3 days out - What's your prediction?

[Lunar]

Obama wins FL-VA-NC-IN-OH-PA-NH-NM-IA-NV-CO-MO

Does not win NE-2, ND, AZ, MT, or GA

[afleitch]

[Јas]

364 - 174

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TxiVhrkZA

[pragmatic liberal]

Popular Vote:
Obama/Biden: 52%
McCain/Palin: 46%

Electoral Vote:
Obama/Biden: 364
McCain/Palin: 174

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 420
McCain - 118

Obama's superior advantage in organization absolutely decimates McCain in states that Bush won by comfortable margins in 2004.  Blacks turn out in droves.  Young people also turn out like never before (in N.C., Obama is crushing McCain in terms of support for young people.  And these kids are actually going to the polls.  They are enthused about Obama and they are voting.)  I was in line last week.  Everyone was sporting Obama signs.  I think there was one McCain voter in there, but he was an old white guy who was probably racist.  There was so much enthusiasm on the Dem side and so much depression on the Republican side.  A lot of people are not going to vote because they feel like McCain has no chance.  They just don't want to bother.

South Carolina goes Democrat in the biggest upset of the night.  It becomes apparent that it will be a long night for Republicans when Indiana and Kentucky are both "too close to call" (Indiana goes Obama by 4%, Kentucky stays Republican).  Obama has huge coattails, Democrats get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a gain of almost 30 seats in Congress.  States like Colorado, Virginia, are blowouts.  McCain is embarrassed in his home state, which narrowly goes Obama.

The reason for this historic landslide?  A hunger for change, and a belief that Obama is the agent of change.  The "socialist" attacks won't stick (most Americans want socialism now anyway).

Most of the blame for the election, however, will go to Sarah Palin, for depressing Republican turnout and sending independents firmly to the Obama camp.  It will be said that McCain might have won.  Sarah Palin goes down as one of the most disastrous VP picks in history, on par with Thomas Eagleton (probably worse because McGovern never had a chance anyway, and Eagleton wasn't actually psycho).

Earliest time the Republicans gain back Congress is the 2020s.  The Presidency, maybe never.  The party is quickly collapsing between the libertarians and the fundies.  Should the party survive, then a 2032 victory is possible, but still unlikely.

The Bradley effect, meanwhile, will be ridiculed for years to come, and will never be cited by a non-partisan pollster ever again.

Oh yeah, and Pennsylvania?  Not even close.  Called right as polls close, perhaps even sooner.  The margin might be as large as the Casey-Santorum margin.  Keystone Phil and especially J.J. get pwned (again).  They leave the forum in humiliation.

[Lief]

Oh yeah, and Pennsylvania?  Not even close.  Called right as polls close, perhaps even sooner.  The margin might be as large as the Casey-Santorum margin.  Keystone Phil and especially J.J. get pwned (again).  They leave the forum in humiliation.

lol

[Ronnie]

You're hilarious, Vander Blubb.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

My final prediction for the 2008 Presidential Election is this:



Barack H. Obama/Joseph R. Biden (D): 353 EV, 52% of the PV
John S. McCain III/Sarah L. Palin (R): 153 EV, 46% of the PV
Others (Libertarian, Independents, etc): 0 EV, 2% of the PV

[SPC]

Brain:



Gut:



While my brain says that 2 days is too short of a time for McCain to make serious change in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, my guts says that the recent up trends in those states, plus Obama being under 50% in all of them, will give McCain an underdog victory.

[afleitch]

While my brain says that 2 days is too short of a time for McCain to make serious change in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, my guts says that the recent up trends in those states, plus Obama being under 50% in all of them, will give McCain an underdog victory.

Likewise, your 'gut' should be giving Georgia, Montana and maybe even Arizona to Obama on the same principle.

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

this is what I think will happen/what I'm hopeing for. 
53% Obama Biden 
44% Mccain Palin

my gut says people are racist and the dems are going to blow it though, my gut always expects
the worst possible thing to happen when it comes poliltics.
49% obama
48% mccain     

[Beef]

Obama's superior advantage in organization absolutely decimates McCain in states that Bush won by comfortable margins in 2004.  Blacks turn out in droves.  Young people also turn out like never before (in N.C., Obama is crushing McCain in terms of support for young people.  And these kids are actually going to the polls.  They are enthused about Obama and they are voting.)  I was in line last week.  Everyone was sporting Obama signs.

The fact that campaign material is not permitted by law within a certain distance of the polling place leads me to doubt (slightly) the veracity of your anecdote.

Probably true, though.

[platypeanArchcow]

Going on the assumption that a lot of undecideds will go to McCain.  I'm least sure about Ohio and Nevada.

[JSojourner]

I don't know if this will be my final map or not. But I agree with people who are saying it will be close.

[© Tweed the Younger]

McCain is far more likely to top out at the high-50s in Utah than he is to reach 70%.

