MS: Rasmussen: Wicker 54, Musgrove 43

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: Mississippi Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-10-27

Summary: D: 43%, R: 54%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

Wicker 54%

Musgrove 43%

Other 1%

Not Sure 2%

[Former Moderate]

My gut says it'll be a tad closer than this.

Say, didn't Harry have some sort of bet riding on this race?

[Sam Spade]

My gut says it'll be a tad closer than this.

Say, didn't Harry have some sort of bet riding on this race?

What I might start watching for is to see in KY, GA or MS (and NC) if there is any pushback towards the argument "don't give the Dems all the power".

This poll shows what might be, some signs of that (plus the inventive black advertising on the part of Wicker).  Unfortunately, Insider Advantage is not a good way figuring out Georgia.

[Mr.Phips]

My gut says it'll be a tad closer than this.

Say, didn't Harry have some sort of bet riding on this race?

What I might start watching for is to see in KY, GA or MS (and NC) if there is any pushback towards the argument "don't give the Dems all the power".

This poll shows what might be, some signs of that (plus the inventive black advertising on the part of Wicker).  Unfortunately, Insider Advantage is not a good way figuring out Georgia.

That probably wont work in North Carolina, since Obama is leading there.  If Obama wins NC, so does Hagan. 

[Sam Spade]

My gut says it'll be a tad closer than this.

Say, didn't Harry have some sort of bet riding on this race?

What I might start watching for is to see in KY, GA or MS (and NC) if there is any pushback towards the argument "don't give the Dems all the power".

This poll shows what might be, some signs of that (plus the inventive black advertising on the part of Wicker).  Unfortunately, Insider Advantage is not a good way figuring out Georgia.

That probably wont work in North Carolina, since Obama is leading there.  If Obama wins NC, so does Hagan. 

You know, as well as I do, the composition of the "undecided" voters in NC.  They're already starting to move.

[Adlai Stevenson]

MISSISSIPPI PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


MISSISSIPPI SENATE -
52% (R) Wicker
47% (D) Musgrove

[Mr.Phips]

My gut says it'll be a tad closer than this.

Say, didn't Harry have some sort of bet riding on this race?

What I might start watching for is to see in KY, GA or MS (and NC) if there is any pushback towards the argument "don't give the Dems all the power".

This poll shows what might be, some signs of that (plus the inventive black advertising on the part of Wicker).  Unfortunately, Insider Advantage is not a good way figuring out Georgia.

That probably wont work in North Carolina, since Obama is leading there.  If Obama wins NC, so does Hagan. 

You know, as well as I do, the composition of the "undecided" voters in NC.  They're already starting to move.

Obama still leads in the state 49%-48% and Hagan is running ahead of him. 

[Sam Spade]

My gut says it'll be a tad closer than this.

Say, didn't Harry have some sort of bet riding on this race?

What I might start watching for is to see in KY, GA or MS (and NC) if there is any pushback towards the argument "don't give the Dems all the power".

This poll shows what might be, some signs of that (plus the inventive black advertising on the part of Wicker).  Unfortunately, Insider Advantage is not a good way figuring out Georgia.

That probably wont work in North Carolina, since Obama is leading there.  If Obama wins NC, so does Hagan. 

You know, as well as I do, the composition of the "undecided" voters in NC.  They're already starting to move.

Obama still leads in the state 49%-48% and Hagan is running ahead of him. 

But still under 50%...

[Harry]

Well, gee, I hope this is a 1/20.  I don't know what would have caused the balance of opinion to shift this much...

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Why do you do these things to yourself, Harry?

[Gravis Marketing]

Well, gee, I hope this is a 1/20.  I don't know what would have caused the balance of opinion to shift this much...

Another poll showed a very similar result. The result on Election Day could still be different, but there's a good case to accept this as the current state of polling, or at least close to it.

[Sam Spade]

Well, gee, I hope this is a 1/20.  I don't know what would have caused the balance of opinion to shift this much...

Another poll showed a very similar result. The result on Election Day could still be different, but there's a good case to accept this as the current state of polling, or at least close to it.

Well, but that's a uni...

The real question in my mind is whether Wicker is actually getting 10% of the black vote.  Because if so, Musgrove is dead (he's not going to pull above 25% of the white vote in any scenario).

[Sibboleth]

Well, gee, I hope this is a 1/20.  I don't know what would have caused the balance of opinion to shift this much...

Another poll showed a very similar result. The result on Election Day could still be different, but there's a good case to accept this as the current state of polling, or at least close to it.

Well, but that's a uni...

The real question in my mind is whether Wicker is actually getting 10% of the black vote.  Because if so, Musgrove is dead (he's not going to pull above 25% of the white vote in any scenario).

Not just dead, but already buried with a fancy headstone and everything.

[Harry]

Well, gee, I hope this is a 1/20.  I don't know what would have caused the balance of opinion to shift this much...

Another poll showed a very similar result. The result on Election Day could still be different, but there's a good case to accept this as the current state of polling, or at least close to it.

Wrong.  The last two polls before this one were Wicker +1 and Wicker +2.  Those are the only other two in the last month.  The ones over a month old are around Wicker +5, suggesting the race has tightened.

So, either the race tightened and then without provocation opened a huge gap, or this poll is wrong.  I can't say which one is true, but I imagine the latter is more likely.