Oregon: PacNW Domination Thread Part II

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for the PM! I am a little reluctant to make exact predictions considering that I was a bit conservative in my model during the primaries, but here goes....

Crook county went 47% for Dukakis, and there is a decent population now that commutes to metro Bend, as well as a tourist base that tends to favor Obama.... I consider this county as  a likely flip with Obama +14-15.

Curry county, like Deschutes (Bend) is highly variable depending on the leanings of wealthy California independent retirees... potential Obama narrow flip.

Deschutes county... I really think this might be the first Presidential election where a Democrat might have a chance of winning this socially liberal, fiscally conservative, out of state retiree region. Maybe more of a hunch than anything else.

Douglas county will probably give at least 43-44% to Obama, although nowhere near as close as Dukakis got in'88, the days of the downstate timber voting bloc at the Presidential level is over.

Jackson, I agree is a likely narrow flip for Obama.

Jefferson is an area highly dependent on tourism with a large NA and Latino population which has historically done well for Democrats... this county will flip in a 15 point election.

Linn... this county is right next door from mine, and despite decent Obama numbers in Albany, there are simply way to many voters in the small town and rural areas that identify with the Republican message for Obama to carry this county.

Marion... has historically been a slight Republican leaning county, but the city of Salem has been trending Democratic the past few cycles... Rural parts of the county are not sufficient for McCain to eke out a win.

Multnomah... will go heavily Dem as always, but I think Obama's ceiling is 75-77% here, which would a record number for a Dem. This explains some of the extra Democratic votes in other counties I have mentioned.

Polk Co... between WOSU and the Salem exurbs Obama should get at least 48% here... I personally think that with current trends and the Latino population that Obama will most likely narrowly beat McCain here.

Tillamook will be close, your 7 point margin might be slightly exaggerated or might well be dead on... too close to call.

Union Co will be much closer than your model anticipates... La Grande is the most liberal city in Eastern Oregon (unless you include Bend) and the university vote here should help. Don't forget this is a county that almost went for Dukakis in '88.

Yamhill... probably about right, but the exurban Portland population will keep it a marginal McCain county, unlike Polk which might well flip.

I have other observations, but I don't want to nit-pick each county... don't forget I got slammed in the primaries for underestimating Obama support, particularly downstate.

[NOVA Green]

Assuming MultCo is 75-25 or 77-23 (rather than the 80% model with is way too high), and Obama wins statewide 13-15%, then I would say that Marion, Polk,  and Jefferson flip.

With regards to the other counties: there is a very good chance that Deschutes, Crook and maybe Curry and Union flip.

Benton county will most likely go Obama +25, although don't forget that West Albany will keep county margins down, plus the fact that the vaunted youth turnout hasn't yet materialized anywhere nationally.

I'm not convinced that you are lowballing Linn county... this is a tough nut to crack in the extremely polarized Oregon electorate.

Your model has much to go for it... although the points you make in your "dream model" are pretty much all valid. Not sure about the laundry situation however

[NOVA Green]

It is interesting that your model was pretty much dead on in Curry county even though it overestimated Obama among the white working class. Curry county first caught my eye due to its small swing towards Obama. Why would all the other counties around it swing more than it?

Curry county has a large number of wealthy California retirees, whom I thought would swing to Obama by a greater margin. Note that Obama almost won Deschutes county that has a similar high proportion of California retirees (although lower Senior population).

Not sure about the White working class reference.

[NOVA Green]

Hm, well, bump.

Overall, the model fared OK.  The biggest misses were pretty obvious weird results -- parts of Eastern Oregon, Hood River County.  Overall, it seemed to over-estimate Obama among downscale, culturally conservative oldschool Democrats and under-estimate him in the suburbs.  Then again, isn't that pretty much what happened everywhere?

(I knew Hood River looked ridiculous.  lol.)

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So far, the only precinct results I have are preliminary ones for Polk County.  Since I'm bored, I'm posting them:

102 Ballston & Spring Valley: McCain +12 (was Bush +20) +8%
106 Perrydale & Buell:  McCain +12 (was Bush +23) +11%
110 Grand Ronde & Willamina: Obama +7 (was Bush +1) +8%
118 Rural Salem & Monmouth: McCain +8 (was Bush +15) +7%
122 Rural Independence: McCain +21 (was Bush +19) +2%
134 Salem City: Obama +1 (was Bush +10) +11%
144 Salem City: Obama +7 (was Bush +5) +12%
146 Salem City: Obama +5 (was Bush +7) +12%
152 Rural Dallas: McCain +17 (was Bush +25) +8%
154 Dallas City: McCain +7 (was Bush +17) +10%
162 Dallas City: McCain +5 (was Bush +19) +14%
166 Falls City & Surrounding: Obama +11 (was Kerry +8) +3%
178 Monmouth City: Obama +12 (was Kerry +2) +10%
182 Independence City: Obama +12 (was Bush +2) +14%

That's pretty boring from what I see, but I figure it might interest you as a local   Maybe you can gleam something out of Polk I couldn't.  (Other than the apparent lack of WOU electoral power.  Independence had a bigger swing than Monmouth?)

