When will we know who the winner is?

[Lief]

When I say "know" I mean the networks will have called the election for one candidate or another or one of the candidates will have conceded.

[Ronnie]

I think we know who the winner is now.

[TheGlobalizer]

Yes, VA closes early enough to resolve before midnight.

The rest should be clear.

[J. J.]

If Obama strongly carries VA, we'll know by 9:00 PM.  If PA is not close, we won't know by midnight!

[Mr. Morden]

I think there's maybe a 50/50 chance that the networks will call the race for Obama the second after the polls close on the West Coast at 11pm Eastern.  (Zero chance of them calling it before that.)  Even if Virginia's close, polls close there at 7pm, so it should be called by then.  All of the West Coast states and Hawaii stand a good chance of being called for Obama at poll closing time, and other Gore/Kerry states will probably be called for him by then too, so let's say 11pm Eastern, or shortly thereafter.  I assume that, should this happen, McCain wouldn't wait all that long to call Obama and concede and then make a concession speech shortly thereafter, but who knows.  It's possibly that there could be more of a lag between the networks officially calling the race, and McCain making his actual concession speech.

[nick]

If PA is not close, we won't know by midnight!

is or is not?

[J. J.]

If PA is not close, we won't know by midnight!

is or is not?

"Is" sorry.

[Prez Duke]

If VA is called early for Obama, or if Indiana looks like it may be in Obama's column, I think it will be safe to say he's won the election. If Indiana goes to McCain by 9 or so, and Virginia comes in very close, we might be up for a while. If Pennsylvania somehow goes to McCain, I can't imagine what will happen next.

[nick]

If PA goes McCain, my opinion is, it's game over for O... I don't care about the alternate paths to victory...

[cinyc]

If PA goes McCain, my opinion is, it's game over for O... I don't care about the alternate paths to victory...

Obama could very easily win even if he loses Pennsylvania.

[Prez Duke]

If PA goes McCain, my opinion is, it's game over for O... I don't care about the alternate paths to victory...

Obama could very easily win even if he loses Pennsylvania.

Yes, but conventional wisdom says that if McCain wins Pennsylvania, there is a great chance Virginia, Nevada and Colorado have moved closer to him. All he needs to do is win PA, NV and hold OH and NC and FL to win the election even without Virginia.

[SPC]

Here is my method:
If Obama wins NH by >5%, Obama wins
If Obama wins NH by <5%, McCain wins

Using this method, I will know the 44th president by a little after 5:00 PST

[Workers' Friend]

I;m not sure, but I'll find out soon. (I get to help with a local TV station in my town with the election turnout and results. )

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Here is my method:
If Obama wins NH by >5%, Obama wins
If Obama wins NH by <5%, McCain wins

Using this method, I will know the 44th president by a little after 5:00 PST

That's mad silly, bro.

[Verily]

We should "know" by 9:30 p.m. or so based on the earlier closings and county results coming in. We will know, officially, definitely by around midnight, probably at around 11 p.m. or shortly thereafter. (Obama is pretty unlikely to get 270 electoral votes called for him before the polls close on the West Coast.) All times are EST.

[Politico]

The Networks will officially declare Obama president-elect as soon as the polls close in California (i.e., 11 PM EST / 8 PM PST) even though everybody will know it's really over the minute Florida, Ohio or Virginia are called for Obama.