MW08's FINAL House predictions

[MarkWarner08]

Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), FL-24 (Feeney), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), NJ-03* (Saxton), MN-03* (Ramstad),  NY-29 (Kuhl) , NJ-07* (Ferguson) PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) , MN-06 (Bachmann) , IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays), ID-01 (Sali), FL-08 (Keller) , MI-07 (Walberg), FL-25 (Diaz-Balart, Mario), IN-03 (Souder) ,OH-01 (Chabot), NE-02 (Terry), WA-08  (Reichert)

Upset watch:  IA-04, NJ-05, NV-02, NY-26 OH-02,  SC-01, TX-10, VA-05,  WY-AL
Near misses:  AL-02,  AZ-03,  FL-21, MD-01,  MO-09,  VA-02,  WV-02

GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney), PA-11 (Kanjorski)

Upset watch: PA-11, PA-12, GA-08, TX-22
Near misses: AL-05, LA-06, KS-02,  NH-01, PA-10, WI-08


Democrats pick up 32 GOP seats
Republican pick up 2 Democratic seats

Net gain: =  +30 Democrats

New House partisan breakdown:
266 Democrats
168 Republican
1  runoff (LA-04)

[Spaghetti Cat]

My Final Predictions
Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), MN-03* (Ramstad),  NY-29 (Kuhl) , PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) , IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays), ID-01 (Sali), FL-08 (Keller) , MI-07 (Walberg), FL-21 (Diaz-Balart, Lincoln), IN-03 (Souder) ,OH-01 (Chabot), NE-02 (Terry), NJ-07 (Ferguson), WA-08 (Reichert) (like you, extremely tough call)


GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney), PA-11, PA-12 (Murtha) (upset), GA-13 (Scott) (huge upset), KS-02 (Boyda)



Democrats pick up 29 GOP seats
Republican pick up 5 Democratic seats

Net gain: =  +24 Democrats

[minionofmidas]

Oh whatever, I'll play.

Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), FL-24 (Feeney), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), NJ-03* (Saxton), MN-03* (Ramstad),  PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays) 

GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney)

Democrats pick up 21 GOP seats
Republican pick up 1 Democratic seat

Net gain: =  +20 Democrats

New House partisan breakdown:
258 Democrats
176 Republican
1  runoff (LA-04)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

From my sad little thread:

Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
23. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
24. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
25. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)

Possible Democratic Pickups:

26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)
29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
36. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
37. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
38. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
39. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
40. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
41. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
42. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)
3. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
10. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)

Net 22 gain for the Democrats. I'm not including LA-04, because it won't be decided till December.

[MarkWarner08]

FL-21, OH-01, CT-04, and WA-08 were some of the toughest calls to make. I've also read that Robin Hayes has an astounding GOTV effort that is dominating that of the mismanaged Kissell campaign.

[Spaghetti Cat]

mainly disagreed with you on the NJ seats (I think NJ-7 goes Dem, and we keep the 3rd district), Michele Bachmann's seat (I think she'll hold on), and FL-24 (gotta keep the hope alive for my uncle)

[MarkWarner08]

mainly disagreed with you on the NJ seats (I think NJ-7 goes Dem, and we keep the 3rd district), Michele Bachmann's seat (I think she'll hold on), and FL-24 (gotta keep the hope alive for my uncle)

Tom Feeney's your uncle? Wow -- that's pretty cool.

[Sam Spade]

I'll do this tomorrow, along with everything else.

Your calls will be my tough calls, I suspect, MW08.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), FL-24 (Feeney), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), NJ-03* (Saxton), MN-03* (Ramstad),  NY-29 (Kuhl) , PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) , MN-06 (Bachmann) , IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays), ID-01 (Sali), FL-08 (Keller) , MI-07 (Walberg), FL-21 (Diaz-Balart, Lincoln), IN-03 (Souder) ,OH-01 (Chabot), NE-02 (Terry)


Upset watch:  IA-04, NJ-05, NV-02, NY-26 OH-02,  SC-01, TX-10, VA-05,  WY-AL
Near misses:  AL-02,  AZ-03,  FL-25, MD-01,  MO-09, NJ-07 (tough call – but I trust Mr. Moderate’s intuition here), VA-02, WA-08 (extremely tough call),  WV-02

GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney)

Upset watch: PA-11, PA-12, GA-08, TX-22
Near misses: AL-05, LA-06, KS-02,  NH-01, PA-10, WI-08


Democrats pick up 30 GOP seats
Republican pick up 1 Democratic seat

Net gain: =  +29 Democrats

New House partisan breakdown:
265 Democrats
169 Republican
1  runoff (LA-04)

What bist the difference between "upset watch" and "near miss" [qm]

[MarkWarner08]

What bist the difference between "upset watch" and "near miss" [qm]

It's really an artificial designation. There's no major difference - I just didn't want to put all the close races that I might be wrong about into one category.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dem pickup: CT-4 (Shays), NY-13 (Fossella), NY-25 (Walsh), NY-29 (Kuhl), PA-3 (English), NJ-3 (Saxton), MD-1 (Gilchrest), VA-11 (Davis), NC-8 (Hayes), SC-1 (Brown), FL-24 (Feeney), FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart), FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart), FL-8 (Keller), AL-2 (Everett), LA-4 (McCrey), TX-7 (Culberson), OH-1 (Chabot), OH-15 (Pryce), OH-16 (Regula), MI-7 (Whalberg), Mi-9 (Knollenberg), IN-3 (Souder), IL-10 (Kirk), IL-11 (Weller), MO-9 (Hulshof), NE-2 (Terry), MN-3 (Ramstad), MN-6 (Bachmann), ID-1 (Sali), CA-4 (Doolittle), AZ-1 (Renzi), AZ-3 (Shaddeg), NA-3 (Porter), CO-4 (Musgrave), NM-1 (Wilson), NM-2 (Pearce), AK (Young)

Republican pickup: PA-12 (Murtha), FL-16 (Mahoney)   

[JSojourner]

IN-03 going for Montagano would be a shock.  I know what the polls say but with Obama in this Congressional district trailing McCain by like 14, I have my doubts.

