GA: Rasmussen: Chambliss 48, Martin 43, Buckley (L) 7

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-10-30

Summary: D: 43%, R: 48%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

Chambliss 48

Martin 43

Buckley (L) 7

Undecided 2

[Nutmeg]

Buckley (L) 7

Doubt it.  Regardless, it's looking like a runoff in which most of those voting for the Libertarian migrate to Chambliss.  Unless Martin gets basically all the Libertarian voters, Chambliss wins.

[© tweed]

Buckley (L) 7

Doubt it.  Regardless, it's looking like a runoff in which most of those voting for the Libertarian migrate to Chambliss.  Unless Martin gets basically all the Libertarian voters, Chambliss wins.

runoff turnout will/would be much much less than general election turnout, so it is all about building a better operation in your parts of the state than the other guy.  look at what Ciro did in TX-23.  (I don't think turnout dropoff will be as big here as it was there, as this will get more national attention, but the point stands)

[Sam Spade]

Buckley (L) 7

Doubt it.  Regardless, it's looking like a runoff in which most of those voting for the Libertarian migrate to Chambliss.  Unless Martin gets basically all the Libertarian voters, Chambliss wins.

runoff turnout will/would be much much less than general election turnout, so it is all about building a better operation in your parts of the state than the other guy.  look at what Ciro did in TX-23.  (I don't think turnout dropoff will be as big here as it was there, as this will get more national attention, but the point stands)

The question in my mind is whether the blacks will show up in such high numbers.

[TheresNoMoney]

Internals? How much to the black vote is each candidate getting?

[Lief 🗽]

Buckley (L) 7

Doubt it.  Regardless, it's looking like a runoff in which most of those voting for the Libertarian migrate to Chambliss.  Unless Martin gets basically all the Libertarian voters, Chambliss wins.

runoff turnout will/would be much much less than general election turnout, so it is all about building a better operation in your parts of the state than the other guy.  look at what Ciro did in TX-23.  (I don't think turnout dropoff will be as big here as it was there, as this will get more national attention, but the point stands)

The question in my mind is whether the blacks will show up in such high numbers.

If Obama tells them to...

[Lunar]

If Franken can close better, I'm starting to think that an 8-seat pickup with a run-off in Georgia (exciting but the GOP will certainly win it) might end up being th end result.

That'd be amusing, and since the GOP would be 95% certain to win it, it'd be fun for everyone.

[Sam Spade]

Internals? How much to the black vote is each candidate getting?

Martin - 88D-5R-6L-1NS

I doubt 6% will vote for the Libertarian, but that's only like a 2% shift in the numbers, max.

[TheresNoMoney]

Martin - 88D-5R-6L-1NS

Do they break down the internals by race? That's what I'm most interested in.

[Sam Spade]

Martin - 88D-5R-6L-1NS

Do they break down the internals by race? That's what I'm most interested in.

That is the internals for blacks.

Chambliss leads 68-24 among whites.

[TheresNoMoney]

Martin needs close to 95% of blacks for him to win this race outright. 88% is not going to cut it.

[Sam Spade]

Martin needs close to 95% of blacks for him to win this race outright. 88% is not going to cut it.

95% of blacks may get him above Chambliss, but it won't get him above 50%.

[Torie]

5%-10% of blacks tend to be pretty loyal Republicans, even though not in the case of the presidential race this time. Heck in Florida, 10% of blacks are registered Republicans, or were in 2004 anyway.

[TheresNoMoney]

95% of blacks may get him above Chambliss, but it won't get him above 50%.

95% of blacks and 25% of whites definitely gets Martin above 50%.