Georgia

[War on Want]

How low will white turnout need to go for Obama to carry Georgia or will Black turnout just need to stay exceptionally high? I have heard reports of race baiting/OMG 9/11 in Georgia constantly with McCain robocalls all over the state. Is this enough to energize rural and suburban Republicans into having good turnout?

[TheGlobalizer]

Obama will not win GA.

[War on Want]

Obama will not win GA.

Thanks for the shocking prediction.

[TheGlobalizer]

Obama will not win GA.

Thanks for the shocking prediction.

And thank you for the meaningless question. 

[Tender Branson]

The overall Black vote has to stay at about 31% for Obama to win GA. Let's say:

Whites (64%): Obama 26% (Rasmussen's share for Obama in their latest poll)
Blacks (31%): Obama 98%
Others (5%): Obama 70%

Obama wins 50.5% statewide.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The overall Black vote has to stay at about 31% for Obama to win GA. Let's say:

Whites (64%): Obama 26% (Rasmussen's share for Obama in their latest poll)
Blacks (31%): Obama 98%
Others (5%): Obama 70%

Obama wins 50.5% statewide.

that actually doesn't seem too far-fetched in light of the early voting numbers. McCain is still the favorite to win Georgia, but it's not a sure thing.

[SPC]

I would have said Obama would win Georgia if Barr weren't running such an abysmal campaign. But since he is, I say that McCain wins.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
50% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
  2% Others


GEORGIA SENATE -
49% (R) Chambliss
46% (D) Martin
  4% (L) Buckley

[TheresNoMoney]

Based on the outstanding early voting returns, I think Obama has a 50% chance to win Georgia on Tuesday.

[Ronnie]

Based on the outstanding early voting returns, I think Obama has a 50% chance to win Georgia on Tuesday.

You're out of your mind if you think the early voting numbers will hold.  You're in for a rude awakening if you're this optimistic.

[TheresNoMoney]

You're out of your mind if you think the early voting numbers will hold.  You're in for a rude awakening if you're this optimistic.

I'm not out of my mind at all. Of course the early voting numbers won't hold completely, but you have to remember that almost 2 million people have already voted and total turnout probably won't be more than 4 million. And in my best estimate, Obama has a 4%-8% lead over John McCain in early voting.

So think of it this way: 50% of the votes in Georgia have been counted and Obama has a 4%-8% lead.  Don't you think it may be hard for McCain to make up that deficit in the final 50%?

[Adam Griffin]

So far, 1,994,990 people have voted early in Georgia. Of those, 699,866 are black for a current total of 35.1%.

As of October 1, there are 1,636,423 black registered voters in the state. In 2004, there were 1,155,706 black registered voters. That's an increase of 480,717 registered black voters. In 2004, 72.2% of the black registered voters voted. It would be safe to say at least that many would vote this time around, although I could see black voter turnout be around 80%, or around 1,300,000 voters.

In 2004, 3,301,875 people voted in the general election. I think we'll see approximately 4,000,000 votes cast in Georgia in this election, which would place the black turnout at 32.5%.

According to the early voting stats and my estimation on number of votes cast in GA, roughly 50% of the people have already voted (1,994,990 out of 4,000,000). Based on that, 54% of blacks have already cast their vote (699,866/1,300,000). I don't believe that they're voting in much higher proportions than the rest of the electorate. Blacks will comprise 29.25% of Obama's vote, Latinos, Asians, and other groups will give him about 3%, which will leave the remaining 17.75% to be filled by whites in order to win. In summary, Obama will need about 26-27% of the white vote, with white turnout being around 63%, to hit the 50% mark.

[MR maverick]

Ok will he get that from white voters in Ga? What does it look like on the ground there?

 My honest OP:
 This could be a 1984 with the democart winning 40 states if the candidate was a white southern democrat  IE: Bill Clinton.

[Adam Griffin]

Ok will he get that from white voters in Ga? What does it look like on the ground there?

He could possibly get that much, but I live in a very Republican part of the state so it's hard to say. Metro Atlanta will carry over half of his support, while hopefully some of the South Georgia counties that still have a decent amount of white Democrats that went Republican in 2004 will go blue this time.

[HardRCafé]

Obama loses by at least 5%.

[TheresNoMoney]

John Kerry got 24% of the white vote in GA in 2004. Rasmussen has Obama getting 26% of the white vote in their most recent poll. With the bad economic times favoring Obama, I think he outperforms Kerry and will get a minimum of 26% of the white vote (probably more).

Let's do the calcuation, and I'll try to be on the conservative side for Obama:

11/2/08 breakdown of early voters (1.99 million total)

Black Voters:  35.08% @ 94% = 32.98%
White Voters: 60.20% @ 26% = 15.65%
Other Voters:   4.72% @ 65%  =  3.07%

Total Obama Estimated Early Vote = 51.7%

Total McCain Estimated Early Vote = roughly 44.61%

In my best estimate, Obama has a minimum lead of 4% right now and maximum lead of 9% or 10%. My best estimate is a 7% lead (shown above). And it should be remembered that Bob Barr will probably get 1%-3% of the vote in Georgia, which could be the difference in who wins or loses.

[MR maverick]

I would love to see Obama take GA as  slap in the face of the far right.

[HardRCafé]

In my best estimate, Obama has a minimum lead of 4% right now and maximum lead of 9% or 10%. My best estimate is a 7% lead (shown above). And it should be remembered that Bob Barr will probably get 1%-3% of the vote in Georgia, which could be the difference in who wins or loses.

Perhaps you should see a doctor.

[TheresNoMoney]

Perhaps you should see a doctor.

Perhaps you should actually look at the numbers I posted.  I'm not just making a wild prediction, the numbers back me up.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

In my best estimate, Obama has a minimum lead of 4% right now and maximum lead of 9% or 10%. My best estimate is a 7% lead (shown above). And it should be remembered that Bob Barr will probably get 1%-3% of the vote in Georgia, which could be the difference in who wins or loses.

Perhaps you should see a doctor.

Wow. For the first time I find my self agreeing with HardRCafé. I never thought that would ever happen.

I still cannot believe that people believe that former Congressman Barr is actually going to receive 3% of the vote in Georgia. Sure he might hail from Georgia, but he has run such a bad campaign for the presidency of the United States that he'd be lucky even to receive 1% of the Georgian vote. Speaking of Bob Barr reminds me of when people expected him to have an impact on the race. HAHA!!!

[TheresNoMoney]

I still cannot believe that people believe that former Congressman Barr is actually going to receive 3% of the vote in Georgia.

I said 1%-3% of the vote, probably closer to 1%. It will be a very small amount, but possibly enough to tip the race to Obama. And I honestly don't think the black vote will drop all that much on Election Day, they're extremely motivated to vote for Obama.

[SPC]

I still cannot believe that people believe that former Congressman Barr is actually going to receive 3% of the vote in Georgia.

I said 1%-3% of the vote, probably closer to 1%. It will be a very small amount, but possibly enough to tip the race to Obama.

If Barr weren't running such a half-assed campaign, then possibly. Otherwise, I don't know what you are smoking.