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Author Topic: AK-Sen, AK-AL/R2k: No, Ted, you have been convicted, and the voters agree  (Read 2520 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: October 31, 2008, 05:35:57 pm »
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http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/132656/27

Senate:

Mark Begich (D) - 58
Ted Stevens (R) - 36

Previously a 48-46 lead for the non-felon.

House:

Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 53
Don Young (R) - 44

Up from 50-44 for Ethan.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2008, 12:58:45 am »
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If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.
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perdedor
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2008, 03:02:26 pm »
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I'm still not convinced that these guys are a credible polling source. None the less, Begich is going to win...Stevens is done. Likely not by this margin though, this is Alaska, of all god awful places.

If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.

I doubt that. Alaska has voted Democratic exactly once in the state's existence (for Johnson in 1964). The only other time in history that it has been close was in 1960 when Kennedy lost it by 1%. I wouldn't see much for Obama in Alaska, Palin or no Palin.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2008, 06:11:27 pm by perdedor »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2008, 02:49:30 am »
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If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.

I doubt that. Alaska has voted Democratic exactly once in the state's existence (for Johnson in 1964). The only other time in history that it has been close was in 1960 when Kennedy lost it by 1%. I wouldn't see much for Obama in Alaska, Palin or no Palin.

Look at the poll numbers pre-Palin announcement and tell me Obama couldn't have closed that gap given the state of the race at this point.  North Carolina and Missouri were both at a similar place as Alaska poll wise during the months prior to Palin's unveiling and now they are both looking like they could realistically go for Obama.  Without Palin on the ticket Alaska definitely would have at least been in Obama's second tier.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2008, 03:23:49 am »
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I was actually very worried about Alaska before the Palin pick.

Of course, it has the minimum number of electoral votes.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2008, 08:12:16 am »
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http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/132656/27

Senate:

Mark Begich (D) - 58
Ted Stevens (R) - 36

Previously a 48-46 lead for the non-felon.

House:

Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 53
Don Young (R) - 44

Up from 50-44 for Ethan.

Good both of these idiots are going to lose as they deserve. And if Lisa Murkowski is renominated you Democrats can take her out too in 2010. Berkowitz will probably be atop the GOP's 2010 wishlist. Parnell would be the top GOP candidate and he would have held this seat had he beaten Young. There are probably many other Republicans in this seat who like to move up the food chain as well so its not like Parnell is our only choice.
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perdedor
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2008, 06:13:00 pm »
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If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.

I doubt that. Alaska has voted Democratic exactly once in the state's existence (for Johnson in 1964). The only other time in history that it has been close was in 1960 when Kennedy lost it by 1%. I wouldn't see much for Obama in Alaska, Palin or no Palin.

Look at the poll numbers pre-Palin announcement and tell me Obama couldn't have closed that gap given the state of the race at this point.  North Carolina and Missouri were both at a similar place as Alaska poll wise during the months prior to Palin's unveiling and now they are both looking like they could realistically go for Obama.  Without Palin on the ticket Alaska definitely would have at least been in Obama's second tier.

I'm still not convinced. Current polls have North Dakota and NE-2 as competitive. These states will go solidly for McCain as would Alaska have had Palin not been selected.
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Daniel Adams
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2008, 03:32:08 pm »
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If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.

I doubt that. Alaska has voted Democratic exactly once in the state's existence (for Johnson in 1964). The only other time in history that it has been close was in 1960 when Kennedy lost it by 1%. I wouldn't see much for Obama in Alaska, Palin or no Palin.

Look at the poll numbers pre-Palin announcement and tell me Obama couldn't have closed that gap given the state of the race at this point.  North Carolina and Missouri were both at a similar place as Alaska poll wise during the months prior to Palin's unveiling and now they are both looking like they could realistically go for Obama.  Without Palin on the ticket Alaska definitely would have at least been in Obama's second tier.

I'm still not convinced. Current polls have North Dakota and NE-2 as competitive. These states will go solidly for McCain as would Alaska have had Palin not been selected.
NE-2 competitive? Cite, please.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2008, 04:10:07 pm »
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The polls showing NE-2 as competitive turned out to be accurate, which is more than I can say about this poll. 

Does this win some sort of prize as the furthest off poll this election?
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2008, 04:15:41 pm »
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The polls showing NE-2 as competitive turned out to be accurate, which is more than I can say about this poll. 

Does this win some sort of prize as the furthest off poll this election?

Alaska is just more Republican than how they poll.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2008, 04:16:47 pm »
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The polls showing NE-2 as competitive turned out to be accurate, which is more than I can say about this poll. 

Does this win some sort of prize as the furthest off poll this election?

Yes it does and I think I have set a record myself. I called to races in MN for the Republicans and turned out right and called two AK races for the Democrats and turned out wrong. wow!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2008, 07:16:15 pm »
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R2000 wasn't the greatest pollster, but it looks like there was a "Bradley effect" for convicted felons.

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2008, 08:13:14 pm »
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R2000 wasn't the greatest pollster, but it looks like there was a "Bradley effect" for convicted felons.

I think Alaska just has a Retarded effect.  Young won too, and he hasn't been convicted of anything (yet).
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