probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012

[Mr. Morden]

OK, inspired by the top 10 choices for early 2012 GOP frontrunner in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81715.0

let me pose the following question: *If* Obama wins in 2008 (as looks increasingly likely), what is the probability that each of the following potential candidates will run for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination:

Crist
Giuliani
Huckabee
Jindal
Palin
Pawlenty
Pence
Romney
Sanford
Thune

Again, I'm asking about the probability that each of them will *run*.  Not the probability that they'll win the nomination or that they'll do well.  Just the probability that they'll run.  Again, assuming Obama wins this time around.

[JSojourner]

Crist --  I like him, so I would hope so.  But I have a feeling he doesn't want people discussing his sexuality.  Not saying he's gay, but it will be discussed and, sadly, that alone might doom him.  Wish it weren't so.

Giuliani --  Well, what's he going to do between now and then?  Speak?  Write?  I suppose if there is a McCain administration, he might be appointed to something.  Of course, none of this means he won't run.  Giuliani has a Gilmore-esque sense of his own importance so I'd say the chances of his running are better than average.

Huckabee --  Almost certain.  I look for his media profile to increase beyond what he's doing with Fox, too.  Listen for him on Focus on the Family and other conservative Christian radio shows.  I still don't quite understand why Dobson and the fundamentalists didn't take to Huck.  They probably won't make that mistake next time.

Jindal --  If Barack Obama can be taken seriously as a candidate, why not Piyush Jindal?  He's good looking, bright, effective and extremely conservative.  That should propel him to the fore.

Palin -- No.  Just, no.  Not unless she is a sitting Vice - President.

Pawlenty -- I don't know, honestly.  I'd be interested in hearing what Minnesotans have to say.  What is next for Pawlenty?  He might challenge Amy Klobuchar for Senate, no?

Pence --  Oh yes.  And his obstinate opposition to the bailout is going to be a cornerstone of his Presidential campaign.  Pence has a big following among religious rightists, too.  If they are still unsold on Huckabee, they'll look to Indiana.

Romney --  He can afford to, for sure.  The problem is, as with Rudy, what will he be doing for four years in between?  I mean, to keep his name out there?  He might go the news analyst route.  Maybe one of the financial networks?  One thing in Willard's favor -- he won't be running for Senate or Governor in Massachusetts again.  So he won't need to suddenly become moderate to win.  He can remain consistently conservative on social issues...and then, if called a flip-flopper in 2012, can say "that's really, really old news.  Everyone changes over time."  And he'll be right.

Sanford --  I trust AH Duke's take on the guy.  He's effective and conservative.  But he might be a bit too down home and folksy -- and by most accounts, he's happy as a clam being Governor.  He's not a ladder climber.

Thune --  Unless there is something about him I don't know, I expect him to run.  He's really a lightweight -- sort of a conservative John Edwards.  Good looks but not much else.  Have you heard him debate?  Yeesh.  Still, Thune one on one can be extremely engaging and charming.  He's the anti-Palin in interview settings.  If he does run, the religious right will be utterly ecstatic with choices including Thune, Pence and Huckabee.

Some other names to watch...

1.   Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina
2.   Governor John Huntsman of Utah
3.   Governor John Hoeven of North Dakota

A few blogs have touted Congressman Jeff Flake.  But seriously, last names matter.  I remember a mayoral campaign here with a guy named Belch running.  Some names just won't work -- fair or not.  President Flake? I hope he runs.

Steven Hayes of The Daily Standard has said Fred Thompson is seriously considering a 2012 run. Yeah, really.  LOL  I have a hard time imagining that but stranger things have happened.  I guess.

[Person Man]

I think Jindal will more likely than not, be somewhere on the 2012 ticket, especially if McCain gets beaten.

[Erc]

Crist is currently engaged and will be married by the end of the year, so that removes one of the last impediments to his run.  Around 2/3 chance.

Unless terrorism again becomes a huge issue (i.e. a major terrorist attack in the third year of Obama's presidency), I can't see Giuliani trying again.  <15% chance.

Huckabee is definitely setting up for a run.  >90% chance.

Jindal...around 50%.

Palin--If Obama wins, Palin's going to get the blame for the defeat.  <20%.

