Predict the Cabinet for both candidates?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Even though it looks increasingly likely that Barack Obama will be our 44th president-elect in about 5 days from right now, I want to give a fair shake to McCain considering that he is still a candidate.

Predict the make-up of both Cabinets.

For a list of the Cabinet offices to be filled and the current Members, follow this link: http://www.politics1.com/cabinet.htm

[Josh/Devilman88]

There is only one black person in Bush cabinet.

[Bacon King]

Of course about half of them will be people that none (or most) of us have never heard before.

Al Gore for the EPA, though.

[AndrewTX]

Kerry had floated this name around, but if Shays loses re-election, he would make an excellent candidate to be EPA Director.

[paul718]

I'll give it a shot, but only the glamour positions:

Obama:
State: Kerry
Defense: Gates, Powell, or McPeak
Homeland Security: Hagel or Nunn
Treasury: Volcker
AG: Eric Holder
Chief of Staff: Daschle
Fed Chairman: Rubin

McCain:
State: Lieberman
Defense: Gates, Ridge, or James L. Jones
Homeland Security: Thomas Kean
Treasury: Kemp, Whitman, or Douglas Holtz-Eakin
AG: Giuliani or Ted Olson
Chief of Staff: Pawlenty
Fed Chairman: Bernanke

[Mr. Morden]

Noam Scheiber of The New Republic suggests ("based on conversations with multiple sources in Obama's orbit") that Obama will pick either Larry Summers (back from retirement) or Tim Geithner (president of the New York fed) to be his Treasury Secretary:

link

[paul718]

report of Obama approaching Rahm Emmanuel to be Chief of Staff

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081031/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp_131

[jamestroll]

Wright for Sec of Health and Human Services.

Ayers for Sec of Education.

[pragmatic liberal]

report of Obama approaching Rahm Emmanuel to be Chief of Staff

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081031/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp_131

I doubt Rahm's going anywhere. He's on track to be Speaker. He'll lose that opportunity if he becomes Obama's chief of staff.

Daschle, Rouse or Valerie Jarrett will be Obama's CoS.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Obama:
State: Paris Hilton
Defense: Britney Spears
Homeland Security: Nicole Richie
Treasury: Lindsey Lohan
AG: Reece Witherspoon
Chief of Staff: Tyra Banks
Fed Chairman: Beyonce' Knowles

You know, cause he's a celebrity.

Also,
Press Secretary: Oprah
Surgeon General: Dr. Phil
White House Spokesperson: Jon Stewart

[Bacon King]

White House Spokesperson: Jon Stewart

Would possibly be the best thing ever.

[GMantis]

Press Secretary: Oprah

The only serious suggestion.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Press Secretary: Oprah

The only serious suggestion.

I would immediately start printing "Bobby Jindal/Mitch Daniels 2012" signs.

[ShadowRocket]

I can see Kerry and Hagel ending up at State Defense, respectively. I saw Deval Patrick's name sugested for AG once, which I could see. Maybe Tom Vilsack at Education or Agriculture. I could also see Obama putting Tim Roemer over at Homeland Security.

[Mr. Morden]

Current frontrunners for top cabinet jobs, as determined by Intrade (number is their percentage chance at Intrade):

Sec. of State
Holbrooke 30.0
Kerry 18.0
Richardson 16.0

Sec. of Defense
Gates 64.0
Hagel 15.0

Sec. of Treasury
Geithner 45.0
Summers 43.0
Volcker 12.0

Attorney General
Napolitano 30.0
Jamie Gorelick 6.0
Patrick Fitzgerald 5.0

National Security Advisor
James Steinberg 15.0
Greg Craig 11.0
Randy Scheunemann 11.0

[Frodo]

In light of recent events, it may be time to rename this thread....
--------------------------------------------------------


Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates

Secretary of State: Richard Lugar

Secretary of the Treasury: Timothy Geithner

National Security Adviser: Chuck Hagel

Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Max Cleland

Ambassador to the United Nations: John Kerry

[Mr. Morden]

Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates

Secretary of State: Richard Lugar

There's an excellent chance that Obama will pick a Republican for *either* State or Defense.....but I would be stunned if he actually went so far as to pick Republicans for both.

[Frodo]

Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates

Secretary of State: Richard Lugar

There's an excellent chance that Obama will pick a Republican for *either* State or Defense.....but I would be stunned if he actually went so far as to pick Republicans for both.

Given the reaction among Republicans to his CoS pick, he may want to do so.  I know I would if I were in his place. 

[Mr. Morden]

Among the more famous names being floated for jobs outside of the top 4 or 5 slots are:

Homeland Security: Roemer
HHS: Tom Daschle or Howard Dean
Labor: Gephardt
Interior: Richardson
Agriculture: Vilsack
HUD: Shirley Franklin
Veterans Affairs: Tammy Duckworth or Max Cleland
Sebelius: either HHS or Education or Commerce or Energy

I highly doubt we'll get that many former major office holders.  More likely, there will be far more obscure names in most of the slots.  But it would be funny to see Daschle and Gephardt reunited in Obama's cabinet.....or for that matter, to see both Dean and Gephardt.  Throw in Kerry at State, Clark at Defense, and Edwards at Justice and you'd have a 2004 Democratic primaries reunion.  (Oh, and you'd also have to include Kucinich as "Secretary of Peace". )

[Bacon King]

Sec. of Treasury
Geithner 45.0
Summers 43.0
Volcker 12.0

If I did the Intrade thing I'd bet against all three of these. There's at least SOME chance it will be someone else.