Which state is going to be the wildcard of the night. lets be bold.
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  Which state is going to be the wildcard of the night. lets be bold.
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Author Topic: Which state is going to be the wildcard of the night. lets be bold.  (Read 6547 times)
AngelFromKansas
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« on: November 03, 2008, 12:12:19 PM »
« edited: November 03, 2008, 12:14:07 PM by AngelFromKansas »

North Dakota

Can obama turn a 27 pt defeat in 2004 to less than 3-4pts would be remarkable. he wont win but it will be too close to call on election night. kent conrad and byron dorgan get over 60% of the vote and they are not conservative on anything. they are populist and obama plays the same kind of card so i think he plays well here and im sure he breaks 45%. he will need maybe 200,000 votes to carry the state.

darkhorses
Tennessee [republican]
Connecticut [democrat]

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Kalimantan
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2008, 12:20:22 PM »

Oh I can definitely see North Dakota going Dem. Much easier to get a wild swing in a little state than a big one.

(In what I realise is in complete opposition to the above statement) if I had to name one state that has not been talked about at all so far, but could be interesting, I'll say TEXAS. If only because saying that IN, or GA, or MT flipping isn't that wildcard right now.

If it all goes tits up the other way (how could that be possible?) then New Mexico is my bet for the wildcard.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2008, 12:27:06 PM »

New Mexico and Nevada are notoriously wacky states. They could cause all of us to scratch our heads tomorrow.

Montana and North Dakota are too obviously of wildcards, so I'll go with Arizona. Polls have been tightening, and it would have been a swing state if McCain wasn't on the ticket. Hey, crazier things have happened.

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elcorazon
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2008, 12:30:11 PM »

Indiana would be a pretty dramatic swing, particularly if Obama could pull out a win there.  Same with NC, especially considering an NC senator was on the ticket 4 yrs ago.  Wild pick to make a big swing:  South Dakota, maybe.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2008, 12:32:15 PM »

If we're going to be bold, Minnesota.

Coerced "bold" predictions tend toward stupid.
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wildfood
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2008, 12:32:15 PM »

N.C.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2008, 12:41:59 PM »

North Dakota and Montana, chiefly because nobody has any idea what's actually going on in those states. It could just as easily be an Obama victory as it could be a McCain victory with margins similar to 2004.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2008, 01:54:47 PM »

LA, I'm being Bold.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2008, 01:59:02 PM »

ND or MT are the sane, ie non-bold, bold picks. Picking anything else would be just plain stupid.

So... in that spirit... McCain takes California!
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2008, 02:00:02 PM »

Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia are classified as "toss up" by RCP averages, as is Arizona.  So none of these count as "bold."  I'm going to say:

Mississippi.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2008, 02:01:53 PM »

NM
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2008, 02:03:27 PM »

Coerced "bold" predictions tend toward stupid.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2008, 02:46:03 PM »

I'll throw out some extremely unlikely but not impossible suggestions:

For Obama: AR
For McCain: NJ
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Politico
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2008, 02:50:42 PM »

True wildcards not many folks are talking about: TX, AR, LA, MS & SC

The only potential wildcards for McCain: ME-2, NH & PA
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afleitch
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2008, 03:23:39 PM »

Arkansas. A McCain win but probably not by much more than 4 or 5%
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exopolitician
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2008, 03:24:48 PM »

Missouri, Indiana, and/or North Carolina.
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2008, 03:58:03 PM »

South Carolina
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2008, 03:59:36 PM »

If you want me to be "bold" on the Republican side, Minnesota - it will be closer than expected, with McCain having a small shot to win it.

Bold is usually dead wrong, though.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2008, 04:00:17 PM »

To be bold:

New Hampshire: The pollsters got it wrong in the primaries, why should we expect them to get it right now? 
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2008, 08:45:43 PM »

As cynic said bold IS usually wrong. On the Democratic side it is the Southern states nobody talks about: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. For the Republicans I guess maybe McCain does better than expected in New England.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2008, 08:49:22 PM »

Indiana will be an "expected" wildcard, given that it's been an eternity since it was this pro-Democrat.
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J. J.
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2008, 08:55:25 PM »

PA, something is happening, but I don't know what.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2008, 09:03:50 PM »

Georgia may be a surprise...but that pick may not be that bold.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2008, 09:11:45 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2008, 09:13:26 PM by ICE HOCKEY »

Though it means nothing electorally these areas have surprising simiarities to Northeast Philly and could shift dramatically towards McCain:

Eastern MA- Could we see some towns flip?  I could see Obama possibly getting UNDER 60 % statewide.  Remember McCain has always done well here in primaries.

Rhode Island under 60% highly possible.  Elects a lot of pro-life Dems for some reason and is not immune to race problems.

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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2008, 09:13:46 PM »

Every poll that I've looked at tells me Obama will do at least as well as Gore in PA.  History tells me Obama will win PA.  As a veteran of a few PA campaigns, everything tell me Obama should win.

I still get the feeling that, if I was working for the Obama campaign in PA, I'd be scared sh**tless at this point.
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