In which states will the polls be wrong?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Going by current RCP averages:

New Hampshire 11.4% for Obama is off by possibly 8-9% (should be more like +3%)
Michigan +17% Obama is off by 10% (should be more like +7%)
Wisconsin +10.6% Obama is off by 5% (should be more like +6%)

None of these will flip colors from what the polls are predicting.

Indiana (+1.4% Obama), Missouri (+0.4% Obama), and North Carolina (+1.5% Obama) will all go McCain.  Polls showing Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota as tossups are garbage.

Obama will do better than he is polling in Pennsylvania (+9.8%), but I can't see any other state where the poll numbers look low for Obama.  Or maybe he really will win by double digits in 20 states...

Ohio has been a popular target for a McCain upset, but I think +6.4% Obama is pretty close to actual, which will be +3-4% Obama.