Oregon: PacNW Domination Thread Part II

[Alcon]

Because I was tired of clogging up early voting.  General Oregon thread!

Let's start where I veered off-course:

OREGON -- While this won't hold up or anything, the breakdown of returned ballots so far says a lot.



(edit: flipped benton and polk. grahh)

So far, Democrats have 62% of the two-party ballot returns in Oregon.  In 2004, the final number was 52%.

Some pretty impressive numbers here -- 68% in Benton (Corvallis), 59% in Clackamas (southern Portland suburbs/Bush county), 54% in Jackson (Medford), 80% in Multnomah (Portland), 62% in Washington (west 'burbs).

Again:  Some ancestral voting in the East, and the gap should go down, but still, shows where the enthusiasm is at.  GOP turnout in Oregon is almost universally higher.

Curiosity calculation:  Using SUSA's partisan break-downs to extrapolate this ridiculously, Obama leads turned-in ballots 60%-37%, and gives the following patently ridiculous map.



(edit: flipped douglas and lane.  supergrahh.)

For Democratic salivary glands only.  Even if Obama won by 23 points (lol) it would look nothing like this, with heavier ditro to Multnoco, where indys outnumber Republicans.

Alcon, thanks gain for an awesome contribution.

This map is interesting, although as we both know Obama will most likely only win Oregon by 13-15 points.

In that event, I think that the colors of the top map look correct except McCain will win Linn and maybe Coos and Yamhill counties (I am operating on the assumption that Douglas and Lane are flipped in your initial map). I think that there is a decent chance that Obama will carry Curry (older, wealthier California residents), and possibly Union and Crook Counties. Josephine is still a long shot, although long-term demographic changes favor the Democrats. Jefferson county should go Obama with this type of margin.

[Alcon]

Alcon, thanks gain for an awesome contribution.

This map is interesting, although as we both know Obama will most likely only win Oregon by 13-15 points.

In that event, I think that the colors of the top map look correct except McCain will win Linn and maybe Coos and Yamhill counties (I am operating on the assumption that Douglas and Lane are flipped in your initial map). I think that there is a decent chance that Obama will carry Curry (older, wealthier California residents), and possibly Union and Crook Counties. Josephine is still a long shot, although long-term demographic changes favor the Democrats. Jefferson county should go Obama with this type of margin.

I did a primary-based model.  The results are here.  There's some, um, oddities such as Obama falling in Hood River.  That seems unlikely.  I forget what was close.  McCain won Curry by double-digits in my model, but I dunno.  Deschutes was quite close.  Union and Crook are tough nuts to crack.  I'll definitely be watching you guys very closely on election night.  I would never, ever have seen this race been approaching +15 in Oregon.  Obama has gotten a pretty incredible chunk of persuadables in the state.

Pretty much every model I run has Jackson flipping, which in itself is impressive.  All have Clackamas, Tillamook and Wasco.  Coos is in most, as are Marion.  A sizable minority have Linn, Polk and Yamhill.  Blanking on any others atm...

I don't think any had Jefferson, though, but Madras is so beyond my knowledge, and the scope of the models.  It's a confusing place for me (Crook County too)

No question Obama wins Hood River by at least 10 points....

Clackamas, Tillamook, Marion, and Wasco, and Polk are gone without question, although McCain should fall within a 5-8 point margin.

I feel more concerned about Jackson and Coos counties, although demographic changes in the Medford area tend to favor Dems at the national level. Coos is one of those blue-collar historic timber Dem counties (I believe they went for Mondale in '84) where there might be a bit of reversal from the past few cycles where there was a backlash against the national ticket for perceived excesses on national resource issues and guns. Curry county is a slight long shot, but Southern Oregon is changing, and the socially liberal retiree vote may well swing towards Obama.

Eastern Oregon is interesting, and I have gone out on a limb before predicting a few of these counties. Deschutes is extremely wealthy with many California retirees, but don't forget that this is a county that went with the change message of Lonsdale in the Senate race in '90. Jefferson county has a large Latino population, a Native American population, and wealthy Anglo tourist sector. Union county gave 47% to Dukakis in '88, and I suspect with the student vote that Obama may well carry this county.

[Alcon]

I hastily re-made my Oregon model so I could get more exacted details.  This is the most conservative form.  My other models are sometimes "hot spot models" -- that is, they're meant to exaggerate certain effects to see which counties would swing more under what circumstances.

This is a more standard model, based primarily on 2008 Primary results.  It's the closest I could remember to what I used for the map provided.  This is Obama +14.  Dem margin swing in parentheses.

