Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

[Hash]

I seem to remember QS finishing second (to the PQ) in at least one riding in 2007.  What were their best ridings percentage-wise and those where they came in the highest (2nd being higher than 3rd, etc.) place (perhaps the same, but not necessarily)?

QS got 26.03% in Gouin and 29.38% in Mercier. David ran in Gouin and Khadir in Mercier. And 14.16% in Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques.

they finished a close second in both those ridings. They are very working class francophone ridings.

Near Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Rosemont, two generally poor areas of Montreal.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks Kentoc'h and EarlAW.

Accoding to Wikipedia, QS only lost Mercier (to the PQ) by 3.97% (+/- 0.01%) in 2007 (they lost Gouin to the PQ by 11.22% (+/- 0.01%) and were a distant third in Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques).  Could they possibly break through this year?  Or will the seemingly assured collapse of the ADQ-vote (8.42% in Mercier and 11.65% in Gouin in 2007 according to Wikipedia) help shore up the PQ whom ex-ADQ voters would likely heavilly prefer over QS (although some might go to the Liberals expecially considering this election seems likely go very well for them province-wide)?

Could someone answer the same questions I asked earlier for the Greens in the last election?  According to the Wikipedia article on the 2007 election, they took second place in three ridings and third place in three others.  What are the chances of them winning a seat?

[Hash]

The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

[Hash]

The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

The two others, apart from NdG, are D'Arcy-McGee and Westmount-Saint Louis. Both wealthy English.

Third place in Outremont, Jacques-Cartier (West Island) and Robert-Baldwin (also West Island).

[Hash]

A look at Leger's recent huge polling spree I mentioned earlier.

Francophone: PQ 40, Lib 38, ADQ 14, QS 4, Greenies 4
Non-Francophone: Lib 78, PQ 11, ADQ 6, Greenies 4, QS 1

Regions (name coloured according to 2007 winner. Not going to attempt Montreal since I don't know where Leger broke down the city).

MTL-East: Lib 42, PQ 42, QS 9, ADQ 4, PVQ 3 (MoE 7)
MTL-West: Lib 70, PQ 16, PVQ 5, QS 5, ADQ 4 (MoE 7)
Laval: Lib 56, PQ 25, ADQ 13, PVQ 5, QS 5 (MoE 7)
Laurentides-Lanaudiere: PQ 42, Lib 27, ADQ 19, PVQ 6, QS 6 (MoE 6)
Monteregie: PQ 44, Lib 40, ADQ 12, PVQ 2, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Outaouais: Lib 53, PQ 27, ADQ 10, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Abitibi: PQ 50, Lib 35, ADQ 6, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 10)
Mauricie/Centre-du-Quebec: Lib 39, PQ 38, ADQ 14, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Estrie: Lib 54, PQ 30, PVQ 7, ADQ 5, QS 4 (MoE 7)
Capitale-Nationale: Lib 45, PQ 29, ADQ 20, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 5)
Chaudiere-Appalaches: Lib 51, ADQ 29, PQ 16, PVQ 3, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Saguenay/Cote Nord: Lib 46, PQ 40, ADQ 9, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 6)
Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspesie: Lib 45, PQ 36, ADQ 14, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 7)

Crude and rough representation of that:

[MaxQue]

A look at Leger's recent huge polling spree I mentioned earlier.

Francophone: PQ 40, Lib 38, ADQ 14, QS 4, Greenies 4
Non-Francophone: Lib 78, PQ 11, ADQ 6, Greenies 4, QS 1

Regions (name coloured according to 2007 winner. Not going to attempt Montreal since I don't know where Leger broke down the city).

MTL-East: Lib 42, PQ 42, QS 9, ADQ 4, PVQ 3 (MoE 7)
MTL-West: Lib 70, PQ 16, PVQ 5, QS 5, ADQ 4 (MoE 7)
Laval: Lib 56, PQ 25, ADQ 13, PVQ 5, QS 5 (MoE 7)
Laurentides-Lanaudiere: PQ 42, Lib 27, ADQ 19, PVQ 6, QS 6 (MoE 6)
Monteregie: PQ 44, Lib 40, ADQ 12, PVQ 2, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Outaouais: Lib 53, PQ 27, ADQ 10, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Abitibi: PQ 50, Lib 35, ADQ 6, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 10)
Mauricie/Centre-du-Quebec: Lib 39, PQ 38, ADQ 14, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Estrie: Lib 54, PQ 30, PVQ 7, ADQ 5, QS 4 (MoE 7)
Capitale-Nationale: Lib 45, PQ 29, ADQ 20, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 5)
Chaudiere-Appalaches: Lib 51, ADQ 29, PQ 16, PVQ 3, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Saguenay/Cote Nord: Lib 46, PQ 40, ADQ 9, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 6)
Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspesie: Lib 45, PQ 36, ADQ 14, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 7)

Crude and rough representation of that:

I love my region.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

Which is interesting, because the PVQ is pretty much a sovereigntist party. They just wont admit it.

