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Author Topic: MA-SurveyUSA: Obama up 17  (Read 1319 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 29, 2008, 11:22:39 am »
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Obama - 56
McCain - 39

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Massachusetts adults 10/27/08 and 10/28/08. Of the adults, 743 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 658 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3d3e8e07-a4a1-4168-8f1e-4b8ecb26215a&c=24
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2008, 11:24:29 am »
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Racisim!

I still think Obama breaks 60%.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2008, 01:32:07 pm »
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Neither McCain nor Obama is in a good position here. Obama is not particularly liked, but the GOP is loathed, and that, along with the Palin pick, will prevent McCain from ever really capitalizing on it.
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2008, 01:33:58 pm »
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My respect for Massachusetts has declined considerably this election. I also expect that if the Bradley Effect occurs, it'll definitely occur in Massachusetts, and not any of the Southern or Midwestern states.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2008, 01:37:25 pm »
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My respect for Massachusetts has declined considerably this election. I also expect that if the Bradley Effect occurs, it'll definitely occur in Massachusetts, and not any of the Southern or Midwestern states.

I think McCain has a ceiling here. I know a number of people, my family included, who disliked, and still dislike Obama, but are reluctantly supporting him over the last month.

That said, there is much less reason to rally to him, and the Democrats, and Deval Patrick are not particularly popular right now. Despite only running 44 candidates in 200 seats, the Republicans are likely to make significant gains in the legislature. There is just no real incentive to rally around the Democrats here.

By the way you can see the same sort of static thing in John Kerry's race. He is stuck in the low to mid 50s, but his opponent can't break 30. I expect high third party results in both races(6-7%+ in Kerry's).
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2008, 01:55:28 pm »
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My respect for Massachusetts has declined considerably this election.

Why? Because Obama is doing as well as the state's own senator when he ran for office, and no better?
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2008, 01:56:51 pm »
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Totally off-topic, but I think I'm starting to see a bit of a rightward trend in the Northeast.  Not substantial on a national level, but NJ and RI, and to a lesser degree some other regional states, seem to be picking up R votes a little more than in the past.

Not a big shift -- they're still deep blue -- but interesting to see nonetheless.  Similar to the leftward shift in the mountain west and upper plains (MT, WY, ND, SD).

Caveat: VT, obviously, is not shifting to the right.
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Duke
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2008, 02:01:25 pm »
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Totally off-topic, but I think I'm starting to see a bit of a rightward trend in the Northeast.  Not substantial on a national level, but NJ and RI, and to a lesser degree some other regional states, seem to be picking up R votes a little more than in the past.

Not a big shift -- they're still deep blue -- but interesting to see nonetheless.  Similar to the leftward shift in the mountain west and upper plains (MT, WY, ND, SD).

Caveat: VT, obviously, is not shifting to the right.

Well, most of them have trended so far left that it's hard for them to move any further. Vermont, on the other hand, is getting a lot of the far leftists from New York. I expect it to continue left for a while.

My respect for Massachusetts has declined considerably this election.

Why? Because Obama is doing as well as the state's own senator when he ran for office, and no better?

Versus the national average, Massachusetts is moving hard right. Bush got 35% there in 2004 and had 51% nationally. McCain is polling between 37-39% and only 44-47% nationally. So he should be up here much more if he's ahead nationally by 4-5, not polling at 56%.
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2008, 02:06:49 pm »
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Totally off-topic, but I think I'm starting to see a bit of a rightward trend in the Northeast.  Not substantial on a national level, but NJ and RI, and to a lesser degree some other regional states, seem to be picking up R votes a little more than in the past.

Not a big shift -- they're still deep blue -- but interesting to see nonetheless.  Similar to the leftward shift in the mountain west and upper plains (MT, WY, ND, SD).

Caveat: VT, obviously, is not shifting to the right.

Well, most of them have trended so far left that it's hard for them to move any further. Vermont, on the other hand, is getting a lot of the far leftists from New York. I expect it to continue left for a while.

I'm curious as to the "why".  I wonder if a globalization-related realignment could be brewing, with a coastal vs. central/southern split.  Can you imagine TX being a battleground state?
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2008, 02:38:18 pm »
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Versus the national average, Massachusetts is moving hard right. Bush got 35% there in 2004 and had 51% nationally. McCain is polling between 37-39% and only 44-47% nationally. So he should be up here much more if he's ahead nationally by 4-5, not polling at 56%.

Let's see how the elections comes out. Again, I don't see how you can judge the state is moving "hard right" by comparing an election with the home-state senator to one with a different one where we don't even know the election results.

Policy-wise, I haven't exactly seen the right-wing shift. The proposition to abolish the income tax got about 45% in 2000. Let's see how it does this year.
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2008, 02:39:14 pm »
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I still think Obama breaks 60%.

I think so too. This is Obama's smallest lead in MA during October. Rasmussen had him at a 28 point lead on 13 October. I imagine the real number is somewhere in between - Obama winning by about 24 points and just barely cracking 60%. The "other" vote, which is high in MA anyway, might be about 4%.
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2008, 09:40:12 pm »
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Republican 17% (13%): McCain 84% (87%); Obama 15% (11%)

Democrat 38% (43%): McCain 13% (14%); Obama 83% (84%)

Independent 44% (44%): McCain 44% (41%); Obama 49% (49%)

Conservative 23% (19%): McCain 76% (76%); Obama 19% (22%)

Moderate 45% (50%): McCain 37% (34%); Obama 58% (59%)

Liberal 24% (24%): McCain 9% (6%); Obama 87% (90%)

(denotes SUSA, Oct. 13-14, 2008)
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2008, 12:00:09 am »
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Republican 17% (13%): McCain 84% (87%); Obama 15% (11%)

Democrat 38% (43%): McCain 13% (14%); Obama 83% (84%)

Independent 44% (44%): McCain 44% (41%); Obama 49% (49%)

Conservative 23% (19%): McCain 76% (76%); Obama 19% (22%)

Moderate 45% (50%): McCain 37% (34%); Obama 58% (59%)

Liberal 24% (24%): McCain 9% (6%); Obama 87% (90%)

(denotes SUSA, Oct. 13-14, 2008)

I've noticed how flawed SUSA's internals are when it comes to ideology, every poll overcounts Conservatives and undercounts Liberals.

The 2004 exit poll said MA was 34% Liberal and 21% Conservative. Seems odd that their polls are so horribly off every time.
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