What polling site do you read/follow for Nov4 predictions?
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  What polling site do you read/follow for Nov4 predictions?
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Question: What polling site do you read/follow for Nov4 predictions?
#1
Cook Political Report
 
#2
Rothenberg Political Report
 
#3
CQPolitics
 
#4
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
 
#5
FiveThirtyEight
 
#6
ElectionProjection
 
#7
Other
 
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Author Topic: What polling site do you read/follow for Nov4 predictions?  (Read 566 times)
tokar
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« on: October 28, 2008, 10:12:42 PM »

There are wayyyyyy too many to list, so I just listed the big guys that I am familiar with.  3BlueDudes keeps track of all these types of sites and, damn, there are sooo many: http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm

(on a side note, the "Lean" column at 3BlueDudes has a few different letters which are not made clear on the website.  L = left lean, R = right lean, AC = academic, M = media).

CQPolitics, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report and Rothenberg Political Report are the big four in unbiased poll analysis.
ElectionProjection is, as far as I'm aware, one of the biggest conservative leaning projection sites.  Did a pretty good job in 2006, senate wise...traffic increased big time because of it, and its why The Blogging Caesar can get away with having a paid membership based section.
FiveThirtyEight is, as far as I'm aware, one of the biggest liberal leaning projection sites, and everyone here, and MSNBC, treats Nate Silver's work as godlike.


I think these are the big six poll analysis websites (sites which take the polls and weight them accordingly, not just doing a brute average {e.g. RCP} or regression {e.g. Pollster}), which is why they are listed.  But hey, no one is stopping you from choosing "other".  As you can see from 3bluedudes there are at least 88 sites which are into the business of giving projections, either based off of polls, prejudices, or the news.

If you do choose "other", please say which sites you use;  I'd certainly like to know.  Feel free to find new sites you like from 3bluedudes and list them.  Thats how I found sites like PollTrack, Princeton Election Consortium, etc.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2008, 11:07:49 PM »

None.  I look at the numbers and come up with my own conclusions.

I have a special loathing for 538, tho.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2008, 11:10:04 PM »

I read mostly Cook and 538.  538 is a great website, except Nate Silver sometimes weights the crappy polls too high, which skews his model as a result.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2008, 11:10:43 PM »

Other: This site.
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