Baker: McCain +21 (+19)
Benton: Obama +29 (+11)
Clackamas: Obama +10 (+11)
Clatsop: Obama +19 (+9)
Columbia: Obama +19 (+16)
Coos: Obama +5 (+16)
Crook: McCain +21 (+17)
Curry: McCain +12 (+5)
Deschutes: McCain +3 (+11)
Douglas: McCain +17 (+15)
Gilliam: McCain +16 (+18)
Grant: McCain +30 (+29)
Harney: McCain +38 (+15)
Hood River: Obama +14 (-1)
Jackson: Obama +3 (+15)
Jefferson: McCain +12 (+7)
Josephine: McCain +13 (+13)
Klamath: McCain +30 (+16)
Lake: McCain +39 (+18)
Lane: Obama +24 (+6)
Lincoln: Obama +17 (+2)
Linn: McCain +3 (+19)
Malheur: McCain +36 (+15)
Marion: McCain +2 (+7)
Morrow: McCain +16 (+17)
Multnomah: Obama +51 (+7)
Polk: McCain +4 (+7)
Sherman: McCain +26 (+1)
Tillamook: Obama +7 (+9)
Umatilla: McCain +16 (+15)
Union: McCain +18 (+15)
Wallowa: McCain +25 (+16)
Wasco: Obama +6 (+9)
Washington: Obama +16 (+10)
Wheeler: McCain +19 (+23)
Yamhill: McCain +4 (+11)
OREGON: Obama +14 (+10)

Comments welcome -- probably a few oddities (Hood River is real screwy), but eh.  It was the most realistic result I could get through objective means. 

Note: Despite my best efforts, the model punishes places heavy on Obama-voting independents (and lapsed Republicans.)  This probably damages counties like Washington and Hood River, and oddly should damage Multnomah, but it doesn't show it.  Virtually every model I've run has Obama excelling in Multnomah; he did very well in the primary there in every respect.  It also helps that very low GOP registration punishes McCain.

[Alcon]

The Multnomah number seems a little crazy to me, too.  If only you guys had an open primary, this would be leagues easier.  I agree with nearly everything you said.  I'm still not 100% sold on the competitiveness of some of the counties you mentioned, but with some Multco support leaking -- I can see it.

I also think my model overballed a few other counties (Benton, Clackamas maybe, Linn almost certainly).  And then there are all of those darn ancetral registrations in the East, but they're limited to only a few counties.

My dream model would:

1. Further underball Obama slightly in counties with low Dem turnout vs. GOP turnout in 2004 (generally a good indicator of ancestral registrations)

2. Handle independent voters who couldn't vote in the primary...somehow.

3. Make some kind of regression involving Clinton voters, because they aren't gonna vote the same way in Multnomah as in Morrow

4. Maybe figure out a way to deal with places like Washington, where the ancestral registrations are starting to go the other way

5. Maybe do something about the laundry I skipped in order to write these models ()

[Alcon]

Hm, well, bump.

Overall, the model fared OK.  The biggest misses were pretty obvious weird results -- parts of Eastern Oregon, Hood River County.  Overall, it seemed to over-estimate Obama among downscale, culturally conservative oldschool Democrats and under-estimate him in the suburbs.  Then again, isn't that pretty much what happened everywhere?

(I knew Hood River looked ridiculous.  lol.)

Table


Map


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So far, the only precinct results I have are preliminary ones for Polk County.  Since I'm bored, I'm posting them:

102 Ballston & Spring Valley: McCain +12 (was Bush +20) +8%
106 Perrydale & Buell:  McCain +12 (was Bush +23) +11%
110 Grand Ronde & Willamina: Obama +7 (was Bush +1) +8%
118 Rural Salem & Monmouth: McCain +8 (was Bush +15) +7%
122 Rural Independence: McCain +21 (was Bush +19) +2%
134 Salem City: Obama +1 (was Bush +10) +11%
144 Salem City: Obama +7 (was Bush +5) +12%
146 Salem City: Obama +5 (was Bush +7) +12%
152 Rural Dallas: McCain +17 (was Bush +25) +8%
154 Dallas City: McCain +7 (was Bush +17) +10%
162 Dallas City: McCain +5 (was Bush +19) +14%
166 Falls City & Surrounding: Obama +11 (was Kerry +8) +3%
178 Monmouth City: Obama +12 (was Kerry +2) +10%
182 Independence City: Obama +12 (was Bush +2) +14%

That's pretty boring from what I see, but I figure it might interest you as a local   Maybe you can gleam something out of Polk I couldn't.  (Other than the apparent lack of WOU electoral power.  Independence had a bigger swing than Monmouth?)

[Alcon]

I actually underestimated Obama in Multnomah and Washington, and nailed Clackamas (which surprised me)

I just got the Polk results from the web site.  It's a bit too early for me to begin to harass county clerks.

[Alcon]

Clatsop?

...?

