Oregon: PacNW Domination Thread Part II
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  Oregon: PacNW Domination Thread Part II
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2008, 02:09:11 AM »

OK--- here is a compilation of the precinct returns from Benton County.

Corvallis city-  6845 (25.5%) -20,008 (74.5%) Obama won convincingly in all precincts, including a 78-22 win on the exclusive OSU precincts, 71-29 in the most blue-collar region of the city (South Corvallis) where historically anti-gay and abortion related ballot initiatives have almost passed since the '80s. (I threw out my precinct returns from the '80s and early '90s about 10 years ago when I moved making it hard to compare on top of precinct boundary changes)  Sad

Benton County- (outside of the city of Corvallis) 8419-9863 (46-54%) McCain-Obama

Corvallis rural- ( middle and upper-middle-class homeowners and Corvallis commuters) 61-39% Obama

Philomath (historic mill town turned Corvallis bedroom community) 56-44% Obama

West Albany- (suburban West Albany, wealthy suburban and exurban historically heavily Republican Region) 53-47% McCain

West Albany rural (wealthy exurban)--- 60-40% McCain

Adair City (working-class commuter village) 55-45% McCain

Monroe (blue-collar semi-rural population center) 53-47% Obama

Alsea- (Rural Benton Co, large Christian Conservative + timber population) 54-46% McCain

Kings Valley/Wren+ Alpine (Rural timber, counter-culture, and agricultural precincts)- 52-48% Obama.

Interesting observations: Obama exceeded every single Democratic margin in the city of Corvallis and the student precincts ever. Don't forget the city only went 53-47 for Mondale in'84. Student precincts went for Reagan by a decent margin (even better if you include the old "frat row" precinct 23 from the '80s that went 60-40 Reagan in'84.

West Albany has historically been the most Republican part of the county going 60-40% for the Republican nominee and 70-30 in the late '80s. It only narrowly went for McCain this election (makes me want to look at Albany proper more closely this time around).

Wealthy suburban and exurban Corvallis precincts went overwhelmingly for Obama, despite the fact they are the wealthiest parts of the county (excepting West Albany perhaps)

Rural and blue-collar commuting areas of the county had a mixed record, with Adair Village over-performing for the Republicans, with Obama doing quite well in the SW part of the county and the former mill town of Philomath (although there are still two active mills in the area).



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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2008, 06:24:32 PM »

That's mill as in saw mill, right [qm]
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2008, 01:15:06 PM »

That's mill as in saw mill, right [qm]

Yes... lumber mill, saw mill, plywood mill

Not too much other heavy industry in this county, unless you include high-tech (Hewlett-Packard).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2008, 02:06:22 PM »

OK---- I have spent a little time looking through the Lane Co, Oregon precinct returns:

Eugene City--- 21,200-70,000 (Obama)  26-74% (Obama)
Springfield City--- 9,200-14,100 (Obama), 40-60% (Obama)
Eugene Springfield Metro Other--- 6,000-9,800 (Obama), 38-62% (Obama)

Small Town LaneCo  9,100- 9,700 (Obama), 48-52% (Obama)
Rural LaneCo  19,900-20,900 (Obama), 49-51% (Obama)

Note that several of these "rural" precincts may actually be part of metro as it can be hard to draw a fine line with exurban development, but the overall numbers should be representative since Oregon's zoning laws make it difficult to have development outside of designated urban-growth boundaries.

Cottage Grove- Smaller mill town, increasing number of Eugene transplants 48-52% Obama
Florence- Wealthy retirees, tourist coastal town 45-55% Obama
Oakridge- Older mill town in the cascades  43-57% Obama
Junction City- agricultural, several active timber mills  52-48% McCain

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2008, 02:07:53 PM »

Marion County




Salem: 57-40 Obama
Woodburn: 54-44 Obama

Thanks Alcon!
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Alcon
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« Reply #30 on: November 29, 2008, 02:21:18 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2008, 02:28:50 PM by Alcon »

City of Ashland
Barack Obama 10,633 (83.55%)
John McCain 1,766 (13.88%)
Ralph Nader 112 (0.88%)
Write-ins 82 (0.64%)
Cynthia McKinney 61 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 40 (0.31%)
Bob Barr 33 (0.26%)

Impressive.  84.09%-13.97% without write-ins.  Will be a close run with Seattle (Ashland was barely more Dem in '04)
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2008, 01:32:01 AM »

Jackson County




Ashland: 84-14 Obama
Butte Falls: 62-34 McCain
Central Point: 60-37 McCain
Eagle Point: 63-34 McCain
Gold Hill: 52-46 McCain
Jacksonville: 50-47 McCain
Medford: 51-46 McCain
Phoenix: 52-45 Obama
Rogue River: 56-40 McCain
Shady Cove: 58-38 McCain
Talent: 64-33 Obama
Unincorporated: 55-42 McCain

Impressive swing in Talent -- it seems to be gradually turning into an Ashland satellite town (Phoenix too, to a much lesser extent)

I am still amazed that Obama came close to winning Jackson Co with results like these....