[Hash]

The Liberals and PQ will both improve in those constituencies, but I think the QS will remain at its same levels.

The Greenies have no chance of winning anything. Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode). It will be interesting to compare the PVQ results to those of the federal Greens, who performed best in English-speaking Quebec in October. I'll check the two other ridings where the Greens finished second in 2007. I'm pretty sure they were distant seconds to Liberals in the West Island.

Which is interesting, because the PVQ is pretty much a sovereigntist party. They just wont admit it.

The 1989 Greenies were openly nats. They got their best result in Saguenay (15%).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode).

NdG (for the most part, anyway) isn't exactly wealthy. Especially not for an Anglo district.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's middle income, I'd say. My best friend who lives there, says it's Montreal's version of the Glebe (an Ottawa neighbourhood). Very trendy, lots of shops, etc. Probably a high student population. (He goes to Concordia)

[Hash]

Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode).

NdG (for the most part, anyway) isn't exactly wealthy. Especially not for an Anglo district.

You're right. I confused it with other Montreal neighborhoods. But definitely richer than in the past and middle income.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Their best result was 15% in NdG, a wealthy West Island Anglophone area (and Liberal stronghold forever, save for the Equality Party episode).

NdG (for the most part, anyway) isn't exactly wealthy. Especially not for an Anglo district.

You're right. I confused it with other Montreal neighborhoods. But definitely richer than in the past and middle income.

Mind you, the areas where QS did well are richer than they used to be. Not that that's exactly hard or anything...

[Хahar 🤔]

11% of Anglophones are pequistes?

[Hatman 🍁]

11% of Anglophones are pequistes?

Apparently. And I know one of them. Actually, he's probably voting ADQ, but he is a sovereigntist.

[Linus Van Pelt]

11% of Anglophones are pequistes?

The poll said "non-francophones", which isn't quite the same - the PQ has some support among groups like Latinos and Arabs that are more likely to assimilate to francophone after a generation or two.

[Hash]

11% of Anglophones are pequistes?

The poll said "non-francophones", which isn't quite the same - the PQ has some support among groups like Latinos and Arabs that are more likely to assimilate to francophone after a generation or two.

Especially immigrants from other Francophone nations. Still, non-francophone samples are small and have a high MoE. Best not to take a whole lot out of it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Haitians, west Africans, etc.

[Hash]

Segma riding polls (=fail)

Sherbrooke

Jean Charest (LIB): 50%
Laurent-Paul Maheux (PQ): 33%
Christian Bibeau (QS): 6%
Jacques Joly (ADQ): 5%
Steeve Dubois (VRT): 5%
Hubert Richard (ind.): 1%

Bonaventure (4.9% moe)

Nathalie Normandeau (LIB): 67%
Marcel Landry (PQ): 31%
Patricia Chartier (QS): 2%
Denise Porlier (ADQ): 1%

Gaspé (4.9% moe) Lib gain from PQ

Georges Mamelonet (LIB): 50%
Annie Chouinard (PQ): 45%
Marcelle Guay (ADQ): 4%
Others 1%

Matane (11.3% moe)

Pascal Bérubé (PQ): 61%
Éric Plourde (LIB): 31%
Denis Paquette (ADQ): 7%
Gilles Arteau (QS): 2%

[Хahar 🤔]

Same day as the fall of the government. Just noticed.

[Verily]

LOL ADQ. 1% in Bonaventure, behind QS, and behind QS in Sherbrooke, too.

[Hash]

LOL ADQ. 1% in Bonaventure, behind QS, and behind QS in Sherbrooke, too.

I'm predicting a 1998-like result for the ADQ.

Their results in some parts of Montreal will be hilarious.

[Dan the Roman]

Does anyone think that the Bloc joining a de facto governing coalition will have any effect on the Quebec election?

[Hash]

Does anyone think that the Bloc joining a de facto governing coalition will have any effect on the Quebec election?

Very little, if any.

[Hash]

PQ internal sez Lib 40.4, PQ 34.5, ADQ 16.7. Francophone vote would be PQ 40.4%, LIB 33.1%, ADQ 18.9%

[Hash]

New poll for the three Mauricie ridings mentioned previously.

Champlain (600 répondants)

    * Noëlla Champagne PQ: 48%
    * Pierre Michel Auger LIB: 30%
    * Luc Arvisais ADQ: 19%
    * Autres: 3%

Saint-Maurice (600 répondants)

    * Claude Pinard PQ: 40%
    * Céline Trépanier LIB: 35%
    * Robert Deschamps ADQ: 15%
    * Autres: 10%

Trois-Rivières (810 répondants)

    * Yves St-Pierre PQ: 37%
    * Danielle St-Amand LIB: 34%
    * Sébastien Proulx ADQ: 19%
    * Louis Lacroix VRT: 6%
    * Alex Noël QS: 4%