Thanks Alcon...

I overestimated Obama performance in Eastern Oregon based on both primary performance, plus historically how Union, Crook, and Jefferson counties have performed with Liberal Democrats.

BTW: Your model was almost dead-on in metro Portland, slightly high in Clackamas, but slightly over in Portland.... 77% Multnomah? WTF? Washington 60%?

Thx for the Polk Co precinct reports, much appreciated!!!! Did you get them from the SoS or county election division?

[NOVA Green]

Hm, well, bump.

Overall, the model fared OK.  The biggest misses were pretty obvious weird results -- parts of Eastern Oregon, Hood River County.  Overall, it seemed to over-estimate Obama among downscale, culturally conservative oldschool Democrats and under-estimate him in the suburbs.  Then again, isn't that pretty much what happened everywhere?

(I knew Hood River looked ridiculous.  lol.)

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So far, the only precinct results I have are preliminary ones for Polk County.  Since I'm bored, I'm posting them:

102 Ballston & Spring Valley: McCain +12 (was Bush +20) +8%
106 Perrydale & Buell:  McCain +12 (was Bush +23) +11%
110 Grand Ronde & Willamina: Obama +7 (was Bush +1) +8%
118 Rural Salem & Monmouth: McCain +8 (was Bush +15) +7%
122 Rural Independence: McCain +21 (was Bush +19) +2%
134 Salem City: Obama +1 (was Bush +10) +11%
144 Salem City: Obama +7 (was Bush +5) +12%
146 Salem City: Obama +5 (was Bush +7) +12%
152 Rural Dallas: McCain +17 (was Bush +25) +8%
154 Dallas City: McCain +7 (was Bush +17) +10%
162 Dallas City: McCain +5 (was Bush +19) +14%
166 Falls City & Surrounding: Obama +11 (was Kerry +8) +3%
178 Monmouth City: Obama +12 (was Kerry +2) +10%
182 Independence City: Obama +12 (was Bush +2) +14%

That's pretty boring from what I see, but I figure it might interest you as a local   Maybe you can gleam something out of Polk I couldn't.  (Other than the apparent lack of WOU electoral power.  Independence had a bigger swing than Monmouth?)

It is actually interesting...

West Salem is fairly conservative with a large number of retirees... Obama win significant and it helps explain Marion county to a small degree

Grande Ronde is partially an Indian reservation with a casino...

Dallas is the most conservative city in the county, decent former timber industry.

Fall City- outlaw country. Large number of counterculture and White rednecks and evangelicals.

Monmouth--- Western Oregon State University, as well as small HP commute population and some state workers in Salem

Indepdence-- decent Latino population

[NOVA Green]

If this isn't a stunning sign of the GOP's collapse in the Portland suburbs, I don't know what is:

Code:

          0352 352 BEAVERTON-CENTER

          United States President and Vice President
          Vote For  1
           Ralph Nader (PCE).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      6    1.00
           Cynthia McKinney (PAC) .  .  .  .  .  .  .      2     .33
           John McCain (REP).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    127   21.13
           Bob Barr (LIB).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      8    1.33
           Chuck Baldwin (CON) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      2     .33
           Barack Obama (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    450   74.88
           WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      6    1.00
              Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      0
             Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      3

Those sorts of numbers were replicated a number of places throughout the greater Beaverton area.  A few were even worse for McCain.

Holy Cow!

I wonder how much of this has to do with Latino support for Obama, since this area has a large immigrant population....

I have friends that live in central Beaverton, not too far from the Beaverton downtown mall. Heavily Latino, as well as a decent proportion of younger Whites and African-Americans. A Washington County map would be interesting if possible.

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if you have this link... looks like a pain to navigate since there are multiple maps of precincts for WashCo:

http://www.co.washington.or.us/deptmts/at/election/precinct/quadmaps.htm

[NOVA Green]

OK--- here is a compilation of the precinct returns from Benton County.