This looks like a potentially winning combo for Dems at the county level. Losing Medford by <5, winning Ashland by 4-1, and winning Talent/Phoenix by 5-10 point margins.

The interesting thing here is that the Democratic stronghold of Ashland is one of slowest growing communities in the county as a result of strong land-use planning and zoning laws that are strongest in liberal communities around the state. Despite the low rate of population growth Democrats in one smaller city are almost able to win this county with one of the most rapid increases in land value.
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Alcon
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« Reply #32 on: November 30, 2008, 01:48:46 AM »

Obama did win Jackson County, actually, by 47 votes.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2008, 02:07:32 AM »

Obama did win Jackson County, actually, by 47 votes.

Holy crap!

I double checked the SoS results, but you are absolutely correct.

This is huge, although Obama did narrowly lose Deschutes, unlike a prediction i made a few months back. Sad

Regardless this is significant in terms of Dem trend in fast growing counties outside of Metro-
Portland which is a potentially bad sign for future Republican candidates at the state and Federal level.
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Alcon
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« Reply #34 on: December 01, 2008, 05:42:14 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2008, 05:47:25 PM by Alcon »

My bad, by the way, Ashland was Kerry +61.56 and Seattle was Kerry +62.72.  So, I was wrong.

Once I get a few checks out, I think I'll be able to post the statewide precinct file.
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Sbane
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« Reply #35 on: December 01, 2008, 06:58:38 PM »

City of Ashland
Barack Obama 10,633 (83.55%)
John McCain 1,766 (13.88%)
Ralph Nader 112 (0.88%)
Write-ins 82 (0.64%)
Cynthia McKinney 61 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 40 (0.31%)
Bob Barr 33 (0.26%)

Impressive.  84.09%-13.97% without write-ins.  Will be a close run with Seattle (Ashland was barely more Dem in '04)

Ashland is a FF city. Wouldn't guess it if you just drove by it on the freeway. How was the swing in Medford and the Rogue valley as compared to the county?
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Alcon
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« Reply #36 on: December 01, 2008, 07:00:49 PM »

City of Ashland
Barack Obama 10,633 (83.55%)
John McCain 1,766 (13.88%)
Ralph Nader 112 (0.88%)
Write-ins 82 (0.64%)
Cynthia McKinney 61 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 40 (0.31%)
Bob Barr 33 (0.26%)

Impressive.  84.09%-13.97% without write-ins.  Will be a close run with Seattle (Ashland was barely more Dem in '04)

Ashland is a FF city. Wouldn't guess it if you just drove by it on the freeway. How was the swing in Medford and the Rogue valley as compared to the county?

Medford was 59-40 Bush in '04, so the swing there was pretty healthy.

Honestly I'm not 100% sure offhand where the Rogue River Valley lies relative to the precincts, but swing across the county looked pretty steady.  Butte Falls and Eagle Point were both R>70 in '04, for instance.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #37 on: December 01, 2008, 10:55:51 PM »

My bad, by the way, Ashland was Kerry +61.56 and Seattle was Kerry +62.72.  So, I was wrong.

Once I get a few checks out, I think I'll be able to post the statewide precinct file.

Pleeze do!!!!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: December 04, 2008, 09:27:48 PM »

Multnomah County, Ore.
New style:



Atlas style:



Multnomah County Precincts Only

Portland- 80-17 Obama

(West Portland)  81-16 Obama
(North Portland) 82-15 Obama
(Northeast Portland) 86-11 Obama
(Southeast Portland) 83-14 Obama
(East Portland) 64-32 Obama


Unincorporated County- 57-40 Obama
Lake Oswego 69-28 Obama
Maywood Park 66-31 Obama
Fairview 59-38 Obama
Troutdale 54-42 Obama
Wood Village 62-34 Obama
Gresham 57-40 Obama
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #39 on: January 12, 2009, 09:16:06 PM »


Alcon,

Any update on the Oregon precinct results project yet?  Smiley

I have an incomplete set and am still missing the "pay counties"....

If you have additional data sets to share that would be most appreciated.   Smiley


I hope everything is going well with your school / career search!

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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: January 12, 2009, 10:27:22 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2009, 10:39:25 PM by Alcon »

Thanks!

I actually did some fiddling the other day with municipal results.  Oregon is awful with split districts and municipalities.  Washington County, refreshingly, isn't.  So I got these results for the Portland municipal area (* indicates some splitting).  Obama won every municipality.

