The coming McCain Victory

[ArthurBranch]

I know, I know, this goes against the liberal blog thinking as well as everything you've seen in the mainstream media.  And certianly, Obama could win it but if he does, it will be by the slimmest of margins in the electoral college. 

Fact is, the O+10 polls have never been right.  Obama's people know they are wrong.  The race is a 3-4 point race, if you look at the reliable national tracking polls -- Gallup's Traditional, IBD, Battleground, and Rasmussen.  All, save Rass (who used a 7.2 Dem advantage) have reasonable partisan weights that have some semblance of historical accuracy.   And, Obama's support is incredibly soft, much softer than McCain's. 

For example, in Rasmussen, McCain's number has always been very close to his "certain to vote for him" number, while Obama's has been well over it.  Also, there are increasing signs that late breaking voters will go 2-1 (at least) for McCain, according to some pollsters internal analysis.

Now, make no mistake, Obama will likely do better in certain areas -- he won't lose as bad in the south due to the AA vote, and he'll probably do better than kerry in liberal states like calfornia, oregon, etc, where the liberal kook factor is very high.

That said, Obama has serious issues in Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc, states that Hillary won.  The state of Pennsylvania is being polled horribly -- drastic oversampling of Democrats.  The truth is that the race is a near tossup with Obama falling fast.  In fact, one reason Obama is headed to Florida is to head off a loss in Pennsylvania.  He could still hold on in PA, but it is slipping away fast.

If Obama wins -- it will be because he narrowly holds on to PA, NH, and ME-2, and picks up Colorado, Virginia, or Nevada.  From what I am hearing, the Obama folks increasingly feel like Ohio is slipping away, with Florida not far behind, though they think they have a chance in Florida.  McCain is attempting to close the deal in Ohio and protect against a CO loss by going to Pennsylvania.  Iowa is also closing fast, and Obama is returning for a lastminute visit this weekend to try to save the state.

It is my feeling at this point that McCain may lose the PV narrowly -- something like Bush lost it in 2000, and will at least be at 274 but possibly as high as 312 if he can win NH, PA, and Maine's 2nd.  I also think McCain may end up winning the PV but it would be narrow.

There are also signs to confirm my prediction in early voting numbers.  In Florida, despite an overall Dem +25 advantage in early in person voters and an overall Dem +6 advantage in all early voters, exit polls indicate McCain already has a lead.  While Dems have a registration advantage there, in actual identification (what they consider themselves), republicans have an advantage and most thing McCain will continue to improve.  Even the badly weighted public polls have it MOE there.  Fact is McCain will win Florida.

In Nevada, where Dems have a HUGE early voting advantage in Las Vegas and Reno, an exit poll only had obama up 50-48, a MOE basic tie.  Basically, R's will catch up in this R-leaning state and this number indicates that McCain will likely win here, evidenced by the fact Obama hasn't been there much, while Palin has gone out twice to nail it down.

Even in Colorado, where Obama supporters were claiming huge early voting advantages, Republicans are even so far, pointing to a McCain win when the R voters turn out on election day.  I can say with certainty that Obama's folks are greatly worried about the impact of some of these huge -gap media polls -- they think many of their people are simply not voting because they think it's in the bag -- when it never has been.  Obama's pollster even said today that it's razor thin in the BG states and they're worried.

So, while there is no certainty either way, the fact is that signs are pointing to a McCain win, somewhere between 274 and 312 in electoral votes. 

[pepper11]

The Nevada exits are posted. Where did you get the FL exit poll results.

[opebo]

I appreciate your long post, Author Branch, but another and simpler way to state it is - white americans are not going to elect a black president.  Those of us who know americans have always known this.

[I left.]

Well, it is rooted in thought, so I'll give you credit there.  Unfortunately it relies on a long list of highly unlikely hopes and stretches.  You're basically outlining that 4.3% chance McCain wins (according to 538.com).

^^^^^^^^^^

[ucscgaldamez]

Where's the evidence? I am just reading so many assumptions without proof.

Nov. 4th will be a fun night.


The Nevada exit polls, where's the hard data with D, R, I breakdowns? Hard numbers.

Where are the Florida exit poll data with the breakdowns.

I am not into much hearsay.

[ucscgaldamez]

The poll, conducted by Las Vegas-based consultant Steve Nathan's firm Dialing Nationwide Automatically, or DNA, was conducted by automatically dialing everyone who had voted through Friday, based on statewide voter records, and weighting responses to reflect the composition of the electorate so far.

Nathan said the statewide numbers were based on 7,147 responses to the survey. He said McCain was getting much of his support from rural and Northern Nevada.

So what is the breakdown that the consultant used? The same as registered voters? I want to know D, R, and I percentages and their breakdown. Otherwise, this is useless.