[Alcon]

(Do you have details for)

Polk's all I've got.  It may be a week or two before counties release precinct information.  They may have a scattering of votes to add on to the final.

Will post 'em when I get 'em

[Alcon]

(Do you have details for)

Clatsop:

Astoria: 65-32 Obama (was 62-36)
Cannon Beach: 71-28 Obama (was 64-35)
Gearhart: 61-38 Obama (was 58-41)
Seaside: 61-36 Obama (was 57-41)
Warrenton: 49-49 McCain (was 47-52)

Rural: 53-44 Obama (was 48-50)

[Alcon]

Multnomah County, Ore.
New style:



Atlas style:

[Alcon]

What bist the key to the fust map [qm].

Same as here

[Alcon]

If this isn't a stunning sign of the GOP's collapse in the Portland suburbs, I don't know what is:

Code:

          0352 352 BEAVERTON-CENTER

          United States President and Vice President
          Vote For  1
           Ralph Nader (PCE).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      6    1.00
           Cynthia McKinney (PAC) .  .  .  .  .  .  .      2     .33
           John McCain (REP).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    127   21.13
           Bob Barr (LIB).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      8    1.33
           Chuck Baldwin (CON) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      2     .33
           Barack Obama (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    450   74.88
           WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      6    1.00
              Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      0
             Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      3

Those sorts of numbers were replicated a number of places throughout the greater Beaverton area.  A few were even worse for McCain.

[Alcon]

I'll need a GIS shapefile of Washington County.  I'll give them a try soon, but they may try to charge ridiculously.  It tends to be either free or that way.  I don't see the precinct file in their catalog.

Looking through Obama's performances: 80-16 Obama at Cedar Hils, 77-21 Obama at Sunset Cooridor (?!), 75-23 at Montclair, winning Cooper Mountain...

Basically it looks like Obama won every subdivision precinct in the county, and the only places McCain won were rural or, in a few rare cases, exurban (he barely won the McMansion sprawl part of Cooper Mountain.)  I'd really be interested in a map; it looks like the urban part of Washington County essentially Portlandified into solid red.  The only interruptions will probably be narrow McCain wins in Oregon City.

[Alcon]

City of Ashland
Barack Obama 10,633 (83.55%)
John McCain 1,766 (13.88%)
Ralph Nader 112 (0.88%)
Write-ins 82 (0.64%)
Cynthia McKinney 61 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 40 (0.31%)
Bob Barr 33 (0.26%)

Impressive.  84.09%-13.97% without write-ins.  Will be a close run with Seattle (Ashland was barely more Dem in '04)

[Alcon]

Obama did win Jackson County, actually, by 47 votes.

[Alcon]

My bad, by the way, Ashland was Kerry +61.56 and Seattle was Kerry +62.72.  So, I was wrong.

Once I get a few checks out, I think I'll be able to post the statewide precinct file.

[Alcon]

City of Ashland
Barack Obama 10,633 (83.55%)
John McCain 1,766 (13.88%)
Ralph Nader 112 (0.88%)
Write-ins 82 (0.64%)
Cynthia McKinney 61 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 40 (0.31%)
Bob Barr 33 (0.26%)

Impressive.  84.09%-13.97% without write-ins.  Will be a close run with Seattle (Ashland was barely more Dem in '04)

Ashland is a FF city. Wouldn't guess it if you just drove by it on the freeway. How was the swing in Medford and the Rogue valley as compared to the county?

Medford was 59-40 Bush in '04, so the swing there was pretty healthy.

Honestly I'm not 100% sure offhand where the Rogue River Valley lies relative to the precincts, but swing across the county looked pretty steady.  Butte Falls and Eagle Point were both R>70 in '04, for instance.

[Alcon]

Thanks!

I actually did some fiddling the other day with municipal results.  Oregon is awful with split districts and municipalities.  Washington County, refreshingly, isn't.  So I got these results for the Portland municipal area (* indicates some splitting).  Obama won every municipality.

Beaverton: 65-32 Obama (57-42)
Durham: 62-37 Obama (53-46)
Fairview: 60-38 Obama (56-43)
Gladstone: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Gresham: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Happy Valley: 50-49 Obama (41-58)
Hillsboro: 59-38 Obama (50-48)
Johnson City: 58-37 Obama (52-45)
King City: 57-41 Obama (54-45)
Lake Oswego: 63-35 Obama (56-43)
Maywood Park: 66-31 Obama (63-36)
Milwaukie: 65-32 Obama (61-38)
Oregon City: 54-43 Obama (49-50)
Portland: 81-17 Obama (76-23)
Rivergrove*: 66-33 Obama (59-40)
Sherwood: 51-47 Obama (41-58)
Tigard: 60-38 Obama (53-46)
Troutdale*: 55-42 Obama (50-49)
Tualatin: 57-41 Obama (48-51)
West Linn: 59-39 Obama (52-47)
Wilsonville: 52-46 Obama (45-54)
Wood Village: 62-34 Obama (55-44)

I've included results (excluding Washington County, which I have too little data for) from 2004 in parentheses.  Portland is a corrected number from 80-17 -- apparently the Portland Golf Club precinct in Washington County isn't in Portland.