[JSojourner]

McCain is far more likely to top out at the high-50s in Utah than he is to reach 70%.

I don't pay quite as much attention to accuracy on percentages when I do these.  I shade some states darker simply to indicate the likeliness or unlikeliness of a change.  The darker the blue, the more ironclad the state is for McCain...and vice versa for Obama and red.

Yeah, I don't think McCain will garner 70 in Utah.  But 60-63 percent is quite likely, I think.

[Lunar]

Obama - 420
McCain - 118

Obama's superior advantage in organization absolutely decimates McCain in states that Bush won by comfortable margins in 2004.  Blacks turn out in droves.  Young people also turn out like never before (in N.C., Obama is crushing McCain in terms of support for young people.  And these kids are actually going to the polls.  They are enthused about Obama and they are voting.)  I was in line last week.  Everyone was sporting Obama signs.  I think there was one McCain voter in there, but he was an old white guy who was probably racist.  There was so much enthusiasm on the Dem side and so much depression on the Republican side.  A lot of people are not going to vote because they feel like McCain has no chance.  They just don't want to bother.

South Carolina goes Democrat in the biggest upset of the night.  It becomes apparent that it will be a long night for Republicans when Indiana and Kentucky are both "too close to call" (Indiana goes Obama by 4%, Kentucky stays Republican).  Obama has huge coattails, Democrats get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a gain of almost 30 seats in Congress.  States like Colorado, Virginia, are blowouts.  McCain is embarrassed in his home state, which narrowly goes Obama.

The reason for this historic landslide?  A hunger for change, and a belief that Obama is the agent of change.  The "socialist" attacks won't stick (most Americans want socialism now anyway).

Most of the blame for the election, however, will go to Sarah Palin, for depressing Republican turnout and sending independents firmly to the Obama camp.  It will be said that McCain might have won.  Sarah Palin goes down as one of the most disastrous VP picks in history, on par with Thomas Eagleton (probably worse because McGovern never had a chance anyway, and Eagleton wasn't actually psycho).

Earliest time the Republicans gain back Congress is the 2020s.  The Presidency, maybe never.  The party is quickly collapsing between the libertarians and the fundies.  Should the party survive, then a 2032 victory is possible, but still unlikely.

The Bradley effect, meanwhile, will be ridiculed for years to come, and will never be cited by a non-partisan pollster ever again.

Oh yeah, and Pennsylvania?  Not even close.  Called right as polls close, perhaps even sooner.  The margin might be as large as the Casey-Santorum margin.  Keystone Phil and especially J.J. get pwned (again).  They leave the forum in humiliation.

I think you forgot to mention the senate.

Figures upsets Sessions, LaRocco upsets Risch, Slatter upsets Roberts, etc.  The Democrats pick up 21 seats previously held by Republicans.

However, in the true surprise of the night, Mark Pryor loses he reelection bid against his sole opponent, Green Party candidate Kennedy, but she caucuses with the Democrats so it's ok.

[Lief]

However, in the true surprise of the night, Mark Pryor loses he reelection bid against his sole opponent, Green Party candidate Kennedy, but she caucuses with the Democrats so it's ok.

Wow. I'd be willing to trade an Obama landslide for that.

[Senator Ben]

Obama/Biden: 52% PV, 349 EV
McCain/Palin: 47% PV, 189 EV

[nick]

PV:  Obama 50.8; McCain 48.3
EV:  Obama 291; McCain 247

[SPC]

While my brain says that 2 days is too short of a time for McCain to make serious change in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, my guts says that the recent up trends in those states, plus Obama being under 50% in all of them, will give McCain an underdog victory.

Likewise, your 'gut' should be giving Georgia, Montana and maybe even Arizona to Obama on the same principle.

No, because most undecideds at this point are going to go for McCain. Thus, McCain's standing could be said to be 100%-(whatever Obama is polling right now). Since Obama is under 50% in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, and very close to 50% in Pennsylvania, it is not unreasonable to think McCain has a decent chance at all of those states. Of course, a McCain win is still unlikely, and that is why my brain is usually more accurate with political predictions.

[Sam Spade]

Where's Sam?

I'm around.   

I'm also still trying to wrap my fingers around this election.

[WillK]

Obama's superior advantage in organization absolutely decimates McCain in states that Bush won by comfortable margins in 2004.  Blacks turn out in droves.  Young people also turn out like never before (in N.C., Obama is crushing McCain in terms of support for young people.  And these kids are actually going to the polls.  They are enthused about Obama and they are voting.) ...

South Carolina goes Democrat in the biggest upset of the night.  It becomes apparent that it will be a long night for Republicans ...

I was going to write something similar but add that the moment the entire Atlantic seaboard is called for Obama, the night will seem incredibly short for McCain.

[Jacobtm]

53-46



Hardly a steadfast guarantee, there are about 10 other circumstances that are just about as likely; this is just a best guess, and truly a guess at that.