Pawlenty.  Depends on whether he runs for re-election in 2010 or not.  <30%.

Pence.  Keeps on getting talked about, but isn't going anywhere until Dick Lugar dies or Evan Bayh goes on to better things.  <10%.

Romney.  He may, but he'll still have been a 4-year governor out of office for 6 years.  <40%.

Sanford.  Nope.  <10%.

Thune...<50%?  I don't know.

[pragmatic liberal]

I think a lot will depend on what the political landscape looks like in 2012. If it looks like Republicans have a genuine chance at winning the election, then there will probably be a somewhat stronger field. If it looks like they're going to get blown out, however, then at least some of them probably won't run and the chances increase that the GOP nominee will be a dark-horse or sacrificial lamb.

Giuliani: doubtful. Like JSojournor said, maybe, given his ego. But he'll have been out of office for over 10 years and his epic failure in 2008 has taken a lot of shine off him.

Palin: Possibly, but it depends on how the ticket does in November -- if it ends up being close, then maybe. But if they lose in a substantial way, she'll get some of the blame. I'd say 25%.

Jindal: The strongest candidate in the field, though he has to win reelection first. I'd say Jindal will make an assessment based on Obama's popularity -- if Obama looks beatable, he'll run. If he doesn't, I think Jindal will sit the race out and wait till 2016. VERDICT: 50%

Romney: He may do it. He has the fame and the fortune for it, but I think his political clock is ticking. He'll be six years out of office after having been an only unpopular governor of a liberal state for 1 term. About 30%

Huckabee: I'd say the odds are <80%, unless he loves his new Fox News digs so much he opts out. I can't see him winning the presidency, but he could certainly win the nomination. And, hell, I could be wrong -- he's a very personable and charismatic guy, and his TV show will get him lots of exposure. The GOP establishment doesn't like him, but they may warm to him (as they historically do to the runner-up) -- or they may not matter. If the party is in bad shape and evangelicals dominate the primaries, he may get through anyway.

Crist: Unlikely. >20%. The rumors about his sexuality whether he marries or not ARE going to hurt him. But stranger things have happened. Certainly without that in his background he's certainly, at least on paper, a giant compared to the dwarfs that populate the rest of the field.

Thune: A decent bet. I'd say 50%, though like Jindal, he may wait until 2016 if it looks like 2012 will be a Democratic year.

Sanford: I don't see it. > 10% chance.

Pence: Definitely running. 90%. And unlike most House members running for president, he may actually have a serious shot at the nomination. He's sort of the de facto leader of the House Republicans these days, and both small-government conservatives and the Christian Right love him. His chances of getting the nomination decrease the more winnable 2012 looks for the Republicans. If their odds don't look good, however, he could well be the nominee.

Tim Pawlenty: 25%. I kind of feel his "moment" has passed. And he's not the most dynamic or charismatic guy -- he's the classic pol who'd need the VP position to become a big contender. He didn't get it and now he won't be VP. His odds in a presidential nominating contest don't seem to be good.

I also think Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi may run. I'd say there's about a 50% chance of it.

And I agree that Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah could well run. I actually think that the odds are very good I'll see a Mormon president in my lifetime. They form a very large base of the Republican Party in the fast-growing West, they're prominent in business and have representation in Congress and in politics well above their share of the population. Huntsman is a fairly effective and popular governor and he could do well. 30% chance.

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal: The strongest candidate in the field, though he has to win reelection first.

If Jindal runs for reelection in 2011, then I'd say there's no chance of him running for president in 2012.  The Louisiana governor's race is in November 2011, no?  Unless there's going to be some dramatic reform of the primary calendar, the 2012 primaries will begin in January 2012.  So Jindal is going to run for president while simultaneously running for reelection for governor?  I don't think so.  I think he runs for reelection, and then waits until 2016 or 2020 to run for president......same probably goes for Crist and Palin as well.

Huckabee and Romney on the other hand have nothing better to do, so why not run for president again?    Seriously, they've both already set up their own PACs, which suggests that they still have long term political ambitions.  What could they possibly be setting up besides presidential runs in 2012?  They're the two most likely 2012 GOP presidential candidates (IMHO), should Obama win this time.  After them, probably Pawlenty, and then maybe Pence.

