Obama has won the last 69 national polls

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

According to RCP.  Sept. 21 is the last time McCain led in any poll.  Last time McCain won a national poll outside the MoE was Sept. 7th, back when Palin was fresh, young, hot, and no one knew she didn't know what the Bush Doctrine was.

Meanwhile, Obama consistently polls +7, +6, +5, +5, +10, +6...  It's looking more and more like a 52-46 outcome on Nov. 4, which probably translates into 364 EVs for Obama at least.

If McCain wins, it would be absolutely stunning, and we'd probably have to completely reinvent polling between now and 2012.

[ucscgaldamez]

I predict  a 51-48% win for Obama. If he reaches 52% that's a landslide( electorally) and I agree he would likely carry most of all the tossup states.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I predict  a 51-48% win for Obama. If he reaches 52% that's a landslide( electorally) and I agree he would likely carry most of all the tossup states.

I think I agree.  The polls are saying 52-46 or 52-47, but things will tighten up, as they always do.

[ucscgaldamez]

I was looking at the events that McCain will have today and tomorrow, it was interesting to see that he is not going to Iowa, Colorado or Virginia in the last days. Palin is going to Iowa and Colorado. I think that gives us some clues that he probably expects to lose there. They are putting a lot of efforts into Nevada it seems like.