Post your Election Night Guide

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

here's mine (hinges off of VA and CO, obviously):

McCain Must hold +OH+MO+IN+South(except VA)+MT+ND+AZ...any loss in one of those and election is over

assuming the above, then...

Obama victory: 
+VA+PA or -PA+VA+CO+NV+NH+IA+NM

McCain Victory:
+VA+PA or -PA+VA+CO+(NV or NH or IA or NM) or -VA+PA+(IA or NH or CO or NM or NV)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Starting probabilities:
Obama 95%, McCain 5%

First signs:
If Indiana is too close to call: Obama 99% McCain 1%

If Indiana is called for Obama: Game Over.

If Pennsylvania is too close to call: Obama 85% McCain 15%

If Pennsylvania is called for Obama: Obama 98% McCain 2%

If Pennsylvania is called for McCain: Obama 35% McCain 65%

If Virginia is called for Obama: Game Over.

If Virginia is too close to call: No change.

If Virginia is called for McCain: Obama 90% McCain 10%

Next set, assuming McCain is still in the game:
If Ohio is called for Obama: Game Over

If Ohio is too close to call: Obama 98% McCain 10%

If Ohio is called for McCain: Obama 90% McCain 10%

If Ohio and Virginia are called for McCain: Obama 60% McCain 40%

If Florida is called for Obama: Game Over

If Florida is too close to call: No change.

If Florida is called for McCain: Obama 85% McCain 15%

If Florida and Virginia are called for McCain: Obama 55% McCain 45%

If Florida, Virginia, and Ohio are called for McCain: Obama 30% McCain 70%

If FL, VA, OH, and PA are called for McCain: Game Over (McCain wins)

North Carolina: See Indiana

If Georgia is too close to call: Game Over.

Further on...
Missouri will tell us nothing.  If it goes Obama, his victory will already be certain anyway.

After this, if McCain has any shot at an electoral majority, it will come down to Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.  It's all electoral math to determine who needs what.  Most likely, if anything is in doubt, McCain will need two of them or all three.  Obama will probably need all three if he loses PA and he's still in it.

[HardRCafé]

If Georgia is too close to call: Game Over.

Not quite.  They said South Carolina was too close to call last time.  What was the margin, 16%?

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Kentucky is too close to call: game over, Obama is headed for 400 EVs

If Indiana is too close to call: it very likely means Obama has won, but we'll have to wait and see

Georgia won't be called right away, because nobody actually knows what's going on there, and with black turnout in early voting being what it's been, nobody's going to call it based on traditional voter turnout proportions.

If Obama wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, the election is over for McCain. If Obama wins North Carolina, the election is over for McCain. If McCain wins Pennsylvania, it likely means he's managed to hold Virginia and almost certainly managed to hold Ohio, giving him a big advantage.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

everyone:  don't pay attention to "too close to calls" unless they're that way for at least an hour.  last two times the early "too close to calls" made you think Bush was going to lose and lose badly.  And with Obama running, the demographics are going to be different, so they will really have trouble modeling the states.

[JSojourner]

everyone:  don't pay attention to "too close to calls" unless they're that way for at least an hour.  last two times the early "too close to calls" made you think Bush was going to lose and lose badly.  And with Obama running, the demographics are going to be different, so they will really have trouble modeling the states.

Yep.  Excellent point.  And sometimes you'll hear the networks use the phrase "too early to call" instead of "too close". 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

everyone:  don't pay attention to "too close to calls" unless they're that way for at least an hour.  last two times the early "too close to calls" made you think Bush was going to lose and lose badly.  And with Obama running, the demographics are going to be different, so they will really have trouble modeling the states.

Yes. In 2004 they said a lot of states, especially Bush states, were too close to call. Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, etc .. and these went to Bush by 8, 13 and 17 respectively. If they remain too close for an hour or so, then begin to worry. They won't call many states out of the gate.

[Torie]

Look at raw vote totals in Kentucky counties, and compare to 2004. If and when I see Jefferson County going to Obama by 15%, then I know it's over before it began. If it is a 10% margin, it's probably over. If it is at 5% or so, it might be a fun night. Check out next door Oldham for a reality check as insurance it is not just a black turnout thingy.