Oregon: PacNW Domination Thread Part II

[Sbane]

It is interesting that your model was pretty much dead on in Curry county even though it overestimated Obama among the white working class. Curry county first caught my eye due to its small swing towards Obama. Why would all the other counties around it swing more than it?

[Sbane]

It is interesting that your model was pretty much dead on in Curry county even though it overestimated Obama among the white working class. Curry county first caught my eye due to its small swing towards Obama. Why would all the other counties around it swing more than it?

Curry county has a large number of wealthy California retirees, whom I thought would swing to Obama by a greater margin. Note that Obama almost won Deschutes county that has a similar high proportion of California retirees (although lower Senior population).

Not sure about the White working class reference.

Hmm but like you said there are lots of retirees in Medford and Bend, yet those areas swung more than Curry. I guess it could just be an influx of only people from conservative areas or something weird like that, although I doubt it. Is Curry county more expensive than Medford and Bend? That might cause only wealthy retirees choosing that area.

[Sbane]

City of Ashland
Barack Obama 10,633 (83.55%)
John McCain 1,766 (13.88%)
Ralph Nader 112 (0.88%)
Write-ins 82 (0.64%)
Cynthia McKinney 61 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 40 (0.31%)
Bob Barr 33 (0.26%)

Impressive.  84.09%-13.97% without write-ins.  Will be a close run with Seattle (Ashland was barely more Dem in '04)

Ashland is a FF city. Wouldn't guess it if you just drove by it on the freeway. How was the swing in Medford and the Rogue valley as compared to the county?