With Pawlenty, yes, I suppose he could run for a third term (unless he's term limited?)....but why?  If he has national ambitions, why not just retire from the governorship in 2010, and then run for president?  With Pence, the only question is whether he thinks he can successfully launch a presidential run from the House of Reps.

[phk]

Jindal: The strongest candidate in the field, though he has to win reelection first.

If Jindal runs for reelection in 2011, then I'd say there's no chance of him running for president in 2012.  The Louisiana governor's race is in November 2011, no?  Unless there's going to be some dramatic reform of the primary calendar, the 2012 primaries will begin in January 2012.  So Jindal is going to run for president while simultaneously running for reelection for governor?  I don't think so.  I think he runs for reelection, and then waits until 2016 or 2020 to run for president......same probably goes for Crist and Palin as well.

Huckabee and Romney on the other hand have nothing better to do, so why not run for president again?    Seriously, they've both already set up their own PACs, which suggests that they still have long term political ambitions.  What could they possibly be setting up besides presidential runs in 2012?  They're the two most likely 2012 GOP presidential candidates (IMHO), should Obama win this time.  After them, probably Pawlenty, and then maybe Pence.

With Pawlenty, yes, I suppose he could run for a third term (unless he's term limited?)....but why?  If he has national ambitions, why not just retire from the governorship in 2010, and then run for president?  With Pence, the only question is whether he thinks he can successfully launch a presidential run from the House of Reps.

Jindal will only be 41 in 2012, he has some time to go.

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal will only be 41 in 2012, he has some time to go.

Yes, exactly.  That's why it doesn't make sense for him to retire from the governorship of LA after just one term, in order to run for president in 2012.....since, as I mentioned, I can't really see him running for reelection as governor and for president at the same time.  He'll run for at least one more term for governor, and won't run for president until 2016 or later.

[phk]

Jindal will only be 41 in 2012, he has some time to go.

Yes, exactly.  That's why it doesn't make sense for him to retire from the governorship of LA after just one term, in order to run for president in 2012.....since, as I mentioned, I can't really see him running for reelection as governor and for president at the same time.  He'll run for at least one more term for governor, and won't run for president until 2016 or later.

Age wise

2012 - 41
2016 - 45
2020 - 49
2024 - 53
2028 - 57

He should make a run at 2016 or 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Marc Ambinder is reporting that Newt Gingrich is interested in a 2012 presidential run, and is "already planting some seeds in Iowa and New Hampshire":

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/huck.php

[Bob Dole '96]

You guys just don't get it about Palin.  She's the only reason McCain's even in this race, at this point.  McCain would be down 15 nationally and on the way to about 130 electoral votes if not for Sarah.

[paul718]

You guys just don't get it about Palin.  She's the only reason McCain's even in this race, at this point.  McCain would be down 15 nationally and on the way to about 130 electoral votes if not for Sarah.

I disagree.  Had McCain chosen Romney, the polls would be tighter.  Since the credit crisis hit, Americans want a comprehensive plan on how things will get better.  They want numbers., and, whether you believe him or not, Obama is giving it to them.   Romney is a power-point guy and would have a strong message in "I know how to fix things.  I've made a fortune doing it."  Any character issues brought up during the primaries would be irrelevant, as evidenced by Obama's associations not resonating in the polls.

Palin would've been effective if oil prices were still astronomical.  She's a single-issue politician, IMO.

[© tweed]

Crist: 50%
Giuliani: 15%
Huckabee: 40%
Jindal: 60%
Palin: 95%
Pawlenty: 40%
Pence: 60%
Romney: 95%
Sanford: 35%
Thune: 20%

[Bob Dole '96]

You guys just don't get it about Palin.  She's the only reason McCain's even in this race, at this point.  McCain would be down 15 nationally and on the way to about 130 electoral votes if not for Sarah.

I disagree.  Had McCain chosen Romney, the polls would be tighter.  Since the credit crisis hit, Americans want a comprehensive plan on how things will get better.  They want numbers., and, whether you believe him or not, Obama is giving it to them.   Romney is a power-point guy and would have a strong message in "I know how to fix things.  I've made a fortune doing it."  Any character issues brought up during the primaries would be irrelevant, as evidenced by Obama's associations not resonating in the polls.

