In which states will the polls be wrong?
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  In which states will the polls be wrong?
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Author Topic: In which states will the polls be wrong?  (Read 1942 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: October 28, 2008, 07:17:43 PM »

...and why?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2008, 07:18:24 PM »

I dont have an answer, but I'd really like to hear (err...read) yours al...
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tokar
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2008, 07:30:33 PM »

Arizona...its JM's home state.  Under double digit win, are you crazy???
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=4
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2008, 07:37:10 PM »

AZ, IN, MT, and ND.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2008, 07:37:18 PM »

Almost all of them.  They'll get a lot more accurate in the next week, though.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2008, 07:54:05 PM »

Possibly North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  Those states always seem to poll more Democratic than they vote in Presidential elections. 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2008, 08:07:13 PM »

Possibly North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  Those states always seem to poll more Democratic than they vote in Presidential elections. 

Strange, I always thought Ohio and PA polled pretty normally (with normal referring to 2000/2004 - yes I know Gore underpolled in 2000, but part of that was due to the last minute shift and him publicly withdrawing everyone).

Florida is always going to poll weird and usually too Democratic.

You missed Virginia.

Actually, this election is quite confusing in many ways.  Somehow I suspect a lot of polls may be off.  I think that's the answer Al wanted, right?  Wink
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2008, 08:09:56 PM »

Almost all of them.  They'll get a lot more accurate in the next week, though.
Most thoughts exactly on the first part

I'd say states that are most heavily wrong in Obama's favor: MT, ND, MN, WA, OR
States that are most heavily wrong in McCain's favor: CO, VA, NC, FL, PA
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2008, 08:10:03 PM »

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You aren't going to bill anyone for that are you Sam? Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2008, 08:12:20 PM »

Almost all of them.  They'll get a lot more accurate in the next week, though.
Most thoughts exactly on the first part

I'd say states that are most heavily wrong in Obama's favor: MT, ND, MN, WA, OR
States that are most heavily wrong in McCain's favor: CO, VA, NC, FL, PA

McCain is going to get slaughtered in PA eh?  He's already down by 8% or so, or something.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2008, 08:13:25 PM »

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You aren't going to bill anyone for that are you Sam? Tongue

Nope, just an observation...
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2008, 08:13:29 PM »

Almost all of them.  They'll get a lot more accurate in the next week, though.
Most thoughts exactly on the first part

I'd say states that are most heavily wrong in Obama's favor: MT, ND, MN, WA, OR
States that are most heavily wrong in McCain's favor: CO, VA, NC, FL, PA

McCain is going to get slaughtered in PA eh?  He's already down by 8% or so, or something.
No, I think he's going to win or come very close.  What I meant is that they are most heavily wrong and will go in their favor on election day, sorry for the confusion
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Mr.Jones
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2008, 08:15:41 PM »

Almost all of them.  They'll get a lot more accurate in the next week, though.
Most thoughts exactly on the first part

I'd say states that are most heavily wrong in Obama's favor: MT, ND, MN, WA, OR
States that are most heavily wrong in McCain's favor: CO, VA, NC, FL, PA

McCain is going to get slaughtered in PA eh?  He's already down by 8% or so, or something.

Well he is down by 8 % from 10 %, big deal. By the time he get within 2 or 3 %, election will be over Wink
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2008, 08:16:41 PM »

Almost all of them.  They'll get a lot more accurate in the next week, though.
Most thoughts exactly on the first part

I'd say states that are most heavily wrong in Obama's favor: MT, ND, MN, WA, OR
States that are most heavily wrong in McCain's favor: CO, VA, NC, FL, PA

McCain is going to get slaughtered in PA eh?  He's already down by 8% or so, or something.
No, I think he's going to win or come very close.  What I meant is that they are most heavily wrong and will go in their favor on election day, sorry for the confusion

Well maybe you should work your respective lines then.  Smiley 
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2008, 08:21:23 PM »

OH, MO, NV, IN, MT, ND and FL.. their result will be more pro-McCain then the polls are showing.

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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2008, 08:24:05 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2008, 08:25:46 PM by Torie »

The state polls are now so terrible for McCain, that I am not sure he will underperform in any state vis a vis those, at least of any of which I am aware. California has polls showing Obama up by 25% now. It will be more than 16%-18% I think, so that might be the most  bloated one. But maybe my compatriots are going what I am going through. I don't see McCain beating the polls in states which Obama is working hard. Rather he will underperform by a couple of percent.

I suspect maybe McCain will do a bit better than the poll average in Indiana that has been shown so far. I just can't get my mind around that big a swing.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2008, 08:41:22 PM »

Going by current RCP averages:

New Hampshire 11.4% for Obama is off by possibly 8-9% (should be more like +3%)
Michigan +17% Obama is off by 10% (should be more like +7%)
Wisconsin +10.6% Obama is off by 5% (should be more like +6%)

None of these will flip colors from what the polls are predicting.

Indiana (+1.4% Obama), Missouri (+0.4% Obama), and North Carolina (+1.5% Obama) will all go McCain.  Polls showing Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota as tossups are garbage.

Obama will do better than he is polling in Pennsylvania (+9.8%), but I can't see any other state where the poll numbers look low for Obama.  Or maybe he really will win by double digits in 20 states...

Ohio has been a popular target for a McCain upset, but I think +6.4% Obama is pretty close to actual, which will be +3-4% Obama.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2008, 08:54:48 PM »

I think that's the answer Al wanted, right?  Wink

Grin

Actually, I just want to hear what other people think (and why, obviously). Though I have some, er, "concerns" about a couple of places, here and there...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2008, 09:12:25 PM »

I think that's the answer Al wanted, right?  Wink

Grin

Actually, I just want to hear what other people think (and why, obviously). Though I have some, er, "concerns" about a couple of places, here and there...

Oh I suspect we're thinking of the same places.
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PrisonerOfHope
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2008, 09:26:11 PM »

Possibly North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  Those states always seem to poll more Democratic than they vote in Presidential elections. 

Those states always used to invalidate legitimate votes.  Kerry pledged to contest vote results but didn't.  Obama got it right by fighting for the voters to be counted before the election!

My pick, Indiana.  Twenty thousand plus at Obama rallies.  Mccain couldn't get that if he promised to eat Manning's shorts.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2008, 09:30:50 PM »

Possibly North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  Those states always seem to poll more Democratic than they vote in Presidential elections. 

Those states always used to invalidate legitimate votes.  Kerry pledged to contest vote results but didn't.  Obama got it right by fighting for the voters to be counted before the election!

My pick, Indiana.  Twenty thousand plus at Obama rallies.  Mccain couldn't get that if he promised to eat Manning's shorts.

So, Kerry would have won North Carolina but for invalidation of legitimate votes?
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LanceMcSteel
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2008, 09:33:14 PM »

Enthusiasm Gap+Historic African American Turnout+Historic Youth Turnout+Unprecedented Obama GOTV+McCain's pathetic GOTV-(possible bradley affect)=Epic Obama win
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2008, 11:03:59 PM »

Enthusiasm Gap+Historic African American Turnout+Historic Youth Turnout+Unprecedented Obama GOTV+McCain's pathetic GOTV-(possible bradley affect)=Epic Obama win

Unflinching God Figure Worship+Irrelevant Candidate Promotion in Politically Neutral Threads+Saying the Same Thing Over and Over=Epic hackness
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