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Author Topic: Real Bradley effect in this election  (Read 7725 times)
8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« on: November 01, 2008, 12:09:01 pm »
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The concept behind the Bradley effect is that sometimes people don't want to admit to others that they are voting in a way that is politically incorrect.

I think there is a Bradley effect in this election but not what people think.  We are a "center-right" electorate.  In my business circle, it is not politically correct to support a democrat.  It's the oddman out.  I don't care, I stood up for Obama early.  The republicans do not deserve to win the White House 8 out of the last 11 elections.  They have not performed.

Yes, there is a Bradley effect.  It will be those telling the pollsters and their friends that they are voting for McCain reluctant to be politically incorrect by admiting that they are supporting a democrat. 
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For 40 years since 1968, the republican party has won 7 out of 10 presidential contests.  Do they really deserve 8 out of 11?
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2008, 12:10:45 pm »
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Actually, this has nothing to do with the Bradley Effect.
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2008, 02:37:00 pm »
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Actually, this has nothing to do with the Bradley Effect.

Actually, it does, although it approaches it differently.

Overall I'd like to believe this effect is true, but I think the real Bradley Effect will swing the election about .3% to McCain. r
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2008, 03:19:44 pm »
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Actually, this has nothing to do with the Bradley Effect.

Actually, it does, although it approaches it differently.

Overall I'd like to believe this effect is true, but I think the real Bradley Effect will swing the election about .3% to McCain. r

Actually, it isn't, though it be voting for someone black but telling people ypu're voting for the white guy.

My guess is a 1-2 point Bradley Effect, but looking at 2006, 3-4 is more likely.
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2008, 04:00:54 pm »
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What's 2 or 3 points out of what is looking like 7 points?

I am going to say-

Obama 51.25
McCain 47.25
Random Rejects 1.5

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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2008, 09:08:08 pm »
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People keep saying we are a "center right" nation, and yet polls consistently show voters support Democrats on nearly every issue. So I don't see the evidence for this claim, unless you believe the Democrats are the centrist party and the Republicans the far right party, in which narrow preferences for Democrats would actually be considered right of center.

I would agree that we are a center-right nation compared to the rest of the world, but certainly not in a context in which Democrats are considered left and Republicans right.
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2008, 10:12:06 pm »
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People keep saying we are a "center right" nation, and yet polls consistently show voters support Democrats on nearly every issue. So I don't see the evidence for this claim, unless you believe the Democrats are the centrist party and the Republicans the far right party, in which narrow preferences for Democrats would actually be considered right of center.

I would agree that we are a center-right nation compared to the rest of the world, but certainly not in a context in which Democrats are considered left and Republicans right.

Two words: political environment
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2008, 11:01:14 pm »
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Remember, Bradley ran for governor before the days of all of the polling that we have today.  Sure there are some who will fall into this category, but it must be a very few.  I doubt that thousands of people are consistantly fooling the polsters ALL of the time in ALL of the polls that are out their ALL the way through the campaign.  Bradly also did not register a googleplex of new voters.

But Wilder didn't, nor did Patrick, Steele or Blackwell.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2008, 11:48:43 pm »
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People keep saying we are a "center right" nation, and yet polls consistently show voters support Democrats on nearly every issue. So I don't see the evidence for this claim, unless you believe the Democrats are the centrist party and the Republicans the far right party, in which narrow preferences for Democrats would actually be considered right of center.

I would agree that we are a center-right nation compared to the rest of the world, but certainly not in a context in which Democrats are considered left and Republicans right.

Two words: political environment

Leaving aside the question of whether the environment is a product of the nation's ideology or vice versa (would you have said we were still a center left country in 1980?), polls showing Democratic preferences on most issues has existed for at least two decades (the only consistent exceptions being foreign policy/national security issues and a spike in preference for Republicans on all issues in the aftermath of 9/11).
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2008, 12:27:00 am »
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Remember, Bradley ran for governor before the days of all of the polling that we have today.  Sure there are some who will fall into this category, but it must be a very few.  I doubt that thousands of people are consistantly fooling the polsters ALL of the time in ALL of the polls that are out their ALL the way through the campaign.  Bradly also did not register a googleplex of new voters.

But Wilder didn't, nor did Patrick, Steele or Blackwell.

Nor did Patrick, Steele or Blackwell overpoll outside of the MoE (or overpoll at all in Patrick's case.)
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2008, 12:51:43 am »
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People keep saying we are a "center right" nation, and yet polls consistently show voters support Democrats on nearly every issue. So I don't see the evidence for this claim, unless you believe the Democrats are the centrist party and the Republicans the far right party, in which narrow preferences for Democrats would actually be considered right of center.