Beaverton: 65-32 Obama (57-42)
Durham: 62-37 Obama (53-46)
Fairview: 60-38 Obama (56-43)
Gladstone: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Gresham: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Happy Valley: 50-49 Obama (41-58)
Hillsboro: 59-38 Obama (50-48)
Johnson City: 58-37 Obama (52-45)
King City: 57-41 Obama (54-45)
Lake Oswego: 63-35 Obama (56-43)
Maywood Park: 66-31 Obama (63-36)
Milwaukie: 65-32 Obama (61-38)
Oregon City: 54-43 Obama (49-50)
Portland: 81-17 Obama (76-23)
Rivergrove*: 66-33 Obama (59-40)
Sherwood: 51-47 Obama (41-58)
Tigard: 60-38 Obama (53-46)
Troutdale*: 55-42 Obama (50-49)
Tualatin: 57-41 Obama (48-51)
West Linn: 59-39 Obama (52-47)
Wilsonville: 52-46 Obama (45-54)
Wood Village: 62-34 Obama (55-44)

I've included results (excluding Washington County, which I have too little data for) from 2004 in parentheses.  Portland is a corrected number from 80-17 -- apparently the Portland Golf Club precinct in Washington County isn't in Portland.

But, anyway, every city in the metro Portland area voted Obama.

As for the rest...I'm forwarding the check-writing request off tonight.  So far I have: Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Umatilla and Washington.  I should be able to add a bunch more to that list shortly.

Anything I can provide in the meantime?  Smiley

Edit: Found Washington County for '04.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2009, 10:59:42 PM »

Thanks!

I actually did some fiddling the other day with municipal results.  Oregon is awful with split districts and municipalities.  Washington County, refreshingly, isn't.  So I got these results for the Portland municipal area (* indicates some splitting).  Obama won every municipality.

Beaverton: 65-32 Obama (57-42)
Durham: 62-37 Obama (53-46)
Fairview: 60-38 Obama (56-43)
Gladstone: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Gresham: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Happy Valley: 50-49 Obama (41-58)
Hillsboro: 59-38 Obama (50-48)
Johnson City: 58-37 Obama (52-45)
King City: 57-41 Obama (54-45)
Lake Oswego: 63-35 Obama (56-43)
Maywood Park: 66-31 Obama (63-36)
Milwaukie: 65-32 Obama (61-38)
Oregon City: 54-43 Obama (49-50)
Portland: 81-17 Obama (76-23)
Rivergrove*: 66-33 Obama (59-40)
Sherwood: 51-47 Obama (41-58)
Tigard: 60-38 Obama (53-46)
Troutdale*: 55-42 Obama (50-49)
Tualatin: 57-41 Obama (48-51)
West Linn: 59-39 Obama (52-47)
Wilsonville: 52-46 Obama (45-54)
Wood Village: 62-34 Obama (55-44)

I've included results (excluding Washington County, which I have too little data for) from 2004 in parentheses.  Portland is a corrected number from 80-17 -- apparently the Portland Golf Club precinct in Washington County isn't in Portland.

But, anyway, every city in the metro Portland area voted Obama.

As for the rest...I'm forwarding the check-writing request off tonight.  So far I have: Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Umatilla and Washington.  I should be able to add a bunch more to that list shortly.

Anything I can provide in the meantime?  Smiley

Edit: Found Washington County for '04.

OK--- I have all of the county returns above except: Harney, Hood River, Klamath, Linn, and Umatilla.

The only ones on that list that you do not have listed are Douglas and Yamhill Counties, which I have a copy of and have converted to Excel.

City results not listed:

Canby (Exurban Portland): 46-52 McCain
Clackamas Unincorporated (Urban/Suburban) 59-38 Obama
Washington Co Unincorporated (Urban/suburban) 62-35 Obama
Newburg (Exburban Portland- Yamhill County) 46-51 McCain

I have city results for other municipalities on the counties that we both have results for....

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Alcon
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« Reply #42 on: January 21, 2009, 07:42:26 PM »

I sent money in for all but missing counties but Wasco ($40, pending).  That means Baker, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Josephine, Malheur, Tillamook and Wallowa.

Incorporation data all in.  Adding CD info.

Fixed a few data errors in Hood River (zeroed Nader in one precinct); Jackson (McCain -1 in one precinct); Linn (screwed up columns, major third party fixes); and Yamhill (fixed write-ins in two places).

Someone at Portland Metro GIS is going to send me a precinct map of the entire metro area.  Should have that up in a while.
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Alcon
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« Reply #43 on: January 21, 2009, 08:22:27 PM »

Oregon congressional results:

OR-1 (Wuu [D])
Includes the counties of Washington [NW Portland suburbs]; Clatsop [Astoria]; Columbia [St. Helens and other mill/neo-commuter towns]; and extreme southwestern Multnomah County, including parts of Portland.

