Bush Lead >7 in MO, OH, AZ & NH, Leads by 1 in WV, According to Mason-Dixon

[Hegemon]

MO:  Bush 48%, Kerry 41%
AZ:   Bush 50%, Kerry 39%
NH:   Bush 49%, Kerry 40%
OH:   Bush 49% , Kerry 42%
WV:  Bush 45%, Kerry 44%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6038808/

[Gabu]

+9 in New Hampshire but only +1 in West Virginia?

Strange.

[Sam Spade]

It's unclear whether this Mason-Dixon poll is same one as the Mason-Dixon poll released earlier by the Cleveland Plain Dealer, because the Plain Dealer said 50-42 instead of 49-42, but I'm guessing that it is.

Nonetheless, it explains the reason why West Virginia is being so actively pursued by both campaigns.  Bush is ahead by more in NH than I thought he would be.

Otherwise, Missouri, Ohio, and Arizona are both 4-5 points above where Bush was in 2000, leading me to think there is a 4-5 point Bush lead.

I might also point out that in 2002, Mason-Dixon was the most accurate state polling firm, followed by Survey USA and then Research 2000.   No doubt the reason why MSNBC is using them this year instead of the erratic Zogby state polls.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Once again Mason-Dixon comes through with some very credible numbers.

Think they overstated Bush's margin in New Hampshire, and understated it in other states.

All the results look very credible.

[The Vorlon]

It's unclear whether this Mason-Dixon poll is same one as the Mason-Dixon poll released earlier by the Cleveland Plain Dealer, because the Plain Dealer said 50-42 instead of 49-42, but I'm guessing that it is.

Nonetheless, it explains the reason why West Virginia is being so actively pursued by both campaigns.  Bush is ahead by more in NH than I thought he would be.

Otherwise, Missouri, Ohio, and Arizona are both 4-5 points above where Bush was in 2000, leading me to think there is a 4-5 point Bush lead.

I might also point out that in 2002, Mason-Dixon was the most accurate state polling firm, followed by Survey USA and then Research 2000.   No doubt the reason why MSNBC is using them this year instead of the erratic Zogby state polls.

I don't know about these...

Mason-Dixon, Gallup, Research 2000....  I went to a few Dem Boards today and apparently these are all pretty shaky firms.

I personally am waiting for the ultra accurate internet polls from the worlds' most accurate polster..

The Zogby's are due Monday, till I see them I am withholding and judgement about a trend.

Frankly I haven't noticed any change in the state polls.


The Ohio 49-42 is actually a SEPERATE poll with a sample size of 625.

The 50-42 is a SEPERATE poll of 1500 sample size.

Unusual, but two entirely seperate polls... good thing they agree

[Sam Spade]

Yep, I just saw that Vorlon.  I guess it's good when one poll shows similar results to the other one.

[Sam Spade]

I was reading this Knight-Ridder article on the story, and they seem to mention that Mason-Dixon couldn't poll Florida because of the hurricanes (which makes sense), but also polled Nevada.

Somehow this didn't get put up on the MSNBC site.  I wonder why.

It says that Bush is up 5 in Nevada, 50-45, fwiw.

Link:

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9700117.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

[The Vorlon]

I was reading this Knight-Ridder article on the story, and they seem to mention that Mason-Dixon couldn't poll Florida because of the hurricanes (which makes sense), but also polled Nevada.

Somehow this didn't get put up on the MSNBC site.  I wonder why.

It says that Bush is up 5 in Nevada, 50-45, fwiw.

Link:

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9700117.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Fixing link

Thanks for finding the poll

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9700117.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

[zorkpolitics]

The internals of the Mason Dixon Polls are devastating for Kerry:  He is viewed favorably  by only 33-38% of the voters in the 5 swing states (Bush is viewed favorably by 46 to 52%).  Among Kerry supporters only 40% actually like Kerry, compared to 70% of Bush supporters liking Bush.

The large number of state polls this week all paint the same picture:
Bush has modest to solid leads in all the red swing states.   The Battle for the Battleground has been won by Bush

Bush can now focus on solidifying the upper midwest where he is leading in Blue states: IA, WI, PA and begin to expand his map further into MN.  A two day bus trip  through MD and NJ might even be worthwhile.

In the West NV and AZ seem safe, though CO is puzzlingly still close.  Again Bush can expand his map with OR and NM.

Even New England is becoming interesting, Bush has a solid lead in NH and is close in ME .

Kerry clearly understands he has lost this battle, he has reverted to a national campaign via free media:  He is showing up on late night TV and Imus, he s trying for a catchy attack phrase of the day, slinging mud over anything: forged memos, troop rumors,  even reaching for that old stand by Hallibuton.

Lacking vision and focus, he'll need a big debate bounce to get back in this race.

I am still watching for the final sign that Kerry is done:  When Bush switches to campaigning to expand the Senate Majority.

[AuH2O]

Anyone still think I was wrong to take 16:1 for Bush in Vermont?

[WalterMitty]

ive never been one to write off nh for bush.  i always thought that bush would be very competitive in the granite state.  it's a conservative place.

but i dont think bush is doing better in nh than wv.

[The Vorlon]

I am still watching for the final sign that Kerry is done:  When Bush switches to campaigning to expand the Senate Majority.

Cheney has a senate fundraiser in Oklahoma next week.

I assume it is not to shore up the state for Bush.