Corvallis city-  6845 (25.5%) -20,008 (74.5%) Obama won convincingly in all precincts, including a 78-22 win on the exclusive OSU precincts, 71-29 in the most blue-collar region of the city (South Corvallis) where historically anti-gay and abortion related ballot initiatives have almost passed since the '80s. (I threw out my precinct returns from the '80s and early '90s about 10 years ago when I moved making it hard to compare on top of precinct boundary changes) 

Benton County- (outside of the city of Corvallis) 8419-9863 (46-54%) McCain-Obama

Corvallis rural- ( middle and upper-middle-class homeowners and Corvallis commuters) 61-39% Obama

Philomath (historic mill town turned Corvallis bedroom community) 56-44% Obama

West Albany- (suburban West Albany, wealthy suburban and exurban historically heavily Republican Region) 53-47% McCain

West Albany rural (wealthy exurban)--- 60-40% McCain

Adair City (working-class commuter village) 55-45% McCain

Monroe (blue-collar semi-rural population center) 53-47% Obama

Alsea- (Rural Benton Co, large Christian Conservative + timber population) 54-46% McCain

Kings Valley/Wren+ Alpine (Rural timber, counter-culture, and agricultural precincts)- 52-48% Obama.

Interesting observations: Obama exceeded every single Democratic margin in the city of Corvallis and the student precincts ever. Don't forget the city only went 53-47 for Mondale in'84. Student precincts went for Reagan by a decent margin (even better if you include the old "frat row" precinct 23 from the '80s that went 60-40 Reagan in'84.

West Albany has historically been the most Republican part of the county going 60-40% for the Republican nominee and 70-30 in the late '80s. It only narrowly went for McCain this election (makes me want to look at Albany proper more closely this time around).

Wealthy suburban and exurban Corvallis precincts went overwhelmingly for Obama, despite the fact they are the wealthiest parts of the county (excepting West Albany perhaps)

Rural and blue-collar commuting areas of the county had a mixed record, with Adair Village over-performing for the Republicans, with Obama doing quite well in the SW part of the county and the former mill town of Philomath (although there are still two active mills in the area).

[NOVA Green]

That's mill as in saw mill, right [qm]

Yes... lumber mill, saw mill, plywood mill

Not too much other heavy industry in this county, unless you include high-tech (Hewlett-Packard).

[NOVA Green]

OK---- I have spent a little time looking through the Lane Co, Oregon precinct returns:

Eugene City--- 21,200-70,000 (Obama)  26-74% (Obama)
Springfield City--- 9,200-14,100 (Obama), 40-60% (Obama)
Eugene Springfield Metro Other--- 6,000-9,800 (Obama), 38-62% (Obama)

Small Town LaneCo  9,100- 9,700 (Obama), 48-52% (Obama)
Rural LaneCo  19,900-20,900 (Obama), 49-51% (Obama)

Note that several of these "rural" precincts may actually be part of metro as it can be hard to draw a fine line with exurban development, but the overall numbers should be representative since Oregon's zoning laws make it difficult to have development outside of designated urban-growth boundaries.

Cottage Grove- Smaller mill town, increasing number of Eugene transplants 48-52% Obama
Florence- Wealthy retirees, tourist coastal town 45-55% Obama
Oakridge- Older mill town in the cascades  43-57% Obama
Junction City- agricultural, several active timber mills  52-48% McCain

[NOVA Green]

Marion County




Salem: 57-40 Obama
Woodburn: 54-44 Obama

Thanks Alcon!

[NOVA Green]

Jackson County




Ashland: 84-14 Obama
Butte Falls: 62-34 McCain
Central Point: 60-37 McCain
Eagle Point: 63-34 McCain
Gold Hill: 52-46 McCain
Jacksonville: 50-47 McCain
Medford: 51-46 McCain
Phoenix: 52-45 Obama
Rogue River: 56-40 McCain
Shady Cove: 58-38 McCain
Talent: 64-33 Obama
Unincorporated: 55-42 McCain

Impressive swing in Talent -- it seems to be gradually turning into an Ashland satellite town (Phoenix too, to a much lesser extent)

I am still amazed that Obama came close to winning Jackson Co with results like these....

This looks like a potentially winning combo for Dems at the county level. Losing Medford by <5, winning Ashland by 4-1, and winning Talent/Phoenix by 5-10 point margins.

The interesting thing here is that the Democratic stronghold of Ashland is one of slowest growing communities in the county as a result of strong land-use planning and zoning laws that are strongest in liberal communities around the state. Despite the low rate of population growth Democrats in one smaller city are almost able to win this county with one of the most rapid increases in land value.

[NOVA Green]

Obama did win Jackson County, actually, by 47 votes.

Holy crap!

I double checked the SoS results, but you are absolutely correct.

This is huge, although Obama did narrowly lose Deschutes, unlike a prediction i made a few months back.

Regardless this is significant in terms of Dem trend in fast growing counties outside of Metro-
Portland which is a potentially bad sign for future Republican candidates at the state and Federal level.

[NOVA Green]

My bad, by the way, Ashland was Kerry +61.56 and Seattle was Kerry +62.72.  So, I was wrong.

Once I get a few checks out, I think I'll be able to post the statewide precinct file.

