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Author Topic: Rasmussen California: Blowout of epic proportions  (Read 7817 times)
Rowan
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« on: October 27, 2008, 09:04:40 am »
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CA
Obama 61%
McCain 34%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 09:15:47 am »
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Conducted yesterday ?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 09:17:08 am »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on October 27, 2008, 09:15:47 am
Conducted yesterday ?

Saturday.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 09:20:20 am »
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Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 27, 2008, 09:17:08 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 27, 2008, 09:15:47 am
Conducted yesterday ?

Saturday.

Then I would expect McCain to have a relatively good showing in today's VA, CO, OH, FL, NC and MO polls (I'll post my predictions later).
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Senator Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2008, 09:20:44 am »
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Uhhhhh so this was taken when Obama had a 8 point lead I am guessing? Obama breaking 60 is going to be tough.
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Aizen
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 12:09:48 pm »
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Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.
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Senator Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 12:10:59 pm »
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Quote from: Aizen on October 27, 2008, 12:09:48 pm
Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.

You will probably have to.
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I left.
Franzl
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2008, 12:14:16 pm »
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+27?

Looks like a pretty big outlier to me.
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I've lost interest in the forum and I've wasted far too much time here.

To those I consider forum friends, it's been nice and I hope to keep contact in some form.

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Aizen
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2008, 12:15:26 pm »
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Quote from: Franzl on October 27, 2008, 12:14:16 pm
+27?

Looks like a pretty big outlier to me.


the previous two california polls had obama up by 23 and 24 respectively.
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tokar
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 01:36:25 pm »
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Quote from: sbane on October 27, 2008, 12:10:59 pm
Quote from: Aizen on October 27, 2008, 12:09:48 pm
Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.

You will probably have to.

Crow meat actually is pretty good.
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2008, 02:04:29 pm »
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I think this is bad news since it skews the national poll numbers.
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this is real
classical liberal
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2008, 08:08:15 pm »
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Here's the link; someone add it to the database.
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memphis
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2008, 01:07:12 am »
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Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2008, 05:02:35 am »
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The Central Valley is full of 1) descendants from Oklahoma 2) possibly illegal Mexican migrants who don't vote. I'd be surprised if they went for Obama, let alone any Democrat, because they "cling to their guns and religion" just as much as the Bible Belt does.
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Senator Sbane
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2008, 05:05:19 am »
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Quote from: memphis on October 29, 2008, 01:07:12 am
Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?

Yes in certain areas near the bay area like Stockton,Manteca,Modesto. I doubt Fresno or Bakersfield will move that much towards Obama.
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Fmr. Emperor PiT
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2008, 05:07:19 am »
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Quote from: tokar on October 27, 2008, 01:36:25 pm
Quote from: sbane on October 27, 2008, 12:10:59 pm
Quote from: Aizen on October 27, 2008, 12:09:48 pm
Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.

You will probably have to.

Crow meat actually is pretty good.

     Hope you like it. Demographic breakdown makes it extremely difficult for anyone facing credible opposition to break 60% in California.
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r(x,y) != <-y,x>

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=103836.0
phk
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2008, 12:45:40 am »
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Quote from: sbane on October 29, 2008, 05:05:19 am
Quote from: memphis on October 29, 2008, 01:07:12 am
Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?

Yes in certain areas near the bay area like Stockton,Manteca,Modesto. I doubt Fresno or Bakersfield will move that much towards Obama.

Clinton would have a +8 boost throughout the Central Valley.
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Aizen
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2008, 02:09:08 pm »
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Quote from: Aizen on October 27, 2008, 12:09:48 pm
Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.


no crow for me
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Senator Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2008, 02:19:56 pm »
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Quote from: sbane on October 29, 2008, 05:05:19 am
Quote from: memphis on October 29, 2008, 01:07:12 am
Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?

Yes in certain areas near the bay area like Stockton,Manteca,Modesto. I doubt Fresno or Bakersfield will move that much towards Obama.

Almost prophetic...almost. I still can't believe Obama did so well in Fresno and Bakersfield.
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Prez Duke
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« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2008, 02:24:30 pm »
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The California results make no sense to me. Obama outperformed Boxer and Feinstein in the OC and other parts of SoCal.
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I call that getting swindled and pimped
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Alcon
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2008, 02:27:46 pm »
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Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on November 13, 2008, 02:24:30 pm
The California results make no sense to me. Obama outperformed Boxer and Feinstein in the OC and other parts of SoCal.

Obama ran above the Democrat ceiling in a lot of areas like Orange County nationwide.
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n/c
BushArizona
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2008, 02:33:45 pm »
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Perhaps technological advancements have improved polling. There were some outliners (like obama underperforming in Iowa and Arkansas), but polling was remarkably correct this year.

Yes California was a blowout for Obama.

Yes Missouri was realllllly close, and yes Jay Nixon really was up by double digits.

Yes, PA was solid for Obama.. yes indiana was close.. as was NC

and yes.. oklahoma was horrible for obama.
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Senator Sbane
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« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2008, 04:07:14 pm »
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Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on November 13, 2008, 02:24:30 pm
The California results make no sense to me. Obama outperformed Boxer and Feinstein in the OC and other parts of SoCal.

It really is stunning how Obama basically repeated Dianne Feinstein's performance in 2006 against a guy name dick mountjoy. If you account for the independent votes she won with the same margin as Obama. Obama slightly overperformed in socal while Feinstein overperformed in the valley. One thing is certain, both are extremely popular in California.
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