[The Vorlon]

+9 in New Hampshire but only +1 in West Virginia?

Strange.

MOE..

+/- 4.0 19/20

[classical liberal]

I would venture to say that the NH sample probably blew up.

[Gabu]

+9 in New Hampshire but only +1 in West Virginia?

Strange.

MOE..

+/- 4.0 19/20

I meant "strange" as in "that doesn't exactly sound right", not as in "I wonder why that is?".

In retrospect I could have picked a better word.

[lonestar]

This link has a good write up and some links more information about each poll.

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9700117.htm

[Rococo4]

That all looks about right to me - except NH is stunning.  I think most of us Bush supporters have assumed an NH loss.....I think that state is even or Kerry slightly up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

MO:  Bush 48%, Kerry 41%
AZ:   Bush 50%, Kerry 39%
NH:   Bush 49%, Kerry 40%
OH:   Bush 49% , Kerry 42%
WV:  Bush 45%, Kerry 44%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6038808/

Bush up 9 points in NH?
Toss it in the trash.

[Sam Spade]

I would make a complaint about polling factors, party registration, odd looking numbers or something like that, but there isn't any that I can make.  Of course any of these could be the 19/20 outlier or somewhere else within the +/-4% MOE, but it doesn't feel like any of these are.

This reminds me just that I should never trust Zogby interactive state polls or Zogby state polls ever.  If Bush pulls the 89% of Reps and 51% of Indys that he's pulling in NH here, he will most certainly win.  OTOH, if he's only pulling 25-30% of Dems in WV, along with every other Rep. and half of the Indy vote, WV will be very close.  And that's what Mason-Dixon seems to be saying.

The other thing we're seeing that I noticed when I started seeing polls (like Pew and Harris) out with no change among RV orientation and LV orientation was that Kerry was losing support among younger voters.  These polls seem to validate that thought, because in most of these states, Kerry is losing among 18-34 year olds as well.

[Sibboleth]

I've had a close look at the WV poll:

In WV-1, 10% are undecided, Bush is polling 48% Kerry is polling 41% Kerry will certainly get a majority of undecided voters in WV-1

In WV-2, 13% are undecided, but as both candidates are polling under 46% the undecideds will split more evenly.

In WV-3, 9% are undecided... Kerry is polling 49% Bush 41%. Almost all of those undecideds will break to Kerry.

Not as importent, but the age gap is interesting: Bush has a big lead amoung early middle aged voters, Kerry has a big lead amoung late middle aged voters, while the young and the old are split down the middle.
Over 13% of old voters are undecided.

Another interesting piece of info: 57% of Indies are undecided.

Other info shows that as per usual, WV-3 is the most socially conservative part of West Virgina.

Overall a good poll from Mason-Dixon and qualified good news for Kerry

[Sibboleth]

As a general point, there's a problem with the way polls are headlined:

It is NOT true to say that Bush leads in WV by 1pt. While he has a lead of X pts amoung decided voters, the poll included undecided voters. As a result it's more accurate to say that it's Bush 45, Kerry 44 than Bush leads by 1pt, which is an illogical misuse of the English language, encourage by a semi-illiterate media and parroted out by people who should know better.

</rant>

[StevenNick]

I'm not sure that it's safe to assume that the undecides will break for Kerry over Bush.  I think this election may upset the conventional wisdom in a big way as Kerry has done such a horrible job at establishing himself as a credible alternative to Bush.  Look for the undecides almost everywhere--but particularly in socially conservative West Virginia--to break for Bush over Kerry on election day.

[Sibboleth]

I'm not sure that it's safe to assume that the undecides will break for Kerry over Bush.  I think this election may upset the conventional wisdom in a big way as Kerry has done such a horrible job at establishing himself as a credible alternative to Bush.  Look for the undecides almost everywhere--but particularly in socially conservative West Virginia--to break for Bush over Kerry on election day.

Not more partisan bull (I am getting really, really sick of it... from both sides...) please READ what I said... (ie: in WV-2 undecideds will split more evenly) and please, please try to get your head around the idea that socially conservative does not=automatic Bush voter... especially in WV and especially Southern WV.

For everyones benifit:

WV-1 covers all of Northern WV, except the eastern panhandle. Strongly Democrat areas are the northern panhandle and the upper mon valley. Strongly GOP areas are the "Ohio Lands" and the Shenandadoah (never could spell it...) Mountains. Bush did unusually well their in 2000 because Gore performed pathetically in the northern panhandle.

WV-2 is all of Central WV, as well as the eastern panhandle. Strongly Democrat areas are the Kanawha Valley and anything else on the coalfield. Strongly Republican areas are the panhandle and the suburbs of Charleston.

WV-3 is all of Southern WV and is known as the Coal District.
The Democrats dominate the coalfield, the GOP do O.K in Huntington.
Gore (though he still won the district) performed abominally in WV-3 because of Kyoto, his attitude (including a percieved snub of local boy (heh) Byrd) and because he failed to even bother campaigning on populist economic issues.
This resulted in a low turnout in the mining communities and a lot of protest voting.
The fact that WV-3 is the most socially conservative district in WV (about 60% of people in WV-3 are Evangelicals... almost all in the mining communities) never comes up in elections.
Alternative to Bush be damned: Kerry has a "D" next to his name.
If Kerry doesn't do a hellofalot better in WV-3 than Gore I will be stunned.