Pleeze do!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Multnomah County, Ore.
New style:



Atlas style:

Multnomah County Precincts Only

Portland- 80-17 Obama

(West Portland)  81-16 Obama
(North Portland) 82-15 Obama
(Northeast Portland) 86-11 Obama
(Southeast Portland) 83-14 Obama
(East Portland) 64-32 Obama

Unincorporated County- 57-40 Obama
Lake Oswego 69-28 Obama
Maywood Park 66-31 Obama
Fairview 59-38 Obama
Troutdale 54-42 Obama
Wood Village 62-34 Obama
Gresham 57-40 Obama

[NOVA Green]

Alcon,

Any update on the Oregon precinct results project yet? 

I have an incomplete set and am still missing the "pay counties"....

If you have additional data sets to share that would be most appreciated.   


I hope everything is going well with your school / career search!

[NOVA Green]

Thanks!

I actually did some fiddling the other day with municipal results.  Oregon is awful with split districts and municipalities.  Washington County, refreshingly, isn't.  So I got these results for the Portland municipal area (* indicates some splitting).  Obama won every municipality.

Beaverton: 65-32 Obama (57-42)
Durham: 62-37 Obama (53-46)
Fairview: 60-38 Obama (56-43)
Gladstone: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Gresham: 56-41 Obama (52-47)
Happy Valley: 50-49 Obama (41-58)
Hillsboro: 59-38 Obama (50-48)
Johnson City: 58-37 Obama (52-45)
King City: 57-41 Obama (54-45)
Lake Oswego: 63-35 Obama (56-43)
Maywood Park: 66-31 Obama (63-36)
Milwaukie: 65-32 Obama (61-38)
Oregon City: 54-43 Obama (49-50)
Portland: 81-17 Obama (76-23)
Rivergrove*: 66-33 Obama (59-40)
Sherwood: 51-47 Obama (41-58)
Tigard: 60-38 Obama (53-46)
Troutdale*: 55-42 Obama (50-49)
Tualatin: 57-41 Obama (48-51)
West Linn: 59-39 Obama (52-47)
Wilsonville: 52-46 Obama (45-54)
Wood Village: 62-34 Obama (55-44)

I've included results (excluding Washington County, which I have too little data for) from 2004 in parentheses.  Portland is a corrected number from 80-17 -- apparently the Portland Golf Club precinct in Washington County isn't in Portland.

But, anyway, every city in the metro Portland area voted Obama.

As for the rest...I'm forwarding the check-writing request off tonight.  So far I have: Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lane, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Umatilla and Washington.  I should be able to add a bunch more to that list shortly.

Anything I can provide in the meantime? 

Edit: Found Washington County for '04.

OK--- I have all of the county returns above except: Harney, Hood River, Klamath, Linn, and Umatilla.

The only ones on that list that you do not have listed are Douglas and Yamhill Counties, which I have a copy of and have converted to Excel.

City results not listed:

Canby (Exurban Portland): 46-52 McCain
Clackamas Unincorporated (Urban/Suburban) 59-38 Obama
Washington Co Unincorporated (Urban/suburban) 62-35 Obama
Newburg (Exburban Portland- Yamhill County) 46-51 McCain

I have city results for other municipalities on the counties that we both have results for....

[NOVA Green]

Portland metro (Counties of Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington)





Pretty map.

Nice maps for sure... Thanks Alcon!

What is most visually apparent is how little support the Reps currently have within the metro area...  Looking at where population densities are located, there are few pockets of Republican support left. Wilsonville flipped Dem '08, and the largest municipality I could find in Clackamas that backed McCain was Damascus (that splotch of blue in the North-Central area that is relatively small ex-urban, and Canby, which is arguable how much a part of Metro it is.

Washington county has few precinct wins of large population centers.... McCain's largest precinct he won was the rural NW of the county with 1800 voters by a margin of 52-44. The largest urban precinct (one of only two metro counties in Washington County that went Rep) he won was in Tualatin by only 12 votes, and one in Tigard by 1 vote!

Not too sure about that splotch of red in the SW corner of Washington Co.... community is supposedly "Cherry Grove" where a Swedish immigrant founded a lumber mill, although the only real period the industry prospered here was for a few decades after the Tillamook forest fire. Although fruit orchards have also been referenced, and this would be an area with a decent Latino population.

I count only three precincts in Multnomah that McCain won, the only one of decent population being #5604, which is essentially on the SE edge of Gresham and halfway to Boring, Oregon.

Republicans cannot expect to win Oregon at the national level with such an atrocious performance in all of Metro Portland...

If you were to contrast this with a precinct map versus Smith, it would be a very different color scheme, even in key suburban cities indeed! And remember of course that Smith still lost by almost 4 points...