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| | | |-+  GA: Insider Advantage: Martin continues to underpoll Obama
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Author Topic: GA: Insider Advantage: Martin continues to underpoll Obama  (Read 1193 times)
Lunar
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« on: November 03, 2008, 09:22:34 pm »
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Chambliss (R) 48%, Martin (D) 43%

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_113_646.aspx

I can't imagine the Obama/Chambliss supporter.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2008, 09:30:42 pm »
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(Although this is IA = caveat emptor) Things like this are the reason why I feel nervous about calling the runoff. 

You see, the black% vis-a-vis overall voter turnout is only going to go down on election day.  If he didn't get their votes before, or more importantly the blacks simply ignored the second part of the ballot (which does happen), he may not have the overall % to keep Chambliss under 50%.

Strategic Vision, which is very good at Georgia polling (unlike IA), essentially says the same thing.  The only saving grace is Buckley, but I fear, like most 3rd party candidates, that he may overpoll.

Just a thought.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2008, 09:35:09 pm »
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To me, it's just a huge head-scratcher how a Southern Democratic candidate could underpoll the national one.  Could it be merely a reflection of how much more appealing Chambliss is over McCain?  That doesn't seem explanatory.   The AA vote ignoring Martin doesn't seem to explain the consistent marginal difference either.

I guess Martin is pretty liberal for a Southern Democrat.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2008, 09:47:29 pm »
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To me, it's just a huge head-scratcher how a Southern Democratic candidate could underpoll the national one.  Could it be merely a reflection of how much more appealing Chambliss is over McCain?  That doesn't seem explanatory.   The AA vote ignoring Martin doesn't seem to explain the consistent marginal difference either.

I guess Martin is pretty liberal for a Southern Democrat.

Well, Chambliss is polling better among AAs than McCain.  I'm pretty sure Saxby's old CD was heavy with black population, so that could be making a difference.
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