[Prez Duke]

I did read that McCain was ahead in Florida's early voting as well, but that was just a small percentage, and leading in Absentee something like 51-30.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

So, while there is no certainty either way, the fact is that signs are pointing to a McCain win, somewhere between 274 and 312 in electoral votes. 

this is a pleasant fiction

[Lunar]

Here is why you're wrong.  You can believe whatever you want, but to imply that the only outcomes of this election are a heavily-favored McCain victory or a razor-thing Obama victory, is just silly.  Sorry if I sound a bit cranky about your dozens of blind assumptions and lack of number-supported evidence (you just keep arguing that the numbers agree with you without citing them), but I'm in that sort of mood  

I know, I know, this goes against the liberal blog thinking as well as everything you've seen in the mainstream media.  And certianly, Obama could win it but if he does, it will be by the slimmest of margins in the electoral college. 

Fact is, the O+10 polls have never been right.  Obama's people know they are wrong.  The race is a 3-4 point race, if you look at the reliable national tracking polls -- Gallup's Traditional, IBD, Battleground, and Rasmussen.  All, save Rass (who used a 7.2 Dem advantage) have reasonable partisan weights that have some semblance of historical accuracy.   And, Obama's support is incredibly soft, much softer than McCain's. 

All indications are that a 3-4 point win by Obama would not be "by the slimmest of margins" - pushing into Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and decent shots at North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.

I think it's pretty ridiculous to criticize Rassy's partisan weighting scheme since it's on the basis of what, 10,000 interviews conducted every month separate from his ordinary polling?

For example, in Rasmussen, McCain's number has always been very close to his "certain to vote for him" number, while Obama's has been well over it.  Also, there are increasing signs that late breaking voters will go 2-1 (at least) for McCain, according to some pollsters internal analysis.

What are those "increasing signs" if Obama is already gathering support of those less "certain to vote for him?"

Now, make no mistake, Obama will likely do better in certain areas -- he won't lose as bad in the south due to the AA vote, and he'll probably do better than kerry in liberal states like calfornia, oregon, etc, where the liberal kook factor is very high.

That said, Obama has serious issues in Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc, states that Hillary won.  The state of Pennsylvania is being polled horribly -- drastic oversampling of Democrats.  The truth is that the race is a near tossup with Obama falling fast.  In fact, one reason Obama is headed to Florida is to head off a loss in Pennsylvania.  He could still hold on in PA, but it is slipping away fast.

That's a pretty silly analysis.  It looks logical, but has little evidence.  PA has surged in Democratic registration while the GOP has actually LOST registration in total numbers since 2004.  On what basis are you concluding that it's being polled horribly, please cite some numbers.  The Florida argument is just silly, Obama's going there because it's a swing state and he goes to all of the swing states.

If Obama wins -- it will be because he narrowly holds on to PA, NH, and ME-2,

All polls show NH and ME-2 not in play. Your partisanship shows itself clearly here. McCain has committed more money and energy to NE-2 than ME-2 (where he canceled extending his ad buy).

and picks up Colorado, Virginia, or Nevada.

Or Ohio or Florida.

From what I am hearing, the Obama folks increasingly feel like Ohio is slipping away, with Florida not far behind, though they think they have a chance in Florida.

What have you been hearing?  It hasn't been on FreeRepublic has it?

McCain is attempting to close the deal in Ohio and protect against a CO loss by going to Pennsylvania.

This is true.  McCain has almost certainly lost Colorado if you look at the numbers (Democrats with a 34% early/absentee voting margin over Republicans with 55% of the 2004 total having already voted). 

  Iowa is also closing fast, and Obama is returning for a lastminute visit this weekend to try to save the state.

"Save" the state?  Your partisanship shows itself clearly here too.  One poll and an Obama visit, and suddenly he's drowning.  Joe Biden visited Washington, maybe that state is in play?  But Biden also visited Delaware for a rally, maybe that one is in play?  But he also visited West Virginia and the RNC *AND* McCain started running ads there, maybe McCain is trying to "save himself" there too?  McCain recently started running robocalls in Arizona, Obama sends out an urgent message to Arizonans to volunteer, Obama mulls holding a rally there, and MoveOn dropped money to run some ads there.  Oh, and Rasmussen showed Arizona +5 and some ASU polls showed it about +2 for McCain.  Should we just conclude that McCain is losing the state or should we use some frickin' common sense!  Frick man, frick

Everything you say about Obama states can easily be reversed for McCain states, if not moreso.

It is my feeling at this point that McCain may lose the PV narrowly -- something like Bush lost it in 2000, and will at least be at 274 but possibly as high as 312 if he can win NH, PA, and Maine's 2nd.  I also think McCain may end up winning the PV but it would be narrow.

McCain has a deadly gauntlet to run if he loses the PV narrowly.  He has to run the table with OH, FL, NV, CO, and VA, which all polls show him not being able to do.  Or, since I think he's mostly given up on CO (The RNC has canceled its ad buys and McCain has ceased buying more), he's making a long-shot bid for PA since they don't have early voting.

There are also signs to confirm my prediction in early voting numbers.  In Florida, despite an overall Dem +25 advantage in early in person voters and an overall Dem +6 advantage in all early voters, exit polls indicate McCain already has a lead. 

Exit polls? What?

While Dems have a registration advantage there, in actual identification (what they consider themselves), republicans have an advantage and most thing McCain will continue to improve.  Even the badly weighted public polls have it MOE there.  Fact is McCain will win Florida.

