Rothenberg Presidential Ratings

[Nym90]

2008 Presidential Battleground Ratings

Total Electoral Votes
(270 needed to win)

Obama - 273 (safe/likely) + 80 (lean) = 353
McCain - 131 (safe/likely) + 28 (lean) = 159
Toss-ups = 26

Toss-Ups

    * Indiana (11)
    * Missouri (11)
    * Nebraska (1)*
    * North Dakota (3)

Lean McCain

    * Arizona (10)
    * Georgia (15)
    * Montana (3)

Lean Obama

    * Florida (27)
    * Nevada (5)
    * North Carolina (15)
    * Ohio (20)
    * Virginia (13)

Safe/Likely McCain

    * Alabama (9)
    * Alaska (3)
    * Arkansas (6)
    * Idaho (4)
    * Kansas (6)
    * Kentucky (8 )
    * Louisiana (9)
    * Mississippi (6)
    * Nebraska (4)*
    * Oklahoma (7)
    * South Carolina (8 )
    * South Dakota (3)
    * Tennessee (11)
    * Texas (34)
    * Utah (5)
    * West Virginia (5)
    * Wyoming (3)

Safe/Likely Obama

    * California (55)
    * Colorado (9)
    * Connecticut (7)
    * Delaware (3)
    * Hawaii (4)
    * Illinois (21)
    * Iowa (7)
    * Maine (4)
    * Maryland (10)
    * Massachusetts (12)
    * Michigan (17)
    * Minnesota (10)
    * New Jersey (15)
    * New Hampshire (4)
    * New Mexico (5)
    * New York (31)
    * Oregon (7)
    * Pennsylvania (21)
    * Rhode Island (4)
    * Vermont (3)
    * Washington (11)
    * Wisconsin (10)
    * D.C. (3)

[TheresNoMoney]

Is NE-02 really a tossup?

[Lief 🗽]

Seems about right.

[Moooooo]

Stu's a partisan, but one of the best, right?

[TheGlobalizer]

Who is Rothenberg?

[tokar]

Who is Rothenberg?

One of the four trusted nonpartisan race raters.
The four trusted people are Stu Rotherberg, CQPolitics, Larry Sabato and Cook Political.

[JSojourner]

Who is Rothenberg?

One of the four trusted nonpartisan race raters.
The four trusted people are Stu Rotherberg, CQPolitics, Larry Sabato and Cook Political.

I'm quite confident Sabato's projections are entirely non-partisan.  His other ramblings strike me as fairly favorable to Republicans.

[J. J.]

Just going by the polling, neither OH nor NC should be lean Obama.  At best, a tossup.

PA should be lean Obama.

[Reds4]

I think Ohio should be lean Obama, but NC should be tossup

[tokar]

Just going by the polling, neither OH nor NC should be lean Obama.  At best, a tossup.

PA should be lean Obama.

The problem is that Stu uses only a 5 rating system as opposed to a 7 or 9 rating system.

5 ratings = strong gop, lean gop, tossup, lean dem, strong dem
7 ratings = strong gop, mod gop, lean gop, tossup, lean dem, mod dem, strong dem
9 ratings = safe gop, strong gop, mod gop, lean gop, tossup, lean dem, mod dem, strong dem, safe dem
(or you can do 3 rating like The Washington Post...lean gop, tossup, lean dem)

So there is no "moderate" rating for Stu.  PA falls more into the "moderate dem" category rather than the "lean dem" category so Stu probably just pushed it into the stronger of the two rating choices.

CQPolitics which uses a 7 rating system - PA is mod dem
Larry Sabato uses a 7 rating system - PA is lean dem (but hasn't been updated since Oct 16)
Cook Political uses a 7 rating system - PA is lean dem (then again they have MI/WI/IA/NM all lean dem too...don't know when this was last updated either)

[cinyc]

Who is Rothenberg?

One of the four trusted nonpartisan race raters.
The four trusted people are Stu Rotherberg, CQPolitics, Larry Sabato and Cook Political.

I'm quite confident Sabato's projections are entirely non-partisan.  His other ramblings strike me as fairly favorable to Republicans.

Sabato leans Democrat, not Republican.  He predicted Kerry would win for most of 2004, before finally claiming the race would be a tie in the electoral college.

[JSojourner]

Who is Rothenberg?

One of the four trusted nonpartisan race raters.
The four trusted people are Stu Rotherberg, CQPolitics, Larry Sabato and Cook Political.

I'm quite confident Sabato's projections are entirely non-partisan.  His other ramblings strike me as fairly favorable to Republicans.

Sabato leans Democrat, not Republican.  He predicted Kerry would win for most of 2004, before finally claiming the race would be a tie in the electoral college.

Right.  But his editorial comments, in his weekly emails and newsletters reveal a very mild sympathy for Republican ideas.  He's exceptionally reliable and, no matter what venue I have seen him in, a pleasant and very smart man.  But based on nuance and the content of his analysis (not his predictions), he's a Republican. 

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld -- "Not that there's anything wrong with that..."  ;-)

[cinyc]

Who is Rothenberg?

One of the four trusted nonpartisan race raters.
The four trusted people are Stu Rotherberg, CQPolitics, Larry Sabato and Cook Political.

I'm quite confident Sabato's projections are entirely non-partisan.  His other ramblings strike me as fairly favorable to Republicans.

Sabato leans Democrat, not Republican.  He predicted Kerry would win for most of 2004, before finally claiming the race would be a tie in the electoral college.

Right.  But his editorial comments, in his weekly emails and newsletters reveal a very mild sympathy for Republican ideas.  He's exceptionally reliable and, no matter what venue I have seen him in, a pleasant and very smart man.  But based on nuance and the content of his analysis (not his predictions), he's a Republican. 

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld -- "Not that there's anything wrong with that..."  ;-)

The only federal candidate Sabato has contributed to was a Utah Democrat.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is not gloom and doom for McCain.  All the Arizona Senator has to do is defend ALL of his own leans, win ALL the tossups, take ALL of Obama's leans away from him AND win at least one likely Obama state.

No hay problema.

[JSojourner]

Who is Rothenberg?

One of the four trusted nonpartisan race raters.
The four trusted people are Stu Rotherberg, CQPolitics, Larry Sabato and Cook Political.

I'm quite confident Sabato's projections are entirely non-partisan.  His other ramblings strike me as fairly favorable to Republicans.

Sabato leans Democrat, not Republican.  He predicted Kerry would win for most of 2004, before finally claiming the race would be a tie in the electoral college.

Right.  But his editorial comments, in his weekly emails and newsletters reveal a very mild sympathy for Republican ideas.  He's exceptionally reliable and, no matter what venue I have seen him in, a pleasant and very smart man.  But based on nuance and the content of his analysis (not his predictions), he's a Republican. 

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld -- "Not that there's anything wrong with that..."  ;-)

The only federal candidate Sabato has contributed to was a Utah Democrat.

We have no idea who he has contributed to unless he tells us. 

And I never said he didn't like some Democrats or that he was some sort of hack.  I love the guy's maps and his analysis.  I'm just saying that if you get his emails and his printed materials, he sounds a bit more friendly to Republicans.  I hope it's okay if we can have different opinions on this.

[Torie]

Sabato is head over heels in love with Obama actually.