True or False: If McCain fails to win Pennsylvania, he has lost the election.
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  True or False: If McCain fails to win Pennsylvania, he has lost the election.
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Author Topic: True or False: If McCain fails to win Pennsylvania, he has lost the election.  (Read 3531 times)
Franzl
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« on: November 02, 2008, 05:05:41 PM »

?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2008, 05:07:10 PM »

Almost certainly.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2008, 05:07:18 PM »

Without a doubt.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2008, 05:07:24 PM »

T
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Franzl
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2008, 05:07:44 PM »

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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2008, 05:08:40 PM »

He is what we would call JWF or SOL.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2008, 05:33:01 PM »

Due to early voting, Obama has New Mexico and Colorado locked in. Iowa is obviously safe Obama. With Pennsylvania, that's over 270.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2008, 05:34:05 PM »

Absolutely.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2008, 05:45:20 PM »

If Obama can perform as well as Kerry did on the coast, McCain has two choices-

He can lose Ohio and Florida so we can all get some stut-eye, or he can be a little queer and wait for Colorado and New Mexico, which will probably take all night.

I can see this happening, for example-




11  MST- We have just called Colorado for Obama and Nevada for McCain. New Mexico is still too close to call.





5 AM-  New Mexico is still too close to call... Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2008, 05:53:06 PM »

False, but PA is one of two paths to victory (not the one I predicted).
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Wall St. Wiz
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2008, 06:05:06 PM »

True, because Colorado is in the bag for Obama.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2008, 06:08:21 PM »

     True. Obama's running too strongly in too many states for McCain to have a prayer without PA.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2008, 06:09:33 PM »

     True. Obama's running too strongly in too many states for McCain to have a prayer without PA.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2008, 06:12:05 PM »

False, but PA is one of two paths to victory (not the one I predicted).

What is the 2nd path?
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Lunar
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2008, 06:12:23 PM »

Crazy Iowa longshot, probably about as sane as the Colorado one at this point:
McCain victory


Also, this puts McCain over the top:
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2008, 06:33:18 PM »

False - CO, NV, VA are not out of reach... They are all tossups.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2008, 06:36:20 PM »

2nd path is really just McCain takes the Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico (274 EV).  The catch is, how likely is it for McCain to take Colorado if we're already assuming that the national swing from the polls is small enough that Obama still takes Pennsylvania?
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2008, 06:36:42 PM »

No, Bush 2000 minus NH.  It actually has McCain running not quite as well as Bush 2000 did.

There is a third way, but the odds are even higher on that.  That one is the IA hold with a loss in NH and CO.

I think the two main paths are a Bush 2000 minus NH pattern or a PA pattern.  

Basically a victory in PA would give McCain a sizable cushion where he could lose NH, VA, CO and every other state Gore carried.  

I've never expected anything but a close election.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2008, 07:22:09 PM »


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Monty
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2008, 07:23:28 PM »

PA is the ONLY path for McCain.  Colorado is already gone.  McCain has 2 days not 2 months.
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J. J.
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2008, 07:27:34 PM »

PA is the ONLY path for McCain.  Colorado is already gone.  McCain has 2 days not 2 months.

Not the "ONLY" path.
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memphis
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2008, 08:07:31 PM »

McCain has no realistic path that adds to 270. McCain can talk all he want about how competitive this race is. It doesn't make it so. We're looking at a 1996 style map with a few states flipped in each direction.
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Mr.Jones
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2008, 08:23:52 PM »

True.
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Boris
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2008, 08:36:31 PM »

McCain has no realistic path that adds to 270. McCain can talk all he want about how competitive this race is. It doesn't make it so. We're looking at a 1996 style map with a few states flipped in each direction.

A McCain victory basically requires public polling to utterly fail. Obama has lead in the past 20 polls in Colorado as well as the past 46 polls in PA.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2008, 08:38:35 PM »

McCain has no realistic path that adds to 270. McCain can talk all he want about how competitive this race is. It doesn't make it so. We're looking at a 1996 style map with a few states flipped in each direction.

A McCain victory basically requires public polling to utterly fail. Obama has lead in the past 20 polls in Colorado as well as the past 46 polls in PA.

It's called a "Bradley Effect."  How much, if any, that will be is questionable.  We'll find out in about 48 hours.
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