A week out - what's your prediction?
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Author Topic: A week out - what's your prediction?  (Read 7038 times)
Iosif
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« on: October 27, 2008, 05:40:31 PM »
« edited: October 27, 2008, 05:43:21 PM by Iosif »


364 - 174 Obama, and nationally by 6%.

58 - 42 Senate. NH, VA, NM, MN, AK, OR, NC and CO pickups for the Dems. Lieberman throws a hissy fit and the Republicans gain CT.

A Republican massacre in the house, hopefully including Bachmann.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 05:43:03 PM »


Bleh
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Wakie
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 05:44:39 PM »
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opebo
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 06:08:15 PM »
Alas I fear this:
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2008, 06:09:20 PM »
Opebo, do you not trust polls?
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 06:30:16 PM »
273-265
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 06:32:18 PM »
272-266 McCain/Palin
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Mr.Jones
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2008, 06:33:30 PM »

Only FL and OH may change hands, but I will say this is pretty acurate.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2008, 06:42:46 PM »

Georgia is totally going for Obama in a McCain victory scenario.  Pass the popcorn.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 06:44:10 PM »
There's basically three different rough predictions that can exist with regards to this election barring something really crazy happening (not just normally crazy).

I might go into more detail later.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2008, 06:45:22 PM »
Quote from: HardRCafé on October 27, 2008, 06:42:46 PM

Georgia is totally going for Obama in a McCain victory scenario.  Pass the popcorn.

Montana is almost equally as amusing.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2008, 06:48:44 PM »
My inclination is to predict something bold.  This isn't "the most likely" scenario but there are no medals out there for someone who predicts CO, NM, and IA will flip.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2008, 06:52:52 PM »
Well, at least you're having fun with it.



Obama 53%, 391 EV
McCain 45%, 147 EV

EDIT: Well, Lunar stole my map. Jerk. Tongue
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2008, 06:57:36 PM »

From your EV Map to God's Ear man.
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Lunar
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2008, 06:58:38 PM »

NE-2 will determine which of us has talent
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cp
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2008, 07:04:49 PM »


Obama: 401
McCain: 137

I'll admit this is still on the optimistic side of things, but I posted this map about 6 months ago and people seriously LOL'd at me. That this is just 'optimistic' shows how far the GOP has fallen.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2008, 07:06:37 PM »


I would be shocked if any of the red goes blue. I would be shocked if any of the blue goes red. Greys are not true tossups, of course. But they all have the potential to move in either direction (even this late in the day. Do not underestimate the ability of the electorate to mack a mockery of us all) and often depend upon things that, whisper it quietly, we don't understand and will never be able to properly understand.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2008, 07:07:30 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 07:09:21 PM by WalterMitty »



obama: 367
mccain: 171

obama wins popular vote by 7-8 points.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2008, 07:07:59 PM »
Quote from: Sibboleth on October 27, 2008, 07:06:37 PM


I would be shocked if any of the red goes blue. I would be shocked if any of the blue goes red. Greys are not true tossups, of course. But they all have the potential to move in either direction (even this late in the day. Do not underestimate the ability of the electorate to mack a mockery of us all) and often depend upon things that, whisper it quietly, we don't understand and will never be able to properly understand.
Iowa, really? McCain's literally never led in a single poll against Obama in that state.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2008, 07:10:37 PM »
Quote from: Sibboleth on October 27, 2008, 07:06:37 PM


I would be shocked if any of the red goes blue. I would be shocked if any of the blue goes red. Greys are not true tossups, of course. But they all have the potential to move in either direction (even this late in the day. Do not underestimate the ability of the electorate to mack a mockery of us all) and often depend upon things that, whisper it quietly, we don't understand and will never be able to properly understand.

So, in other words, the PA gambit is useless...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2008, 07:10:48 PM »
Quote from: Resident of Fake America on October 27, 2008, 07:07:59 PM
Iowa, really? McCain's literally never led in a single poll against Obama in that state.

I'd be surprised if McCain wins Iowa, just not shocked.
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Politico
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2008, 07:18:05 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 07:28:14 PM by Politico »
Obama 478 (56.0%)
McCain 60 (43.0%)



Here is what the map will look like at 10:59 PM EST (Obama is declared the winner of California, and therefore the president-elect, as soon as the polls close there at exactly 11:00 PM EST):

Obama 258
McCain 27
Too Close to Call/Polls Still Open 253



These states are too close to call until 12-24 hours after polls close:
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2008, 07:18:17 PM »
Quote from: John Zogby on October 27, 2008, 07:10:37 PM
So, in other words, the PA gambit is useless...

I reserve the right to change my mind but, yeah, probably. The structural advantage that the Democrats have in that state just seems too large for McCain to have any hope of overcoming in an election like this. The word "gambit" says it all, really. Especially as we aren't in the opening stages of the game anymore...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2008, 07:19:22 PM »


Obama 350
McCain 188
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2008, 07:21:24 PM »

you believe ne-02 would fall before nc?!?
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