That's not a fact.  I have no idea what you're talking about here.

In Nevada, where Dems have a HUGE early voting advantage in Las Vegas and Reno, an exit poll only had obama up 50-48, a MOE basic tie.

That's the sketchiest poll ever.  It would involve what, 50%+ of registered Democrats voting McCain?  If you think McCain will win, that's fine, but stop fricking cherrypicking bad polls in some states but excluding bad polls from other parts of your analysis (at the top).

  Basically, R's will catch up in this R-leaning state and this number indicates that McCain will likely win here, evidenced by the fact Obama hasn't been there much, while Palin has gone out twice to nail it down.

Assume much?  You're not even trying here.

Even in Colorado, where Obama supporters were claiming huge early voting advantages, Republicans are even so far, pointing to a McCain win when the R voters turn out on election day. 

Even so far, how?  The early-voting gap is HUGE here, what are you talking about?

I can say with certainty that Obama's folks are greatly worried about the impact of some of these huge -gap media polls -- they think many of their people are simply not voting because they think it's in the bag -- when it never has been.

Yes, they are trying to encourage their supporters from complacency, but that's just sound logic when you're ahead.  You want to maximize your victory, why wouldn't they do this, even if they weren't genuinely worried?  You always want to pretend like it's a tied race to motivate your supporters and increase fundraising.

  Obama's pollster even said today that it's razor thin in the BG states and they're worried.

Yeah, he would say that even if they were 30% ahead.

So, while there is no certainty either way, the fact is that signs are pointing to a McCain win, somewhere between 274 and 312 in electoral votes. 

The signs are all pointing the opposite way and more objective and evidence-supported analysts than yourself have argued this

[CARLHAYDEN]

Mr. Branch,

First, welcome to the forum.

Second, I must disagree with you in a couple of areas. 

I maintain that Obama's support is relatively "hard," and that he will end up with between 49 and 50% of the popular vote.

On the other hand, much of McCain's possible vote is very soft, and depending upon a number of factors he will get somewhere between 41 and 48% of the popular vote.

Nader is likely to take from 1 to 3% of the vote.

Barr is likely to take between 1 to 6% of the vote.

Not more than 1% of the vote will go to all other options.

The electorate not firmly in any camp is essentially (primarily) the sucessors to the 1996 Perot vote.  They won't vote for Obama, but are irritated at McCain.

If you look at the surveys you cited you will see the firmness of the Obama vote I cited, and the softness of the McCain vote.

Now, if McCain in the next few days were to both publicly brag about pushing through the bailout (and promising many more if elected President) and reiterates his support for amnesty for illegal aliens (he calls it "a path to citizenship") he will draw 41%, if he deeps his trap shut about these matters and raises the very real fears of a redistributionalist Obama, he may get as high as 48%.

Bottom line is McCain is going to lose, by how much is his choice.

[Lunar]

Oh, as a side note:

The MSM generally has a bias, if anything, of making things seem more competitive than they are.  Thus the bias in making the Obama-Clinton race "neck and neck" even after Obama won 12 straight victories when it was clear to anyone crunching the numbers and a simple 2 minute psychology lesson about what superdelegates were likely to do that Obama had the race wrapped up.

Liberal blogs, I will grant you, are ridiculous.  So if Kos says it's wrapped up, I wouldn't buy it.... Well, I wouldn't buy the MSM either, but I doubt they have a bias to make things seem less competitive - less competitive = less viewership = less money.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Mr. Branch,

First, welcome to the forum.

Second, I must disagree with you in a couple of areas. 

I maintain that Obama's support is relatively "hard," and that he will end up with between 49 and 50% of the popular vote.

On the other hand, much of McCain's possible vote is very soft, and depending upon a number of factors he will get somewhere between 41 and 48% of the popular vote.

Nader is likely to take from 1 to 3% of the vote.

Barr is likely to take between 1 to 6% of the vote.

Not more than 1% of the vote will go to all other options.

The electorate not firmly in any camp is essentially (primarily) the sucessors to the 1996 Perot vote.  They won't vote for Obama, but are irritated at McCain.

If you look at the surveys you cited you will see the firmness of the Obama vote I cited, and the softness of the McCain vote.

Now, if McCain in the next few days were to both publicly brag about pushing through the bailout (and promising many more if elected President) and reiterates his support for amnesty for illegal aliens (he calls it "a path to citizenship") he will draw 41%, if he deeps his trap shut about these matters and raises the very real fears of a redistributionalist Obama, he may get as high as 48%.

Bottom line is McCain is going to lose, by how much is his choice.

Haha. Good one, Carl.

[Χahar]

J. J.'s laws, please.

[J. J.]

J. J.'s laws, please.

Rules, and so far, only the Second Rule might be violated.

[Χahar]

J. J.'s laws, please.

Rules, and so far, only the Second Rule might be violated.

Laws, rules, same thing.

But that was certainly a pretty dramatic "my candidate's not being polled right!"

[Ronnie]

This topic depresses me.