True or False: If McCain fails to win Pennsylvania, he has lost the election. (user search)
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  True or False: If McCain fails to win Pennsylvania, he has lost the election. (search mode)
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Author Topic: True or False: If McCain fails to win Pennsylvania, he has lost the election.  (Read 3577 times)
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« on: November 02, 2008, 06:09:33 PM »

     True. Obama's running too strongly in too many states for McCain to have a prayer without PA.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,173
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2008, 09:14:34 PM »

McCain has no realistic path that adds to 270. McCain can talk all he want about how competitive this race is. It doesn't make it so. We're looking at a 1996 style map with a few states flipped in each direction.

A McCain victory basically requires public polling to utterly fail. Obama has lead in the past 20 polls in Colorado as well as the past 46 polls in PA.

It's called a "Bradley Effect."  How much, if any, that will be is questionable.  We'll find out in about 48 hours.

Undecideds who claim they "don't know enough" about Obama are very, very likely not voting for him because he's black. Note that these people are not saying they'll vote Obama: they're saying they're undecided when they actually know full well they're going to vote McCain... that is, if they're willing to spend 3-4 hours waiting in line. Is this a Bradley Effect? I'm not sure.
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