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Author Topic: "Show Me Missouri" finally gets it wrong  (Read 7406 times)
sg0508
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« on: November 05, 2008, 09:21:28 pm »
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For the first time since 1956, Missouri has voted for the losing candidate.  MSNBC called the state for John McCain today. 

It's very interesting that Obama could pull in states like IN and NC, but not Missouri, which was only a 7 pt Bush win in 2004. 

I guess the young vote, which was a huge factor didn't turn out as heavy there.  Either that, or the GOP showed up bigtime in SW MO.
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2008, 09:40:41 pm »
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Yes, and damn it... Missouri and Indiana really effed up my prediction...
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2008, 02:35:14 am »
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Quote from: nyquil_man on November 05, 2008, 09:40:41 pm
Yes, and damn it... Missouri and Indiana really effed up my prediction...

tell me about it...

Missouri is really disappointing...it just speaks volumes about the number of people that reside in the rural areas of the state.

I also heard about problems in Kansas City with the registration roll not being delivered to a poll station?...Can't say Ive heard of widespread problems in the state, though.

I think that if we had voter reform in this country I think Missouri would have had no problem going blue this time around.  Reform probably would have allowed more people in St. Louis and Kansas City to vote, and probably would have turned the state to Obama.
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2008, 02:39:55 am »
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Let me remind you people:

Obama was the absolute worst Democratic candidate for Missouri.

McCain was the absolute best Republican candidate for Missouri.
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Rob
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2008, 12:03:03 pm »
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Quote from: sg0508 on November 05, 2008, 09:21:28 pm
For the first time since 1956, Missouri has voted for the losing candidate.

2000?
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2008, 12:05:59 pm »
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Quote from: Rob on November 06, 2008, 12:03:03 pm
Quote from: sg0508 on November 05, 2008, 09:21:28 pm
For the first time since 1956, Missouri has voted for the losing candidate.

2000?
Missouri will never call D-winners it seems from now on....
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GMantis
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2008, 04:37:05 pm »
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Ohio has now sided with the winner 12 times in a row - the same as Missouri before this election - so it can replace Missouri.
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"Show Me Missouri"
Quite ironic name, considering that this time Missouri didn't show anything until long after the election was decided. Ohio fits that name much better.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2008, 05:14:48 pm »
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but in 2000, ohio went with Bush.

I think Missouri failed to go blue for the same reason that ARK and LA and OK swung way over to McCain this cycle.  Only region to move in that direction.
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2008, 05:25:17 pm »
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I kind of like when sacred cows go down, so this is fine with me. Hopefully Obama will win it in 2012 though.

To be fair though, we should remember that most news networks/organizations haven't even called the state yet. It's hella close.
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2008, 08:43:33 pm »
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Provisional ballots are the holdup:
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/15532
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2008, 12:36:04 am »
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I don't think Missouri will be key for future elections. I think Missouri and Ohio do not hold the importance they once had. I believe we are now seeing the new states that will likely decide future elections: CO, VA, NM and NV. Those will be the states to watch.
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2008, 01:17:16 am »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on November 06, 2008, 05:25:17 pm
I kind of like when sacred cows go down, so this is fine with me. Hopefully Obama will win it in 2012 though.

To be fair though, we should remember that most news networks/organizations haven't even called the state yet. It's hella close.

There aren't many provisional ballots left, and McCain is ahead by enough for it to be pretty safe for him.
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2008, 10:15:02 am »
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Anybody remember the 100,000 crowd in St. Louis?
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2008, 11:18:04 am »
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Quote from: nyquil_man on November 05, 2008, 09:40:41 pm
Yes, and damn it... Missouri and Indiana really effed up my prediction...
Yes. A lot of the Midwest and the coastal south really ed up mine.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2008, 11:28:25 am »
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Quote from: J. J. on November 07, 2008, 10:15:02 am
Anybody remember the 100,000 crowd in St. Louis?
they voted, but they couldn't overcome the areas of MO that are more like Arkansas.

didn't palin draw some large enthusiastic crowds in VA, NC, IN, PA, OH, FL?  where are they?

your rules are really dumb J.J.  they remind me of "magic" performed by Kreskin.  You can massage any result to justify the rules accuracy.
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2008, 12:03:55 pm »
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Quote from: elcorazon on November 07, 2008, 11:28:25 am
Quote from: J. J. on November 07, 2008, 10:15:02 am
Anybody remember the 100,000 crowd in St. Louis?
they voted, but they couldn't overcome the areas of MO that are more like Arkansas.

didn't palin draw some large enthusiastic crowds in VA, NC, IN, PA, OH, FL?  where are they?

your rules are really dumb J.J.  they remind me of "magic" performed by Kreskin.  You can massage any result to justify the rules accuracy.

No, just a good example of why we shouldn't look a measures like crowd size (I said the same thing about Palin's crowds).  I'm not a fan of the anecdotal evidence, and even though I was hearing the same things Keystone Phil has, I still said PA was going Obama.

I would have loved for the rule to have been wrong, but the rule worked.

As a refresher:

J. J.'s Third Rule of Elections: Supposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization.

It cuts across party lines. 
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defe07
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2008, 02:16:23 pm »
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Quote from: nyquil_man on November 05, 2008, 09:40:41 pm
Yes, and damn it... Missouri and Indiana really effed up my prediction...

Yeah, I predicted that MO would go to Obama and IN to McCain. At least I said that MO was going to shift back and forth all Election Night. Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2008, 02:38:54 pm »
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I don't know if this was widely published in MO newspapers on Nov. 3/4, but it could have made the slight difference in this tight state:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/Kansas_City_bishop_Obama_voters_could_cost_eternal_salvation.html
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mokbu
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« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2008, 07:27:54 pm »
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Ohio is still VITAL.  Gore showed that victory can be achieved without it, but it really is cutting it close.  OH will prob lose an elector in the next election, but 19 is still a vital block in a close election.
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dialectic2012
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2008, 03:17:37 am »
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So, I am pretty sure they've not even projected Missouri. Even now. I am kinda wondering why it's taking so long to count the votes. I mean... come on... Any theories?
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2008, 03:37:17 am »
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Quote from: palinode on November 17, 2008, 03:17:37 am
So, I am pretty sure they've not even projected Missouri. Even now. I am kinda wondering why it's taking so long to count the votes. I mean... come on... Any theories?

They're just slow there.
Actually, California is slower at counting the votes.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2008, 02:07:22 pm »
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Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 17, 2008, 03:37:17 am
Quote from: palinode on November 17, 2008, 03:17:37 am
So, I am pretty sure they've not even projected Missouri. Even now. I am kinda wondering why it's taking so long to count the votes. I mean... come on... Any theories?

They're just slow there.
Actually, California is slower at counting the votes.

Yeah, about 1.82 Mio. votes are left to count in CA and about 6.000 in MO.
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