what states can obama win in the general that clinton cant?

[Smash255]

Hillary helps in the Upper South, Obama helps in the West. 

That sums it up. 

Obama does better than Clinton in Virginia

[jokerman]

In a conventional race, Colorado is the only state that comes to mind as being virtually out of reach for Clinton but very much in play for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In a conventional race, Colorado is the only state that comes to mind as being virtually out of reach for Clinton but very much in play for Obama.

Based on polls, also Nevada.

[jokerman]

In a conventional race, Colorado is the only state that comes to mind as being virtually out of reach for Clinton but very much in play for Obama.

Based on polls, also Nevada.

Are you sure about that?  Based on both the polls I've seen and my own reasoning, I really think Clinton would have a shot in Nevada.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66093.0

Look at the GE polls.

[Mr.Phips]

Hillary helps in the Upper South, Obama helps in the West. 

That sums it up. 

I cannot think of one state that she would carry in the upper south.  She might break 45% in Tennessee and Kentucky, but thats the best she will do. 

[Lunar]

I think everyone has to focus on states that one or the other can win in event of that state actually mattering.  Probably, to the credit of Waltermitty, if the election is close, the best Obamarguments are for Colorado, Virginia, and the Western Midwest.  Hillary has a stronger claim for the Eastern Midwest (OH, WV, PA) and Southwest (NV& NM) and Arkansas.

As an Obama supporter, I think Hillary's math looks much better if it is a close race.  However, I believe that Obama is more likely to win in something that doesn't resemble a close race.  It's really unfair to simply compare the candidates in a 50/50 or even a 52/48 election without also comparing their chances for a moderate or large landslide.

Obama DOES open up states that Hillary can't depending on the scenario.  He competes better in the strategically important Western Midwest (IA, MN, WI, possibly MI & MO).  An Obama landslide, big or small, looks *very* different from a Hillary landslide to us political junkies.  Obama will comparatively drive up youth, white male, and African-American turnout, and drive down the Hispanic & eww old people turnout.  It's again simply ridiculous to claim that they'd be the exact same electoral contenders.

[MODU]

just wondering.

cant think of any myself.

VA would be THE state, simply because VA hates the Clintons.

[agcatter]

Lunar's analysis is pretty good.  I would possibly disagree about Michigan and definitely disagree about Missouri.  The other state evaluations seem pretty good to me.

[Lunar]

Lunar's analysis is pretty good.  I would possibly disagree about Michigan and definitely disagree about Missouri.  The other state evaluations seem pretty good to me.

Yeah I think I was a bit  dumb when I said MO.  I don't know, every article I've read (maybe 4+) has said that MO is trending democratic when to me it's always seemed the opposite.  I'll change my opinion of "maybe MO" to "probably a tie" between Obama and Clinton numbers.  I don't know, I see a little more hope for Obama than Clinton due to his surprising upset microscopic victory there.  But, I guess it won't matter that much. 

I still think Obama would do better in the general in MI than Clinton.  I don't know if I have any factual basis for this except perceptions of excitement and African-American demographic numbers.  Clinton won an uncontested early on, where name recognition means a lot, 55-45 against uncommitted? Even assuming a HUGE Obama grassroots movement to get African-Americans to vote uncommitted, I'm not convinced that this explains Clinton's god-awful showing in the state early on.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wrote my list of swing states for each.

Clinton would be stronger to REALLY bring Florida and West Virginia into play - but Obama would do the same in Colorado.

I think both C and O have similar shots at VA, MO, MI and WI. Clinton will play better in OH and PA (the lynchpins).

As far as I'm concerned, the only state that Obama can win that Clinton definitely cant would be Colorado.

[Torie]

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin. In a tight election, Obama does have electoral college problems. He drops votes in big states that are in play (NJ, Penn, Ohio, Florida and maybe Michigan), and what he picks up will be in many states that he will still lose. Sure he might flip Colorado that has a youngish population, and maybe Nevada, but in general, he has a problem.

I should add that 44% of Dems have a positive opinion of McCain per the CNN poll. So it won't take much for McCain to get a pretty good cut from Clinton voters.

[Lunar]

Oh crap, you're right, in Florida Clinton will do better than McCain.  Speaking of old people, FLA is the definition of an old, white electorate.  It does have some African-Americans and a good variety of Republican and Democratic Hispanics.  I can't see an old white electorate supporting the unconventional young black candidate.

I think Florida is McCain's in a 50-50 or 48-52 scenario.  But Hillary *can* force McCain to spend more money in those expensive media markets than Barrack, and both Hilldawg and Barrack will have more money to play around and force him to do such things.

[Torie]

Pennsylvania is a better definition of an old white electorate than Florida actually. I think Penn might be the "oldest" state in the nation. The Pittsburg metro area might be the oldest one in the nation.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Clinton would be stronger to REALLY bring Florida and West Virginia into play - but Obama would do the same in Colorado.

I think both C and O have similar shots at VA, MO, MI and WI. Clinton will play better in OH and PA (the lynchpins).

As far as I'm concerned, the only state that Obama can win that Clinton definitely cant would be Colorado.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I also think that if Hillary is the nominee that the Dems will do slightly better in the Keystone state than Obama.

[Lunar]

Pennsylvania is a better definition of an old white electorate than Florida actually. I think Penn might be the "oldest" state in the nation. The Pittsburg metro area might be the oldest one in the nation.

Do you have any numbers? 

I've found projections:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://proximityone.com/st0030.htm

At the very least, those last six states are trending more eww old people than the rest of the forty four states. 

I found a blog post in my quick searching that claims that PA has the second oldest population in the US after Florida.  http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/3/15/185419/176
              Take it with a grain of salt though, I do not endorse random comments

[Torie]

Here is a state geezer chart. Yes Florida is number one (my bad), and Penn number two. Of course, the geezers in Florida are a quite different breed than those in Penn, and more diverse, and I suspect, considerably more wealthy down in Florida. Many of those in Penn are too poor to split. 

In median age, Maine is the oldest.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

just wondering.

cant think of any myself.

Ha ha.

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin.

And the moral of the story is...

[Angel of Death]

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin.

And the moral of the story is...

It's the economy, stupid!

[Torie]

just wondering.

cant think of any myself.

Ha ha.

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin.

And the moral of the story is...

That there is a rest of the story. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

just wondering.

cant think of any myself.

Ha ha.

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin.

And the moral of the story is...

That there is a rest of the story. 

That was obvious back in March though.

Maybe not to put too much faith in over-media hyped nonsense since Wright didn't matter one iota in the end. Which is a good thing sine there is absolutely no reason anyone with a brain should've cared about Wright.

[The Ex-Factor]

Obama can win and Hillary can't:

Colorado
Nevada
(13 EVs)

Obama will win easily but Hillary will have to fight:

Nevada
Iowa
Virginia
New Hampshire
(29 EVs)

Obama can't win but he can force McCain to spend money there and Hillary couldn't:

Montana
North Carolina
(18 Evs)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hillary can win and Obama can't:
Arkansas
West Virginia
(10 EVs)

Hillary will win easily but Obama will have to fight
Ohio
(20 EVs)

Hillary can't win but would force McCain to spend money there:
Kentucky
Tennessee
(19 EVs)

This guy is prescient.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Other than saying Obama can't win North Carolina.

[Matt Damon™]

indiana