The Official Tender Branson Presidential Prediction Thread

[Tender Branson]

My Predictions for the Presidential Race:

(as of Tuesday - November 4, 2008)

Alabama: McCain 59.1, Obama 40.0, Others 0.9
Alaska: McCain 58.1, Obama 40.3, Others 1.6
Arizona: McCain 53.5, Obama 45.2, Others 1.3
Arkansas: McCain 54.2, Obama 45.0, Others 0.8
California: Obama 56.9, McCain 41.7, Others 1.4
Colorado: Obama 51.3, McCain 47.6, Others 1.1
Connecticut: Obama 60.2, McCain 37.9, Others 1.9
Delaware: Obama 61.3, McCain 37.6, Others 1.1
D.C. Obama 90.6, McCain 8.0, Others 1.4
Florida: Obama 50.1, McCain 49.1, Others 0.8
Georgia: McCain 50.4, Obama 48.6, Others 1.0
Hawaii: Obama 65.7, McCain 33.1, Others 1.2
Idaho: McCain 63.5, Obama 35.8, Others 0.7
Illinois: Obama 60.3, McCain 38.9, Others 0.8
Indiana: McCain 51.3, Obama 48.0, Others 0.7
Iowa: Obama 55.6, McCain 43.8, Others 0.6
Kansas: McCain 56.4, Obama 42.9, Others 0.7
Kentucky: McCain 57.7, Obama 41.4, Others 0.9
Louisiana: McCain 56.8, Obama 42.1, Others 1.1
Maine: Obama 56.3, McCain 41.9, Others 1.8
Maryland: Obama 60.2, McCain 38.5, Others 1.3
Massachusetts: Obama 60.4, McCain 38.5, Others 1.1
Michigan: Obama 54.8, McCain 44.0, Others 1.2
Minnesota: Obama 55.3, McCain 43.3, Others 1.4
Mississippi: McCain 56.6, Obama 42.5, Others 0.9
Missouri: Obama 49.8, McCain 49.4, Others 0.8
Montana: McCain 50.1, Obama 47.0, Others 2.9
Nebraska: McCain 60.9, Obama 38.3, Others 0.8
Nevada: Obama 51.0, McCain 48.1, Others 0.9
New Hampshire: Obama 54.8, McCain 44.1, Others 1.1
New Jersey: Obama 56.5, McCain 42.5, Others 1.0
New Mexico: Obama 53.8, McCain 45.1, Others 1.1
New York: Obama 61.6, McCain 36.5, Others 1.9
North Carolina: McCain 50.3, Obama 49.1, Others 0.6
North Dakota: McCain 53.5, Obama 45.1, Others 1.4
Ohio: Obama 50.2, McCain 49.1, Others 0.7
Oklahoma: McCain 66.1, Obama 33.4, Others 0.5
Oregon: Obama 56.4, McCain 42.1, Others 1.5
Pennsylvania: Obama 54.2, McCain 45.0, Others 0.8
Rhode Island: Obama 60.3, McCain 38.0, Others 1.7
South Carolina: McCain 54.0, Obama 45.3, Others 0.7
South Dakota: McCain 54.1, Obama 44.2, Others 1.7
Tennessee: McCain 57.0, Obama 42.1, Others 0.9
Texas: McCain 55.4, Obama 44.9, Others 0.7
Utah: McCain 65.7, Obama 32.4, Others 1.9
Vermont: Obama 61.3, McCain 37.2, Others 1.5
Virginia: Obama 50.4, McCain 48.9, Others 0.7
Washington: Obama 57.3, McCain 41.5, Others 1.2
West Virginia: McCain 54.6, Obama 44.7, Others 0.7
Wisconsin: Obama 55.4, McCain 43.8, Others 0.8
Wyoming: McCain 59.7, Obama 38.4, Others 1.9

...

Electoral Votes:

Obama - 349
McCain - 189

...

National Popular Vote:

Obama - 52.2% - 70.2 Mio. votes
McCain - 46.8% - 62.9 Mio. votes
Others - 1.0% - 1.3 Mio. votes

Composition:

Democrats (40%) - Obama 90%, McCain 9%, Others 1%
Republicans (35%) - McCain 92%, Obama 7%, Others 1%
Independents (25%) - Obama 54%, McCain 44%, Others 2%

Total Turnout: 134.4 Mio. votes

...

Map:

[© tweed]

I think you're a bit too unkind to Obama in states like IN, ND, GA, AZ, etc.  don't be gunshy.

but one thing I don't understand is DC.  why do you think Obama does a full 5 points worse than Kerry?

[Tender Branson]

I think you're a bit too unkind to Obama in states like IN, ND, GA, AZ, etc.  don't be gunshy.

but one thing I don't understand is DC.  why do you think Obama does a full 5 points worse than Kerry?

Thank You. I just noticed that I got DC a bit low and I corrected it.

All other numbers are subject to change in the coming days, so there's no need to worry about IN etc. yet.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, that's hardcore. Nice job.

[Tender Branson]

Some states slightly revised based on the latest polls.