Palin would've been effective if oil prices were still astronomical.  She's a single-issue politician, IMO.

Disagree, respectuflly.  What people like me like about Palin is that she is not single issue.  It's about life, energy, the economy, the role of government, special needs children, etc...all issues near and dear to the heart of the conservative movement.

Now, don't get me wrong, I like Romney.  I actually am an editor at another site and pre-VP pick I had Romney 1, Palin 2, but that was only because I thought Palin was unlikely to be picked due to the fact she was so new on the scene.  But, I was thrilled when she was.  Romney would have failed to inspire conservatives.  Yes, Romney was liked by us, but he wouldnt have been the type of figure to motivate us, largely because we just dont really trust him yet.  I think he's not done politically by any means, but this wasn't his time.  I wish the guy would consider moving to Utah or Michigan and running for the US Senate.  We need his voice.

But, like I said, outside nipping at the margins in Michigan and Colorado, he would have fallen flat elsewhere, and perhaps even ceded NC to Obama, as there is an anti-mormon vote in the south without question (as sad as that is, and I'm an evangelical.)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Palin -- No.  Just, no.  Not unless she is a sitting Vice - President.

If McCain is elected, and then chooses not to seek reelection, Palin will be advised, politely, not to run.  McCain's stepping down might actually be contingent on Palin not running for the nomination.  This would all happen in private, of course.

If she is a sitting President in 2012, then of course she'll seek the nomination and get it.  Assuming there haven't been any "Uh-ohs" with Palin in the Oval Office .

[Josh/Devilman88]

It will be someone we are not thinking of.

[Daniel Z]

Crist: Assuming he wins reelection he would be a powerful candidate in the general if Obama is not too popular, but Republicans may not like him because he is too popular with Democrats. 25% chance of Running

Giuliani: He embarrassed him self enough this year. 5%

Huckabee: Could be the Edwards of 2012. 65%

Jindal: 10%

Palin: I think she will run, but won't win the nomination. 90%

Pawlenty: Could be the Thompson or Gilmore of 2012. 25%

Pence: 15%

Romney: It sure looks like he is preparing to be the next leader or the GOP. 65%

Sanford: 5%

Thune: 20%

[BlueSwan]

Palin - Will run for sure, but her image is in ruins right now, so I doubt that the GOP will be stupid enough to give her the nomination. The GOP proved this year that they'll nominate someone electable over "their own people". McCain was the only republican with a legitimate shot this year, so they went for him.

Huckabee - I'd bu surprised if he didn't run and I think he'd be in fairly good shape to secure the nomination. The GOP will have warmed to him and his media exposure and the fact that he has a very likable demeanor will do him good. Could very well be the nominee.

Guiliani - 9/11 will be 11 years in the past in 2012. His only shot was this year and he blew it in no uncertain terms.

Jindal - I'm not sold on this guy yet, but he's young, so he has the future ahead of him. As others have pointed out, unless Obama has low approval ratings in 2011, it would be stupid of Jindal to run for president at age 41 instead of seeking a second gubernatorial term.

Thune - This guy has some potential, but I agree with whoever compared him to John Edwards - he's got something lightweight about him. My feeling is that he'll give it a shot, but won't win the nomination.

Romney - Yeah, I definitely think he'll run. After all, what else should he do? His best play right now is to somehow plant the idea in the GOP that they really should have picked him this year, given that the election was all about the economy.

Crist - No way! Homo issue is too big.

Sanford - Doubt it, but I don't know all that much about him.

Pence - Doubt it, but I don't know all that much about him.

Gingrich - Gingrich is so 1994, so if he runs he won't get the nomination.

----

Anyway, I think the GOP really should avoid picking a social conservative and go with a fiscal conservative instead. I really doubt that the US is gonna get more socially conservative over the next 4 years - infact I'm sure the demographics suggests the opposite. However, IF Obama is too "ambitious" economically, then a hardcore fiscal conservative may have a strong political foundation for a presidential campaign.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Crist -- 20%
Giuliani -- 25%
Huckabee -- 65%
Jindal -- 70%
Palin -- 100%
Pawlenty -- 35%
Pence -- 55%
Romney -- 90%
Sanford -- 60%
Thune -- 50%

     A lot of these are just guesses though.

[phk]

Depends on the 2004 climate.