IN-Indy Star/Selzer & Co: Obama leading by less than 1%

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama   45.9%
McCain   45.3%

Link


10/29/08

Presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat among Hoosier voters, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

More than ever, that means Indiana's 11 electoral votes will go to whichever candidate does the better job of making sure his supporters cast ballots by Tuesday.

The poll, by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, showed Obama backed by 45.9 percent of those polled, and McCain by 45.3 percent. Given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is a toss-up.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Lots of undecideds.

[Ronnie]

Selzer Indiana polls have been generally pro Obama.  I remember him leading by 3 in another one.

[TheresNoMoney]

Lots of undecideds.

Most interesting/encouraging part of the article for Obama supporters:

Black voters: Obama is the strong favorite, winning 82 percent of their vote. And, Selzer said, Obama needs their votes to win because McCain leads among white voters.

"This race is really in the hands of your African-American community," Selzer said.

Why only 82%? Many black people don't trust pollsters enough to tell them who they plan to vote for. This is fairly prevalent nationwide, especially in the south and midwest. In my opinion, Obama will get 92%-95% of black voters in Indiana when it comes down to it.

[Verily]

Whoever entered this poll did so with the wrong pollster. The Star-Tribune is Minnesota; this is Selzer & Co.

[Aizen]

Whoever entered this poll did so with the wrong pollster. The Star-Tribune is Minnesota; this is Selzer & Co.

whoopsy daisy. fixed.

[Jacobtm]

A piece on Ann Selzer's methodology as it differs from most pollsters:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html

Basically she's counting on a bigger youth turnout than most pollsters do, and that only shows a slight Obama lead right now.

Of course, everyone, even Selzer, could be underestimating potential turnout for Obama...