WA: Survey USA: Gregoire (D) Leads WA by 2% (user search)
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  WA: Survey USA: Gregoire (D) Leads WA by 2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: WA: Survey USA: Gregoire (D) Leads WA by 2%  (Read 3121 times)
Ogre Mage
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

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« on: October 29, 2008, 02:22:36 AM »

God damn, are there really that many Obama/Rossi voters?

Based on this poll and past ones, Gregoire has a problem with young (Obama) voters.  Among voters age 18-34, Obama overwhelms McCain 59%-39% while Rossi similarly bests Gregoire 58%-41%.  To some degree, both Rossi and Obama have a natural bridge to young people because they are both in their late 40s, while McCain is 72 and Gregoire is 61. I fear, however, that some of the young voters captured by Obama's message of change are not very selectively applying that mantra to our Governor's race.
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2008, 12:21:23 AM »

Further evidence of Gregoire's problem with young voters -- the student newspapers at the University of Washington (The Daily) and Washington State University (The Daily Evergreen) endorsed Rossi.  Perhaps Gregoire should have spent more time talking about how she has increased the number of slots at our public universities and funded more financial aid and improvements to college buildings.

http://dailyuw.com/2008/10/29/daily-endorses-dino-rossi/

http://www.dailyevergreen.com/story/26756

But I also see notable positive signs for Gregoire in the Survey USA poll.  She has pulled even with Rossi among men (49%-49%) while retaining her lead among women (52%-47%).  She dominates among seniors in Hillary-like fashion (57%-42%). 

There are two factors which I consider the most significant.  The first is that as CultureKing mentioned, Gregoire leads among those who already voted 53%-46% (though this is tempered by the fact that Rossi leads 50%-47% among those who have not yet voted).  The second is that Survey USA agrees with the most recent Rasmussen Poll showing Gregoire reaching 50% support.  When I saw the Rasmussen poll I speculated that in spite of all the millions of dollars of negative advertising from the RGA and BIAW, Gregoire might be developing some teflon.  I now think that teflon is real.

This race is still a tossup, of course.  But for Gregoire supporters, there is reason to put a pinky on the scale of optimism.
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