Rasmussen MT, NC, IN, KY: Closeness is the norm(except for Kentucky)

[Rowan]

RAS MT
McCain 50%
Obama 46%

RAS IN
McCain 49%
Obama 46%

RAS NC
Obama 50%
McCain 48%

RAS KY
McCain 55%
Obama 43%

[TheGlobalizer]

RAS MT
McCain 50%
Obama 46%

RAS IN
McCain 49%
Obama 46%

RAS NC
Obama 50%
McCain 48%

RAS KY
McCain 55%
Obama 43%

*shrug*

Not much to argue with there.  I suspect MT is a bit stronger for McCain, but not much.

[Tender Branson]

The last KY poll (McCain+8) was probably an outlier.

NC is where it has always been: close.

I still think McCain will win IN, I just don't trust R2000 or Selzer.

I really like the MT numbers, allthough McCain will still win by 5-10.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Very good numbers for Obama.

[Franzl]

I'll take it.

[Person Man]

I like where we are at in North Carolina. Indiana seems a bit tougher, though. At least McCain will be below 60% in Kentucky and will have to fight for Montana.

[elcorazon]

these numbers correspond with the status quo basically.  none will determine the winner of the election.

[Lief 🗽]

Good numbers, and further proof that the race is not "tightening" significantly, and if it is, at least no in the places that matter. I think if Obama can keep Indiana within 2-3 and McCain under 50, his much, much superior ground-game in the state should make the difference.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

McCain is not winning any election in which North Carolina is close to tied.  If NC is that close, Virginia is probably in the bag. 

[pepper11]

I think if Obama can keep Indiana within 2-3 and McCain under 50, his much, much superior ground-game in the state should make the difference.

I have heard this repeatedly from Obama supporters and it totally misrepresents what a 'groundgame' is.  A groundgame does not magically manifest on election day. Instead it is the phone calls, door knocking, and talking within the community has been taken place over months.  Yes, the Obama campaign is doing more of that, and yes, it will continue to do more of that until election day. But results of the past three months of 'groundgame' are reflected in the polls already.  The only place were groundgame really matters the day of election is the caucus states.  The .001% of people that are driven to the polls by members of Obama's 'groundgame' are not going to swing this election.

[Eraserhead]

I'm tempted to flip NC back to Obama on my map... but something is holding me back.

He isn't going to win MT or IN with numbers like that but it will at least be amusing to hear them announced as being "too close to call" at first on election night.

Kentucky is, well, Kentucky.

[exopolitician]

Montana gogogo!

[MR maverick]

Whats with NC?

Can Obama really win that state?

Its a mild version of SC and Obama stands no chance here, I figured he wouldn't in NC.

[Franzl]

Whats with NC?

Can Obama really win that state?

Its a mild version of SC and Obama stands no chance here, I figured he wouldn't in NC.

excellent analysis...

[Josh/Devilman88]

Whats with NC?

Can Obama really win that state?

Its a mild version of SC and Obama stands no chance here, I figured he wouldn't in NC.

Dude SC and NC are nothing alike. Not even close. You fail, try again.

[MR maverick]

I hear the bible thumping in that state and they thump them pretty hard.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I would assume this is Rasmussen's last North Carolina poll. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen gets it right. They were right on in 2004.

[Ronnie]

I would assume this is Rasmussen's last North Carolina poll. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen gets it right. They were right on in 2004.

Is this some kind of practical joke?  When Rasmussen releases a poll that is favorable for Obama, you praise him, but you call him a right wing hack when there is a favorable result for McCain?

[Rowan]

I would assume this is Rasmussen's last North Carolina poll. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen gets it right. They were right on in 2004.

I think RAS will release a new set of battleground polls for like 20 states over the weekend or Monday like he did last year. At least I hope he does.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I think if Obama can keep Indiana within 2-3 and McCain under 50, his much, much superior ground-game in the state should make the difference.

I have heard this repeatedly from Obama supporters and it totally misrepresents what a 'groundgame' is.  A groundgame does not magically manifest on election day. Instead it is the phone calls, door knocking, and talking within the community has been taken place over months.  Yes, the Obama campaign is doing more of that, and yes, it will continue to do more of that until election day. But results of the past three months of 'groundgame' are reflected in the polls already.  The only place were groundgame really matters the day of election is the caucus states.  The .001% of people that are driven to the polls by members of Obama's 'groundgame' are not going to swing this election.

A good ground game also includes getting the vast majority of your targeted registered voters to the polls on election day. So if your ground game truly is exceptional, it often might not manifest itself in the polls until Election Day results start coming in.

[Franzl]

I would assume this is Rasmussen's last North Carolina poll. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen gets it right. They were right on in 2004.

Is this some kind of practical joke?  When Rasmussen releases a poll that is favorable for Obama, you praise him, but you call him a right wing hack when there is a favorable result for McCain?

That is ChrisfromNJ's way of thinking, correct.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I would assume this is Rasmussen's last North Carolina poll. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen gets it right. They were right on in 2004.

Is this some kind of practical joke?  When Rasmussen releases a poll that is favorable for Obama, you praise him, but you call him a right wing hack when there is a favorable result for McCain?

When did I ever praise him in my above post?

I never did.

I am predicting North Carolina to be Obama +3, so I am thinking that this Rasmussen poll is 1 or 2 points more favorable to the GOP, which I believe has been a trend all year.

I just said that as a point of reference; one would think this is his last poll.