Predict two complete surprise upsets

[Spaghetti Cat]

Predict one GOP and one Dem upset (a race that hasn't been mentioned as competative)


Iowa's 2nd (Loebsack vs. Miller-Meeks)
Florida's 7th (Mica vs. Armitage)

[Lief 🗽]

TX-10 (McCaul)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)

[SPC]

North Carolina-4
California-48

[MarkWarner08]

SC-01 (Brown)
TX-10 (McCaul)

Races that the DCCC didn't play in that could flip:
IA-04 and CA-50

VA-05 and NV-02 are two other possible surprises.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now, look here, the thing about surprises...

[Sam Spade]

I like the fact that no one paid attention to the rules.

[SPC]

I like the fact that no one paid attention to the rules.

No one has mentioned David Price (D-NC) and John Campbell (R-CA) as being in danger. How did I break the rules?

[MarkWarner08]

I like the fact that no one paid attention to the rules.

Good point ...

The two surprises (amended to follow the rules): TX-10 and PA-12.

[Sam Spade]

I like the fact that no one paid attention to the rules.

Good point ...

The two surprises (amended to follow the rules): TX-10 and PA-12.

Very good choices.  I might make the same.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NE-2
PA-12

[Associate Justice PiT]

     What if I don't believe that there will be two surprise upsets?

[Brittain33]

What are the chances that a Dem is upset in a race no one sees as competitive today? If this election were closer to 50/50, maybe...

[Kevinstat]

One Republican upset of a Democrat: ME-01 (Charlie Summers did win the student mock election in that district; do I really think he'll win? no, but I wanted to name one somewhat plausable one that hasn't been on the national radar, although Summers did speak at the Republican National Convention)

As for Democratic upsets of Republicans, would any Democratic win this year be that surprising?  Just kidding, I know some would be, but I can't think of any that I think the Democrats might win that hasn't been speculated as a potential Democratic win (pretty much what brittain33 said).

[JSojourner]

IN-03 for Montagano

Sununu defeats Shaheen.  (Not sure that's actually an upset...)

[Mr.Phips]

AL-03 and IA-04. 

[Daniel Z]

For the Democrats IL-18

Republicans: WA-3

[HardRCafé]

One Republican upset of a Democrat: ME-01 (Charlie Summers did win the student mock election in that district; do I really think he'll win? no, but I wanted to name one somewhat plausable one that hasn't been on the national radar, although Summers did speak at the Republican National Convention)

Good post.  In a Republican landslide, Pingree would have to work to win.

In a Democratic landslide, on the other hand, Pingree can have her pie and eat it too.

[Lunar]

I already predicted CA-4's upset potential, against all opposition (), so I'm pretty exhausted.

Honestly, I have no idea though.  I haven't done the investigative work that allows me to out-predict the polls anywhere else.  Does both of the Diaz-balart brothers losing count as an upset?

[bgwah]

For the Democrats IL-18

Republicans: WA-3

Do you have any reason to believe WA-3 will be competitive? Baird will probably be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

[??????????]

Ted Stevens holds his seat.

[AngelFromKansas]

republicans; pa-12 murthas going to get beat.

democrats; nv-2, nv-3 both flip. porter needs to win to challenge harry reid in 2010.

[Daniel Z]

For the Democrats IL-18

Republicans: WA-3

Do you have any reason to believe WA-3 will be competitive? Baird will probably be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Of course Baird will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. I just listed WA-3 because I dont think the reapublicans will pull any major suprises. I do think Delavar will pull a larger than expected portion of the Democratic vote since there are a lot of people on the left in the 3rd that absolutly hate Baird for switcing on the war. That and I wanted to give a shout out to my former district.

[cannonia]

Heh, just to be silly...

CA-2: Wally Herger is kicked out from his safe district.  the GOP is shut out of the northern CA congressional delegation.

CA-8: San Franciscans wake up the morning after Election day with a hangover and a new congresswoman, each of them having believed they would be the only one to vote for Cindy Sheehan.  Hilarity ensues. (OK, not a GOP takeover, but whatever)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

For the Democrats: Frank Wolf loses VA-10 to Judy Feder.
For the Republicans: Um... Don Young surges back to win AK-AL, I guess?

[perdedor]

SC-01 (Brown)
TX-10 (McCaul)