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Author Topic: Rasmussen California: Blowout of epic proportions  (Read 8206 times)
Rowan
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« on: October 27, 2008, 09:04:40 am »
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CA
Obama 61%
McCain 34%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 09:15:47 am »
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Conducted yesterday ?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 09:17:08 am »
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Conducted yesterday ?

Saturday.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 09:20:20 am »
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Then I would expect McCain to have a relatively good showing in today's VA, CO, OH, FL, NC and MO polls (I'll post my predictions later).
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2008, 09:20:44 am »
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Uhhhhh so this was taken when Obama had a 8 point lead I am guessing? Obama breaking 60 is going to be tough.
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Aizen
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 12:09:48 pm »
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Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 12:10:59 pm »
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Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.

You will probably have to.
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Franzl
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2008, 12:14:16 pm »
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+27?

Looks like a pretty big outlier to me.
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Aizen
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2008, 12:15:26 pm »
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+27?

Looks like a pretty big outlier to me.


the previous two california polls had obama up by 23 and 24 respectively.
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tokar
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 01:36:25 pm »
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Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.

You will probably have to.

Crow meat actually is pretty good.
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2008, 02:04:29 pm »
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I think this is bad news since it skews the national poll numbers.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2008, 08:08:15 pm »
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Here's the link; someone add it to the database.
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2008, 01:07:12 am »
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Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2008, 05:02:35 am »
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The Central Valley is full of 1) descendants from Oklahoma 2) possibly illegal Mexican migrants who don't vote. I'd be surprised if they went for Obama, let alone any Democrat, because they "cling to their guns and religion" just as much as the Bible Belt does.
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2008, 05:05:19 am »
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Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?

Yes in certain areas near the bay area like Stockton,Manteca,Modesto. I doubt Fresno or Bakersfield will move that much towards Obama.
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IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2008, 05:07:19 am »
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Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.

You will probably have to.

Crow meat actually is pretty good.

     Hope you like it. Demographic breakdown makes it extremely difficult for anyone facing credible opposition to break 60% in California.
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phk
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2008, 12:45:40 am »
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Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?

Yes in certain areas near the bay area like Stockton,Manteca,Modesto. I doubt Fresno or Bakersfield will move that much towards Obama.

Clinton would have a +8 boost throughout the Central Valley.
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Aizen
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2008, 02:09:08 pm »
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Obama breaks 60% here. If he doesn't, I will be forced to eat crow.


no crow for me
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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2008, 02:19:56 pm »
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Wow! Is the housing collapse in the Central Valley responsible for these numbers? Will Obama do well in the valley?

Yes in certain areas near the bay area like Stockton,Manteca,Modesto. I doubt Fresno or Bakersfield will move that much towards Obama.

Almost prophetic...almost. I still can't believe Obama did so well in Fresno and Bakersfield.
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Duke
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« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2008, 02:24:30 pm »
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The California results make no sense to me. Obama outperformed Boxer and Feinstein in the OC and other parts of SoCal.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2008, 02:27:46 pm »
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The California results make no sense to me. Obama outperformed Boxer and Feinstein in the OC and other parts of SoCal.

Obama ran above the Democrat ceiling in a lot of areas like Orange County nationwide.
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n/c
BushArizona
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2008, 02:33:45 pm »
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Perhaps technological advancements have improved polling. There were some outliners (like obama underperforming in Iowa and Arkansas), but polling was remarkably correct this year.

Yes California was a blowout for Obama.

Yes Missouri was realllllly close, and yes Jay Nixon really was up by double digits.

Yes, PA was solid for Obama.. yes indiana was close.. as was NC

and yes.. oklahoma was horrible for obama.
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Sbane
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« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2008, 04:07:14 pm »
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The California results make no sense to me. Obama outperformed Boxer and Feinstein in the OC and other parts of SoCal.

It really is stunning how Obama basically repeated Dianne Feinstein's performance in 2006 against a guy name dick mountjoy. If you account for the independent votes she won with the same margin as Obama. Obama slightly overperformed in socal while Feinstein overperformed in the valley. One thing is certain, both are extremely popular in California.
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