensible soft spot for Mike Huckabee.