Obama +24.77%

Barack Obama 228,817 (61.04%)
John McCain 135,975 (36.27%)
Ralph Nader 3,423
Cynthia McKinney 743
Bob Barr 1,758
Chuck Baldwin 1,516
Write-ins 2,646

OR-3 (Blumenauer [D])
Includes the bulk of Multnomah County, including most of Portland, and all of Gresham and Troutdale, stretching to the heavily-forested west.  Also includes a small portion of suburban Clackamas County (Milwaukie), and some rural areas to the west and southwest, eventually stretching to Mt. Hood.

Obama +46.12%

Barack Obama 273,952 (71.68%)
John McCain 97,688 (25.56%)
Ralph Nader 4,404
Cynthia McKinney 1,176
Bob Barr 1,254
Chuck Baldwin 1,082
Write-in 2,608

OR-5 (Schrader [D])
Includes the counties of Tillamook (like the cheese); Lincoln (Pacific beach towns); Polk (Dallas); Marion (Salem, the state cap, and its myriad exurbs); as well as portions of Benton County around the northern part of Corvallis (OSU); suburban parts of Clackamas (West Linn, Lake Oswego); and the exurban/rural southern half of Clackamas.

Obama +8.21%

Barack Obama 178,531 (52.73%)
John McCain 150,731 (44.52%)
Ralph Nader 3,228
Cynthia McKinney 831
Bob Barr 1,381
Chuck Baldwin 1,361
Write-in 2,516

OR-2 & OR-5
Pending Josephine County.  OR-2 contains the core of the Grants Pass area.  OR-5 contains everything else.

Without that county, McCain leads OR-2 by a margin of 53.65% to 43.48% (McCain +10.17%); and trails OR-4 by a margin of 54.17% to 42.77% (Obama +11.40%).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: January 23, 2009, 01:37:47 AM »

Portland metro (Counties of Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington)





Pretty map.

Nice maps for sure... Thanks Alcon!

What is most visually apparent is how little support the Reps currently have within the metro area...  Looking at where population densities are located, there are few pockets of Republican support left. Wilsonville flipped Dem '08, and the largest municipality I could find in Clackamas that backed McCain was Damascus (that splotch of blue in the North-Central area that is relatively small ex-urban, and Canby, which is arguable how much a part of Metro it is.

Washington county has few precinct wins of large population centers.... McCain's largest precinct he won was the rural NW of the county with 1800 voters by a margin of 52-44. The largest urban precinct (one of only two metro counties in Washington County that went Rep) he won was in Tualatin by only 12 votes, and one in Tigard by 1 vote!

Not too sure about that splotch of red in the SW corner of Washington Co.... community is supposedly "Cherry Grove" where a Swedish immigrant founded a lumber mill, although the only real period the industry prospered here was for a few decades after the Tillamook forest fire. Although fruit orchards have also been referenced, and this would be an area with a decent Latino population.

I count only three precincts in Multnomah that McCain won, the only one of decent population being #5604, which is essentially on the SE edge of Gresham and halfway to Boring, Oregon.

Republicans cannot expect to win Oregon at the national level with such an atrocious performance in all of Metro Portland...

If you were to contrast this with a precinct map versus Smith, it would be a very different color scheme, even in key suburban cities indeed! And remember of course that Smith still lost by almost 4 points...
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Alcon
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« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2009, 03:03:20 AM »

Thanks for your comments.  Senate map tomorrow, time inevitably permitting.  This format is very easy to make maps with -- their shapefile's lines are ordered by county, and then precinct #, with no repeats, just like my spreadsheet!  I'm happy to do any requests, if there are any interesting obscuro races I'm missing.
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Alcon
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« Reply #46 on: January 23, 2009, 05:29:34 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2009, 08:29:45 PM by Alcon »

OR-1: Obama 228817, McCain 135975, Nader 3423, McKinney 743, Barr 1758, Baldwin 1516, Write-in 2646
OR-2: Obama 154848, McCain 193002, Nader 3454, McKinney 1340, Barr 1596, Baldwin 1971, Write-in 2112
OR-3: Obama 260128, McCain 93931, Nader 4237, McKinney 1143, Barr 1186, Baldwin 1056, Write-in 2522
OR-4: Obama 201143, McCain 161079, Nader 4105, McKinney 1399, Barr 1717, Baldwin 1692, Write-in 2785
OR-5: Obama 192355, McCain 154488, Nader 3395, McKinney 794, Barr 1448, Baldwin 1388, Write-in 2672

OR-1: Obama 61.04%, McCain 36.27% (D+24.07)
OR-2: McCain 53.86%, Obama 43.21% (R+10.65)
OR-3: Obama 71.42%, McCain 25.79% (D+45.63)
OR-4: Obama 53.79%, McCain 43.08% (D+10.71)
OR-5: Obama 53.95%, McCain 43.33% (D+10.62)

Edit: Corrected for insidious error that lumped Multnomah County's OR-5 returns with OR-3.
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