VA: Survey USA: Obama's lead down to 4

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Virginia President by Survey USA on 2008-11-01

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, I: 2%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that much of the change is due to party-composition in the sample.

This poll shows a 2-point advantage for the Democrats, the last one a 8-point advantage.

[Reaganfan]

I don't think a McCain win in VA is all that unrealistic.

[exopolitician]

Atleast hes still up. I'll take it.

[opebo]

I don't think a McCain win in VA is all that unrealistic.

Nor PA, Naso.  McCain wins by winning these two states narrowly.

[they don't love you like i love you]

At least he's at 50.

[Meeker]

All comes down to turnout...

[Reaganfan]

All comes down to turnout...

That's what is really interesting. Obama should have massive turnout...but Republicans walk over hot coals to get to the voting booth.

[Tender Branson]

Obama will need about 36% of Whites to win VA. I`m predicting the following:

Whites (73%): Obama 36%
Blacks (22%): Obama 95%
Others (5%): Obama 70%

Obama wins 50.7% statewide.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's going to win Virginia people.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama's going to win Virginia people.

I agree, but I won't really believe it until Virginia's called for him.

[Ronnie]

At least it's closing here.  I checked out the crosstabs, and they look pretty reasonable.

[Moooooo]

I'll take it... if memory serves correct SUSA tends to get better and better as the election closes in.  I remember they absolutely nailed for 05 gubernatorial race in VA.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Obama will need about 36% of Whites to win VA. I`m predicting the following:

Whites (73%): Obama 36%
Blacks (22%): Obama 95%
Others (5%): Obama 70%

Obama wins 50.7% statewide.

The question is do blacks make up 22% of the electorate?  If that drops just 1% in your scenario, McCain wins the state. 

[TheGlobalizer]

I don't think a McCain win in VA is all that unrealistic.

[Sbane]

Seems like SUSA has decided to put out some reasonable results. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins by 4-5 nationwide while winning VA by 3-4 points.

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 36% (30%): McCain 85% (84%); Obama 14% (12%)

Democrat 38% (38%): McCain 9% (12%); Obama 90% (87%)

Independent 24% (30%): McCain 45% (42%); Obama 44% (46%)

Conservative 35% (31%): McCain 79% (78%); Obama 17% (17%)

Moderate 44% (46%): McCain 34% (33%); Obama 62% (62%)

Liberal 15% (16%): McCain 9% (15%); Obama 88% (78%)

Regions:

Shenandoah 24% (25%): McCain 54% (47%); Obama 42% (46%)
Northeast 26% (26%): McCain 39% (33%); Obama 58% (63%)
Southeast 22% (21%): McCain 44% (46%); Obama 50% (48%)
Central 27% (28%): McCain 46% (46%); Obama 51% (49%)

(denotes SUSA, Oct. 25-26, 2008)

[Eraserhead]

Don't worry me in the final moments, Virginia.

[MR maverick]

VA has alot of Blacks in that state and i don't  think the Gop actually knows that little secret.

Now we all know the index Obama needs 35-36% of whites to carry southern states assuming he wins blacks 98% or so.

[TheGlobalizer]

VA has alot of Blacks in that state and i don't  think the Gop actually knows that little secret.

LOL.

Anyone who has been to Hampton Roads knows.