AP/GfK: Obama leads in 8 key battleground states

[Tender Branson]

Colorado:

Obama - 50
McCain - 41

Florida:

Obama - 45
McCain - 43

Nevada:

Obama - 52
McCain - 40

New Hampshire:

Obama - 55
McCain - 37

North Carolina:

Obama - 48
McCain - 46

Ohio:

Obama - 48
McCain - 41

Pennsylvania:

Obama - 52
McCain - 40

Virginia:

Obama - 49
McCain - 42

The AP-GfK Battleground State Poll was conducted from Oct. 22-26 in eight states. It involved interviews by landline telephone with likely voters in each state, ranging from 600 in Florida and New Hampshire to 628 in Nevada. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points in Colorado and Nevada, and 4 points in the other states.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_Topline_10_28_2008.pdf

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wasn't this the pollster who had an one-point lead for Obama nationally last week?

[Tender Branson]

Wasn't this the pollster who had an one-point lead for Obama nationally last week?

Correct !

To be fair, I need to mention this is a crap poll (that's showing good results for Obama) ...

[Alcon]

um, new hampshire is sure getting us some interesting results in the last 24 hours.

[Brittain33]

um, new hampshire is sure getting us some interesting results in the last 24 hours.

This election may be the death knell for the "Third Senator" theory about McCain and N.H.

[TheGlobalizer]

Take these numbers and -5 to -10.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Take these numbers and -5 to -10.

Haha you are funny. So how much does McCain pay you?

[TheGlobalizer]

Take these numbers and -5 to -10.

Haha you are funny. So how much does McCain pay you?

Hacktard.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Take these numbers and -5 to -10.

Haha you are funny. So how much does McCain pay you?

Hacktard.

I am not a hack. You on the other hand are. Even poll that comes out that is good for Obama you write off as wrong or they are paid by the Obama camp.

[TheGlobalizer]

Take these numbers and -5 to -10.

Haha you are funny. So how much does McCain pay you?

Hacktard.

I am not a hack. You on the other hand are. Even poll that comes out that is good for Obama you write off as wrong or they are paid by the Obama camp.

That's libel, my friend.  Be careful.

I have never once said a poll was paid for by the Obama campaign.  My issue is the LV model this year, which seems to presume the same BS that the media presumes every year -- that young voters will sweep the Democrat to victory.  They are expecting that swing to be substantial; I expect it to be more in line with 1-2%, above and beyond the anti-GOP and anti-Bush effects.

I see the race being 51-47 today, closing in the next week, with the key swing states being VA, NM, CO, NV, and MO.  I have NM and CO going Obama, MO and NV going McCain, and VA as a pure tossup.

If you think that's offbase, fine.  "We'll see."

If you want to believe Uni polls, polls with demonstrated Democratic leans, and new/foreign pollsters, by all means, believe away.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Take these numbers and -5 to -10.

Haha you are funny. So how much does McCain pay you?

Hacktard.

I am not a hack. You on the other hand are. Even poll that comes out that is good for Obama you write off as wrong or they are paid by the Obama camp.

That's libel, my friend.  Be careful.

I have never once said a poll was paid for by the Obama campaign.  My issue is the LV model this year, which seems to presume the same BS that the media presumes every year -- that young voters will sweep the Democrat to victory.  They are expecting that swing to be substantial; I expect it to be more in line with 1-2%, above and beyond the anti-GOP and anti-Bush effects.

I see the race being 51-47 today, closing in the next week, with the key swing states being VA, NM, CO, NV, and MO.  I have NM and CO going Obama, MO and NV going McCain, and VA as a pure tossup.

If you think that's offbase, fine.  "We'll see."

If you want to believe Uni polls, polls with demonstrated Democratic leans, and new/foreign pollsters, by all means, believe away.

I don't believe post at all, none of them. But I don't write off polls. I think OH, NV and FL will not go to Obama. But I do believe VA and NC will go to Obama.

[TheGlobalizer]

I don't believe post at all, none of them. But I don't write off polls. I think OH, NV and FL will not go to Obama. But I do believe VA and NC will go to Obama.

Then we differ on NC.  I do think VA is a pure tossup on Election Day, tho.

[Sam Spade]

If this company couldn't conduct a national poll properly, what makes us think that it can conduct a state poll properly?

[Josh/Devilman88]

I don't believe post at all, none of them. But I don't write off polls. I think OH, NV and FL will not go to Obama. But I do believe VA and NC will go to Obama.

Then we differ on NC.  I do think VA is a pure tossup on Election Day, tho.

NC could go both ways, but with the AA voters coming out like they have been and the young kids too, I don't think McCain can win. I could be wrong, but we will have to see. VA would have went to McCain if he went to NE VA, but he did. But the state that I really want to keep an eye on is NM.

[they don't love you like i love you]

If only this were a half decent poll...

[TheGlobalizer]

I don't believe post at all, none of them. But I don't write off polls. I think OH, NV and FL will not go to Obama. But I do believe VA and NC will go to Obama.

Then we differ on NC.  I do think VA is a pure tossup on Election Day, tho.

NC could go both ways, but with the AA voters coming out like they have been and the young kids too, I don't think McCain can win. I could be wrong, but we will have to see. VA would have went to McCain if he went to NE VA, but he did. But the state that I really want to keep an eye on is NM.

VA is a queer bird this year.  Demographic change + Navy candidate + NOVA/rest split + AA turnout + racism = WTF.  I suspect McCain does a little better than Bush downstate and a lot worse in NOVA.  I'm curious how he'll do in the "border" central VA towns (Fredericksburg and the like).

NM is interesting, too.  I thought for sure it would go McCain, just because of regional familiarity and a pro-McCain Hispanic/Native American vote, but it seems like a nearly lost cause at this point.

I'm most intrigued by CO.