The Silent McCain effect?

[Silent Hunter]

I'd say it's there, although not that big. It gets important if this race tightens.

We have a perfect example of it in the UK- the Silent Major effect from 1992.

[MODU]

The polling and the movements are so screwy this year, I don't put much faith in anything at the moment.

[TheGlobalizer]

I'd say it's there, although not that big. It gets important if this race tightens.

We have a perfect example of it in the UK- the Silent Major effect from 1992.

My anecdotals:

I'm inclined to say that it's 2-4%.  There are a lot of people that I know who are completely unenthusiastic, but simply cannot abide an Obama presidency (on economic issues).

They're disappointed in Palin as VP, by McCain's soft-socialist proposals, his support of the bailout, etc.  They do not identify themselves as McCain supporters.  (Except one, who got a McCain sign just to piss off his neighbors.)  They do have an issue with the groupthink going on with some Obama supporters, and are generally right-leaning.

At the end of the day, it seems like they feel that McCain > Obama, and they will vote.

[davajuan]

I'd say it's there, although not that big. It gets important if this race tightens.

We have a perfect example of it in the UK- the Silent Major effect from 1992.

My anecdotals:

I'm inclined to say that it's 2-4%.  There are a lot of people that I know who are completely unenthusiastic, but simply cannot abide an Obama presidency (on economic issues).

They're disappointed in Palin as VP, by McCain's soft-socialist proposals, his support of the bailout, etc.  They do not identify themselves as McCain supporters.  (Except one, who got a McCain sign just to piss off his neighbors.)  They do have an issue with the groupthink going on with some Obama supporters, and are generally right-leaning.

At the end of the day, it seems like they feel that McCain > Obama, and they will vote.

Couldn't agree more. Very similar feel here in MI. I'd guess that it will produce a 1.5-3% swing nationwide to McCain on election day. And that well could be the difference. It's an effect you cannot pick up with polling, IMO.

I am not a McCain supporter. I agree with him 50% of the time at best. Neither are legions of my friends and acquaintances. But Obama will not get their votes.

[ChrisFromNJ]

My anecdotals:

I'm inclined to say that it's 2-4%.  There are a lot of people that I know who are completely unenthusiastic, but simply cannot abide an Obama presidency (on economic issues).

They're disappointed in Palin as VP, by McCain's soft-socialist proposals, his support of the bailout, etc.  They do not identify themselves as McCain supporters.  (Except one, who got a McCain sign just to piss off his neighbors.)  They do have an issue with the groupthink going on with some Obama supporters, and are generally right-leaning.

At the end of the day, it seems like they feel that McCain > Obama, and they will vote.

Sounds like you have been listening to a little bit too much conservative talk radio.

[J. J.]

I think it is part of the Bradley Effect in this one, but it is not major.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

There will probably be a slight movement towards McCain on Election Day, but probably only 1-1.5%.  It has entirely to do with McCain being the underdog, I do not believe in the Bradley Effect.  (it's racist garbage)

[Person Man]

I think it is part of the Bradley Effect in this one, but it is not major.

[Stranger in a strange land]

undecideds should break heavily for McCain, but even that won't be enough, and it could very easily be overwhelmed by Obama's ground game.

[Bacon King]

Silent McCain effect? As in, saying he'll get votes that just happens to not show up in polling? Isn't there a JJ rule against that?

[TheGlobalizer]

My anecdotals:

I'm inclined to say that it's 2-4%.  There are a lot of people that I know who are completely unenthusiastic, but simply cannot abide an Obama presidency (on economic issues).

They're disappointed in Palin as VP, by McCain's soft-socialist proposals, his support of the bailout, etc.  They do not identify themselves as McCain supporters.  (Except one, who got a McCain sign just to piss off his neighbors.)  They do have an issue with the groupthink going on with some Obama supporters, and are generally right-leaning.

At the end of the day, it seems like they feel that McCain > Obama, and they will vote.

Sounds like you have been listening to a little bit too much conservative talk radio.

I stopped listening to talk radio 6 years ago, when they became shrill hatemongers.

[Silent Hunter]

Silent McCain effect? As in, saying he'll get votes that just happens to not show up in polling? Isn't there a JJ rule against that?

As in people are saying they'll vote for Obama in the polls, but will actually vote McCain.

The JJ rule is that any politician who is relying on a mass of unpolled voters to win, won't. It semi-applies here.

[TheGlobalizer]

Silent McCain effect? As in, saying he'll get votes that just happens to not show up in polling? Isn't there a JJ rule against that?

As in people are saying they'll vote for Obama in the polls, but will actually vote McCain.

The JJ rule is that any politician who is relying on a mass of unpolled voters to win, won't. It semi-applies here.

Hmm, I'm not sure the people I'm thinking of are claiming to support Obama.  I just think the undecideds in most states will break very hard for McCain, because if Obama hasn't closed the deal yet, it's hard to see how he can, given that he's the "style over substance" candidate.

(By that, I mean that you have to impute his positions and successes more than McCain, who has a long and fairly appealing centrist record.  Not trying to say he's vacuous or anything like that.)

I do think some election booth buyer's remorse might crop up, too.  Obama is the hip pick, but at the end of the day, a soft voter for Obama today is a vulnerability for Obama on the 4th.

[panda_priest]

This is possible, but could be balanced out by the silent Obama effect.

[afleitch]

We have a perfect example of it in the UK- the Silent Major effect from 1992.

Bear in mind that was down to people voting in their own economic interest. And it showed up in Labour's internals/focus groups.

How that would play in the US I don't know.

[Хahar 🤔]

Couldn't agree more. Very similar feel here in MI. I'd guess that it will produce a 1.5-3% swing nationwide to McCain on election day. And that well could be the difference. It's an effect you cannot pick up with polling, IMO.

Please read J. J.'s rules.