But, anyway, every city in the metro Portland area voted Obama.

As for the rest...I'm forwarding the check-writing request off tonight.  So far I have: Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Umatilla and Washington.  I should be able to add a bunch more to that list shortly.

Anything I can provide in the meantime? 

Edit: Found Washington County for '04.

[Alcon]

I sent money in for all but missing counties but Wasco ($40, pending).  That means Baker, Coos, Curry, Deschutes, Josephine, Malheur, Tillamook and Wallowa.

Incorporation data all in.  Adding CD info.

Fixed a few data errors in Hood River (zeroed Nader in one precinct); Jackson (McCain -1 in one precinct); Linn (screwed up columns, major third party fixes); and Yamhill (fixed write-ins in two places).

Someone at Portland Metro GIS is going to send me a precinct map of the entire metro area.  Should have that up in a while.

[Alcon]

Oregon congressional results:

OR-1 (Wuu [D])
Includes the counties of Washington [NW Portland suburbs]; Clatsop [Astoria]; Columbia [St. Helens and other mill/neo-commuter towns]; and extreme southwestern Multnomah County, including parts of Portland.

Obama +24.77%

Barack Obama 228,817 (61.04%)
John McCain 135,975 (36.27%)
Ralph Nader 3,423
Cynthia McKinney 743
Bob Barr 1,758
Chuck Baldwin 1,516
Write-ins 2,646

OR-3 (Blumenauer [D])
Includes the bulk of Multnomah County, including most of Portland, and all of Gresham and Troutdale, stretching to the heavily-forested west.  Also includes a small portion of suburban Clackamas County (Milwaukie), and some rural areas to the west and southwest, eventually stretching to Mt. Hood.

Obama +46.12%

Barack Obama 273,952 (71.68%)
John McCain 97,688 (25.56%)
Ralph Nader 4,404
Cynthia McKinney 1,176
Bob Barr 1,254
Chuck Baldwin 1,082
Write-in 2,608

OR-5 (Schrader [D])
Includes the counties of Tillamook (like the cheese); Lincoln (Pacific beach towns); Polk (Dallas); Marion (Salem, the state cap, and its myriad exurbs); as well as portions of Benton County around the northern part of Corvallis (OSU); suburban parts of Clackamas (West Linn, Lake Oswego); and the exurban/rural southern half of Clackamas.

Obama +8.21%

Barack Obama 178,531 (52.73%)
John McCain 150,731 (44.52%)
Ralph Nader 3,228
Cynthia McKinney 831
Bob Barr 1,381
Chuck Baldwin 1,361
Write-in 2,516

OR-2 & OR-5
Pending Josephine County.  OR-2 contains the core of the Grants Pass area.  OR-5 contains everything else.

Without that county, McCain leads OR-2 by a margin of 53.65% to 43.48% (McCain +10.17%); and trails OR-4 by a margin of 54.17% to 42.77% (Obama +11.40%).

[Alcon]

Thanks for your comments.  Senate map tomorrow, time inevitably permitting.  This format is very easy to make maps with -- their shapefile's lines are ordered by county, and then precinct #, with no repeats, just like my spreadsheet!  I'm happy to do any requests, if there are any interesting obscuro races I'm missing.

[Alcon]

OR-1: Obama 228817, McCain 135975, Nader 3423, McKinney 743, Barr 1758, Baldwin 1516, Write-in 2646
OR-2: Obama 154848, McCain 193002, Nader 3454, McKinney 1340, Barr 1596, Baldwin 1971, Write-in 2112
OR-3: Obama 260128, McCain 93931, Nader 4237, McKinney 1143, Barr 1186, Baldwin 1056, Write-in 2522
OR-4: Obama 201143, McCain 161079, Nader 4105, McKinney 1399, Barr 1717, Baldwin 1692, Write-in 2785
OR-5: Obama 192355, McCain 154488, Nader 3395, McKinney 794, Barr 1448, Baldwin 1388, Write-in 2672

OR-1: Obama 61.04%, McCain 36.27% (D+24.07)
OR-2: McCain 53.86%, Obama 43.21% (R+10.65)
OR-3: Obama 71.42%, McCain 25.79% (D+45.63)
OR-4: Obama 53.79%, McCain 43.08% (D+10.71)
OR-5: Obama 53.95%, McCain 43.33% (D+10.62)

Edit: Corrected for insidious error that lumped Multnomah County's OR-5 returns with OR-3.