at this point, virginia is...

[WalterMitty]

discuss

[Josh/Devilman88]

Lean Obama

[TomC]

Lean Obama

[MODU]

It's between a toss-up and leans Obama.

[The Ex-Factor]

I wanted to vote "likely Obama", but lean, cause it's definitely not safe.

[elcorazon]

safe obama

[Smid]

I don't think much has changed in the past two years politically for Virginia, therefore I think that where Virginia stands presently is the net result of 2004 plus demographic change less the Bradley Affect. I believe this makes it an ever so slight McCain lean, but very close.

[Lief 🗽]

Safe Obama.

[Brittain33]

This is why the category "likely"/"favored" exists.

[davajuan]

Reading Dems who think this is Lean Obama is revealing. This is a microcosm of what I have been discussing on other boards. This state is Obama +7, +9, +10, +12, +8, etc. in poll after poll, but something just tells the discerning mind that this race is within a couple of points.

I personally believe this is a lean Obama at this moment, but who knows next Tuesday?

All I know is Virginia ain't Obama +12, and so does everybody else.

[Silent Hunter]

I don't think much has changed in the past two years politically for Virginia, therefore I think that where Virginia stands presently is the net result of 2004 plus demographic change less the Bradley Affect. I believe this makes it an ever so slight McCain lean, but very close.

Obama lean.

It's 2004 result + demographic change + the economy + the change in Senator - The Bradley Effect.

[Democratic Hawk]

Lean Obama

[TheGlobalizer]

It's between a toss-up and leans Obama.

[cp]

Reading Dems who think this is Lean Obama is revealing. This is a microcosm of what I have been discussing on other boards. This state is Obama +7, +9, +10, +12, +8, etc. in poll after poll, but something just tells the discerning mind that this race is within a couple of points.

I personally believe this is a lean Obama at this moment, but who knows next Tuesday?

All I know is Virginia ain't Obama +12, and so does everybody else.

'Just something'? That sounds like a euphemism for 'wishful thinking'. While 12 points does seem like the high side of Obama's likely performance in the state, it's entirely plausible. McCain hasn't had a tie/lead here since the spring, the Democrats have been targeting the state for years and have successfully elected candidates on the statewide level for two elections in a row. McCain's deficient in cash and ground organization and, if we're to believe last week's strategy memo, not *really* counting on VA to stay in his column anyway (PA's going to flip and give him the day, remember?)

My prediction for the state is still undecided, but if the election was tomorrow I'd say Obama would carry it by 6 points. In other words, likely Obama. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'd hate to seem overconfident, but I'm inclined to say very close to being Safe Obama.  I DO NOT think that Virginia is going to go 7-8 points for Obama like the polls suggest.  However, I think some being are missing a big point and what might be the most definite thing about the state this year. 

Northern Virginia, where most of the state's growth has occurred, is going to be an absolute slaughterhouse for McCain. 

Not to mention the African American vote, which comprised 21% of the state's vote in 2004 (as well as giving Bush 12%), is going to give McCain 5-6% tops.

And another tidbit... 44% of Virginians cited Moral Issues or Terrorism as their #1 issue in 2004 and they broke 88% for Bush?  Does anyone here think THAT'S happening again?   

[Monty]

It's over.  McCain ignored Virginia while Obama has done a terrific job in VA.  Plus, the early voting around the nation shows that Obama is going to win across the nation in a landslide/near landslide.

[TheGlobalizer]

It's over.  McCain ignored Virginia while Obama has done a terrific job in VA.  Plus, the early voting around the nation shows that Obama is going to win across the nation in a landslide/near landslide.

Next.

[JSojourner]

It's between a toss-up and leans Obama.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Lean Obama

[perdedor]

If Virginia was going to swing back to McCain, it would have done so by now. Rather, the situation has only gotten worse for McCain. Obama may not win it by 8-12 points, but he will win the state. You can write that much down. McCain's a sunk ship there.

[Sensei]

Leans Obama. Ideally, there should be a "Likely" option, because I'd pick that one .

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

VIRGINIA PRESIDENT -
53% (D) Obama
45% (R) McCain
  1% Others


VIRGINIA SENATE -
62% (D) Warner
35% (R) Gilmore
  2% Others

[Ronnie]

I predict:

Obama 50, McCain 48

It will be tighter than expected, like the 2004 election.

[TheGlobalizer]

49.5 Obama
48.5 McCain

[Mr.Jones]

Safe Obama.