I'd love to see it, though.  Souder is horrible.

[TeePee4Prez]

From my sad little thread:

Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
23. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
24. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
25. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)

Possible Democratic Pickups:

26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)
29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
36. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
37. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
38. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
39. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
40. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
41. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
42. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)
3. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
10. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)

Net 22 gain for the Democrats. I'm not including LA-04, because it won't be decided till December.

Good list.  I'd put PA-6 (Gerlach) as an upset possibility as well with Obama potentially doing well there.  I wish we had a Mike Gerber or Andy Dinninman as our nominee.  We definitely win in those cases.

PA could possiblr be the only state with a net GOP GAIN when all's said and done thanks to our own party self-imploding (PA 11/12) and lack of aggression (PA 6).

[MarkWarner08]

Revision:
GOP will pick up FL-16 and PA-11.

[MarkWarner08]

Late switches:

Seats to the GOP: FL-21, PA-11
Seats to Democrats: FL-25, NJ-07, WA-08

[MarkWarner08]

Biggest shock to most of you: Nick Lampson is likely going to win reelection. The Lampson campaign has exceeded its voter goals in every county in the 22nd.  Democrats are outvoting Republican by 10% and Hispanics and Blacks are turning out in record numbers.

On election night, TX-22 is going to shock the Sabatos and the Rothenbergs of the world.

[Sam Spade]

Biggest shock to most of you: Nick Lampson is likely going to win reelection. The Lampson campaign has exceeded its voter goals in every county in the 22nd.  Democrats are outvoting Republican by 10% and Hispanics and Blacks are turning out in record numbers.

On election night, TX-22 is going to shock the Sabatos and the Rothenbergs of the world.

There aren't that many blacks and Hispanics in the CD (it's comparable to TX-7), but we'll see who's right there.    Your Dems over GOP is more enlightening, just so long as it's not from Brazoria County. 

I meant to ask the rationale for the late switches (I get PA-11 off the bat).

[MarkWarner08]

Biggest shock to most of you: Nick Lampson is likely going to win reelection. The Lampson campaign has exceeded its voter goals in every county in the 22nd.  Democrats are outvoting Republican by 10% and Hispanics and Blacks are turning out in record numbers.

On election night, TX-22 is going to shock the Sabatos and the Rothenbergs of the world.

There aren't that many blacks and Hispanics in the CD (it's comparable to TX-7), but we'll see who's right there.    Your Dems over GOP is more enlightening, just so long as it's not from Brazoria County. 

I meant to ask the rationale for the late switches (I get PA-11 off the bat).

FL-21 and FL-25 swap places because Martinez's baggage is too heavy (the ad featuring him assaulting a boy is extremely graphic and effective) and Garcia will be pushed over the top by Obama's GOTV efforts in his district, which is more Democratic than Martinez's.

NJ-07 flips because of a gut feeling that Stender rides the wave. I usually predict using logic and clear metrics. Not in this race. I just don't think Lance can dance his way to D.C. this year.

WA-08 moves to Burner because of her outstanding field operation and the hard-left turn of affluent suburbs.  Barone nailed it -  the upper middle class has been hit hard by plummeting home values and they're taking it out on the GOP.  That effect will be acute in WA-08.

[minionofmidas]

Oh whatever, I'll play.

Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), FL-24 (Feeney), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), NJ-03* (Saxton), MN-03* (Ramstad),  PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays) 

GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney)

Democrats pick up 21 GOP seats
Republican pick up 1 Democratic seat

Net gain: =  +20 Democrats

New House partisan breakdown:
258 Democrats
176 Republican
1  runoff (LA-04)

Two runoffs actually, not that the LA-2 runoff will be remotely interesting.

I want to specify though... breaking down House races into the six categories of Atlas predictions.
Basically tossup means I've no clue really who'll win, and I'll hardly consider myself to have been wrong if this goes the other way (unless the margin is massive), lean means I will, but won't exactly be shocked. Safe seats (ie seats where I will be shocked if I'm wrong) listed only where they're changing hands. In other groups, asterisk means changes hands.

Safe Dem
NY13, NY25, IL11, FL24, AZ1

Lean Dem
NH1, NJ3*, OH15*, OH16*, WI8, KS2, VA11*, GA8, AL5, LA6, CO4*, NM1*, AZ8, NV3*, AK*

Tossup Dem
CT4*, PA3*, PA11, IL10*, MI9*, MN3*, NC8*, FL8* (accidentally omitted from list above - so one extra Dem gain predicted), TX22, NM2*, CA4*

Tossup Rep
NY29, OH1, MI7, MN6, MD1, FL21, FL25, AL2, ID1, WA8

Lean Rep
NY26, NJ5, NJ7, OH2, IN3, IA4, MO9, NE2, VA2, VA5, FL13, KY2, TX7, TX10, WY, NV2

Safe Rep
FL16

[minionofmidas]

Safe Dem
NY13, NY25, IL11, FL24, AZ1

All happened, none were close.

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Wrong on KS2, LA6, AK. What's the word out on OH-15? When to expect figures here?

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Wrong in IL10, MN3, TX22, CA4.

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Wrong on NY29, OH1, MI7, MD1, AL2, ID1.

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Wrong on VA2, VA5.

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Well, obviously.

So... missed three of the four Dem losses, 8 Dem gains, wrongly predicted 4-5 Dem gains. Not great, but then I didn't claim to be great.