I would agree that we are a center-right nation compared to the rest of the world, but certainly not in a context in which Democrats are considered left and Republicans right.

The whole notion of there being such a thing as a "center right" or "center left" nation is kind of nonsensical, since there's no widely agreed upon definition of where the political center is.  You can come up with some kind of scale relative to other countries, I suppose, but it's pretty much impossible to plot all the countries of the world on the same ideological spectrum, since the issues are so different from place to place.

Or you could just define the ideological center in the US as being the ideology of the media voter there.  If that was your approach, then the US is "centrist", by definition.

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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2008, 02:22:59 am »
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I actually think we are a more "center left" country now or atleast in most important states.

I think the republicans have more support among people who vote in elections, although this year could be the end to that.

Look at TV and movies today.. if we were still a "center right" country theres no way some of this stuff would be on the air waves or as popular.
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2008, 02:53:49 am »
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I actually think we are a more "center left" country now or atleast in most important states.

I think the republicans have more support among people who vote in elections, although this year could be the end to that.

Look at TV and movies today.. if we were still a "center right" country theres no way some of this stuff would be on the air waves or as popular.

Again, all of this is based on a purely subjective decision about where to place the ideological center.

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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2008, 03:36:37 am »
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I actually think we are a more "center left" country now or atleast in most important states.

No, as long as working class americans believe that they can 'improve their condition' or perhaps even 'get rich' through 'their own efforts', the US will remain a right-wing country.  Alas, most people still believe this nonsense - less than before, it is true, but still a clear majority.

Add to this basic hubris race hatred and social issues, and we're a long way from being even a centrist country, alas.
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2008, 02:42:43 pm »
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Remember, Bradley ran for governor before the days of all of the polling that we have today.  Sure there are some who will fall into this category, but it must be a very few.  I doubt that thousands of people are consistantly fooling the polsters ALL of the time in ALL of the polls that are out their ALL the way through the campaign.  Bradly also did not register a googleplex of new voters.

But Wilder didn't, nor did Patrick, Steele or Blackwell.

Nor did Patrick, Steele or Blackwell overpoll outside of the MoE (or overpoll at all in Patrick's case.)

Actually, in all cases, their opponents did.  We'll know in about 60 hours.
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J. J.

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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2008, 03:27:25 pm »
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I've kept quite about this but I must say I find it greatly amusing that at this stage the best argument that republican victory coming from the Republicans themselves is "We are still in with a fighting chance: we have the racists on our side"

This is why I post on this forum folks. American politics couldn't be any more of a parody of itself.
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2008, 04:12:34 pm »
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I've kept quite about this but I must say I find it greatly amusing that at this stage the best argument that republican victory coming from the Republicans themselves is "We are still in with a fighting chance: we have the racists on our side"

Yes, it is rather funny.

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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2008, 04:23:28 pm »
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I've kept quite about this but I must say I find it greatly amusing that at this stage the best argument that republican victory coming from the Republicans themselves is "We are still in with a fighting chance: we have the racists on our side"

Yes, it is rather funny.

Quote
American politics couldn't be any more of a parody of itself.

Don't tempt fate, don't tempt fate...

Palin/Jenna Jameson '12: Fighting to restore Morals to America. Would the Democrats consider giving O.J a call, I know he's in prison and all, but surely BO can "change" that.
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« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2008, 07:32:48 pm »
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Ted Stevens was the real Bradley effect.  I knew it would happen, but I didn't think by that much.
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2008, 05:58:58 pm »
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People keep saying we are a "center right" nation, and yet polls consistently show voters support Democrats on nearly every issue. So I don't see the evidence for this claim, unless you believe the Democrats are the centrist party and the Republicans the far right party, in which narrow preferences for Democrats would actually be considered right of center.

I would agree that we are a center-right nation compared to the rest of the world, but certainly not in a context in which Democrats are considered left and Republicans right.
democrats tend to be center right.
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2008, 09:21:02 pm »
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People keep saying we are a "center right" nation, and yet polls consistently show voters support Democrats on nearly every issue. So I don't see the evidence for this claim, unless you believe the Democrats are the centrist party and the Republicans the far right party, in which narrow preferences for Democrats would actually be considered right of center.

I would agree that we are a center-right nation compared to the rest of the world, but certainly not in a context in which Democrats are considered left and Republicans right.
democrats tend to be center right.

From a world perspective, that's true. So I guess if that's what people mean by the US being a "center right" country, then I'd agree.
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« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2008, 01:10:38 am »
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Calling America a center-right or center-left country is ridiculous because there are many Americas and it's impossible to describe the entire country with either of those terms.

Another reason why it's ridiculous to use such terms is because they're more appropriate for economic issues while in America social issues seem to be of more importance.
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