Just going by the polling, neither OH nor NC should be lean Obama. At best, a tossup.
PA should be lean Obama.
The problem is that Stu uses only a 5 rating system as opposed to a 7 or 9 rating system.
5 ratings = strong gop, lean gop, tossup, lean dem, strong dem
7 ratings = strong gop, mod gop, lean gop, tossup, lean dem, mod dem, strong dem
9 ratings = safe gop, strong gop, mod gop, lean gop, tossup, lean dem, mod dem, strong dem, safe dem
(or you can do 3 rating like The Washington Post...lean gop, tossup, lean dem)
So there is no "moderate" rating for Stu. PA falls more into the "moderate dem" category rather than the "lean dem" category so Stu probably just pushed it into the stronger of the two rating choices.
CQPolitics which uses a 7 rating system - PA is mod dem
Larry Sabato uses a 7 rating system - PA is lean dem (but hasn't been updated since Oct 16)
Cook Political uses a 7 rating system - PA is lean dem (then again they have MI/WI/IA/NM all lean dem too...don't know when this was last updated either)
